Rising Tide, Dispersing Waves: Opportunities and Challenges for Chinese Seapower Development

Abstract

This article surveys China’s current naval forces and considers key dynamics and possible Chinese naval futures to 2020, the projected end of Beijing’s ‘strategic window of opportunity’, the idea that a peaceful external environment for economic development, globalization, and integration of China into the global economy allows China to benefit from diversion of US attention to countering terrorism. It considers broad possibilities through 2030, the general limit of public US government projections, and by which time multiple factors will likely slow China’s growth and compete for leadership focus and resources.

Key Words:

• China
• Navy
• Maritime
• Strategy
• Near Seas
• Far Seas

Notes

¹ ‘Full text of Hu Jintao’s report at 18th Party Congress’, Xinhua, 17 Nov. 2012, <www.china-embassy.org/eng/zt/18th_CPC_National_Congress_Eng/t992917.htm>.

² Details from Sheila Melvin, who attended the performance.

³ Peter Dutton, ‘Three Disputes and Three Objectives: China and the South China Sea’, Naval War College Review 64/4 (Autumn 2011), 58, <www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/feb516bf-9d93-4d5c-80dc-d5073ad84d9b/Three-Disputes-and-Three-Objectives–China-and-the>.

⁴ Milan Vego, Naval Strategy and Operations in Narrow Seas (New York: Routledge 2003), 85-87.

⁵ Wang Jisi, ‘‘March West,’ China’s Geopolitical Rebalancing Strategy’, Global Times, 17 Oct. 2012, <http://opinion.huanqiu.com/opinion_world/2012-10/3193760.html>; Yang Yi, ‘Border Security Requires Comprehensive Strategy,’ Xinhua, 26 Oct. 2012, <http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2012-10/26/c_123875252.htm>.

⁶ Nan Li, ‘The Evolution of China’s Naval Strategy and Capabilities: From “Near Coast” and “Near Seas” to “Far Seas”’, Asian Security 5/2 (June 2009), 150, 156.

⁷ Command of the sea sufficient to allow one’s own vessels to operate freely in a given sea area by preventing opponent(s) from attacking them directly.

⁸ IISS, ‘Chapter 6: Asia’, The Military Balance 2014 (London: Routledge for IISS 2014), 233–5, <www.tandfonline.com/loi/tmib20?open=114&repitition=0#vol_114>.

⁹ Office of the Secretary of Defense [hereafter, OSD], Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2011, Annual Report to Congress, 43, <www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_china_report_final.pdf>.

¹⁰ Jesse Karotkin, Senior Intelligence Officer for China, Office of Naval Intelligence, ‘Trends in China’s Naval Modernization’, Testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 30 Jan. 2014, <www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Karotkin_Testimony1.30.14.pdf>.

¹¹ OSD (2011), 4.

¹² Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for US Navy Capabilities – Background and Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service, RL33153 (28 Feb. 2014), 7–15, <www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf>. All tonnages in this and the following section from the latest relevant entry on <www.janes.com>.

¹³ IISS, ‘Chapter 6: Asia,’ The Military Balance 2014, 208.

¹⁴ O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization, 8.

¹⁵ Karotkin, ‘Trends in China’s Naval Modernization’.’

¹⁶ OSD (2013), 6.

¹⁷ O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization, 12.

¹⁸ ‘Yuan Class (Type 041),’ Jane’s Fighting Ships, 23 Dec. 2013, <www.janes.com>.

¹⁹ OSD (2013), 7.

²⁰ Karotkin, ‘Trends in China’s Naval Modernization’.

²¹ IISS, ‘Chapter Six: Asia’, The Military Balance 2014, 208.

²² William Murray, ‘Underwater TELs and China’s Antisubmarine Warfare: Evolving Strength and Calculated Weakness’, in Peter Dutton, Andrew S. Erickson and Ryan Martinson (eds), China’s Near Seas Combat Capabilities, US Naval War College China Maritime Study 11 (Feb. 2014), 22–3, <www.usnwc.edu/Research—Gaming/China-Maritime-Studies-Institute/Publications.aspx>.

²³ O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization, 22.

²⁴ OSD (2011), 43.

²⁵ William Murray, ‘China’s Undersea Warfare: A USN Perspective’, paper presented at ‘China’s Strategy for the Near Seas’ Conference, China Maritime Studies Institute, US Naval War College, 11 May 2011.

²⁶ OSD (2013), 34.

²⁷ Karotkin, ‘Trends in China’s Naval Modernization’.

²⁸ OSD (2013), 7.

²⁹ Karotkin, ‘Trends in China’s Naval Modernization’.

³⁰ OSD (2013), 7.

³¹ Craig Murray, Andrew Berglund and Kimberly Hsu, ‘China’s Naval Modernization and Implications for the United States’, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission Staff Research Backgrounder, 26 Aug. 2013, 7, <http://origin.www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/Backgrounder_China’s%20Naval%20Modernization%20and%20Implications%20for%20the%20United%20States.pdf>.

³² ‘CSS-N-4 “Sardine” (YJ-8/YJ-8A/C-801); CSS-N-8 “Saccade” (YJ-82/YJ-83/C-802/C-802A/Noor/Ghader),’ Jane’s Naval Weapon Systems, 25 June 2013, <www.janes.com>.

³³ Murray, Berglund and Hsu, ‘China’s Naval Modernization’, 7.

³⁴ OSD (2013), 5.

³⁵ IISS, ‘Chapter 6: Asia’, The Military Balance 2014, 231.

³⁶ William Murray, ‘Underwater TELs and China’s Antisubmarine Warfare,’ 20.

³⁷ Ibid., 17–18, 24, 26.

³⁸ Ibid., 27.

³⁹ Liu Yanxun et al., ‘Background of Expedition to Somalia – Chinese Navy Pushes Forward to Deep Blue’, China News Weekly, 5 Jan. 2009, <http://mil.news.sina.com.cn/2008-12-31/1351537076.html>.

⁴⁰ OSD (2013), 11.

⁴¹ ‘Xi Jinping Inspects Guangzhou Military Region, Emphasizes Diligently Fortifying National Defense’, CNTV, 13 Dec. 2012, <http://v.chinamil.com.cn/news/2012-12/13/content_5140199.htm>.

⁴² ‘General Staff Department Makes Arrangement for Work on Military Training in New Year; Training to be Organized and Effectiveness to be Examined in Accordance with Actual Combat Requirements’, Military Report, CCTV-7 (Mandarin), 11:30 GMT, 14 Jan. 2013.

⁴³ Nan Li, ‘The Evolution of China’s Naval Strategy and Capabilities,’ 160.

⁴⁴ ‘Earnestly Step up Ability Building within CPC Organizations of Armed Forces’, Liberation Army Daily, 13 Dec. 2004, <www.chinamil.com.cn>.

⁴⁵ Liu Mingfu, Cheng Gang and Sun Xuefu, ‘The Historical Mission of the People’s Army Once Again Advances with the Times,’ Liberation Army Daily, 8 Dec. 2005, 6.

⁴⁶ Ding Yubao, Guo Yike and Zhou Genshan, ‘When Hu Jintao Met with the Naval Delegates at the 10th Party Congress, He Emphasized Building a Powerful People’s Navy That Meets the Requirements to Accomplish Historical Missions of Our Army in Accordance with the Principle of Unifying Revolutionization, Modernization, and Standardization’, People’s Navy, 28 Dec. 2006, 1.

⁴⁷ ‘Chinese President Calls for Strengthened, Modernized Navy,’ People’s Daily, 27 Dec. 2006.

⁴⁸ ‘Chinese President Calls for Strong Navy,’ VOA News, 28 Dec. 2006, <www.voanews.com>.

⁴⁹ The Diversified Employment of China’s Armed Forces (Beijing: Information Office of the State Council April 2013), <http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-04/16/c_132312681.htm>.

⁵⁰ Bernard Cole, ‘China’s Navy Prepares: Domestic Exercises, 2000–10’, in Roy Kamphausen, David Lai and Travis Tanner (eds), Learning by Doing: The PLA Trains at Home and Abroad (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College 2012), 56.

⁵¹ Ibid., 21.

⁵² Karotkin, ‘Trends in China’s Naval Modernization’.

⁵³ Report on the Implementation of the Central and Local Budgets in 2013 and on the Draft Central and Local Budgets for 2014, Second Session of the Twelfth National People’s Congress (Beijing: Ministry of Finance 5 March 2014), <http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/2014Budget_Eng.pdf>.

⁵⁴ IISS, ‘Chapter 6: Asia’, The Military Balance 2013, 210.

⁵⁵ Peter Dutton, ‘The Sino-Philippine Maritime Row: International Arbitration and the South China Sea’, East and South China Seas Bulletin 10, Center for a New American Security, 15 March 2013, <www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Bulletin_Dutton_TheSinoPhilippineMaritimeRow_0.pdf>.

⁵⁶ Nan Li, ‘The Evolution of China’s Naval Strategy and Capabilities’, 160.

⁵⁷ Phillip Saunders and Erik Quam, ‘Future Force Structure of the Chinese Air Force’, in Roy Kamphausen and Andrew Scobell (eds), Right-Sizing the People’s Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China’s Military (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College 2007), 381, <www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub784.pdf>.

⁵⁸ Nan Li, ‘The Evolution of China’s Naval Strategy and Capabilities,’ 168.

⁵⁹ Ibid., 161, 168.

⁶⁰ OSD (2011), 2.

⁶¹ OSD (2013), 56.

⁶² Ibid., 27.

⁶³ Nan Li, ‘The Evolution of China’s Naval Strategy and Capabilities’, 161, 168.

⁶⁴ ‘Track Record of Global Trends Works’, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (Washington DC: National Intelligence Council Dec. 2012), <www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/global-trends-2030>.

⁶⁵ Ibid., 15.

⁶⁶ At present, for instance, only Huludao Shipyard can build nuclear-powered submarines. Only the Huangpu and Hudong-Zhonghua shipyards can build Jiangkai IIs.

⁶⁷ Gabriel Collins, ‘Assessing China’s Key Defense Sectors: Shipbuilding’, presented at ‘China’s Defense Science, Technology, and Innovation System: Current State and Development Prospects over the Next Decade,’ Univ. of California Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), Washington DC Center, 15 Jan. 2013.

⁶⁸ Gabriel Collins and William Murray, ‘No Oil for the Lamps of China?’ Naval War College Review 61/2 (Spring 2008), 79–95, <www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/22821a31-a443-4bc7-95a6-54527ad8924a/No-Oil-for-the-Lamps-of-China—-Collins,-Gabriel->.

⁶⁹ Feng Liang (senior colonel and professor), Strategy Teaching and Research Section, and Duan Tingzhi (lieutenant colonel and associate professor); Naval Command College, ‘Characteristics of China’s Sea Geostrategic Security and Sea Security Strategy in the New Century’, China Military Science (Jan. 2007), 27.

⁷⁰ Peng Guangqian and Yao Youzhi (eds), The Science of Military Strategy (Beijing: Military Science Press 2005), 446.

⁷¹ Zhang Yuncheng, ‘Energy Security and Sea Lanes,’ in Yang Mingjie (ed.), Sea Lane Security and International Cooperation (Beijing: Current Affairs Press 2005), 124.

⁷² Karotkin, ‘Trends in China’s Naval Modernization’.

⁷³ Ibid.

⁷⁴ Ibid.

⁷⁵ Eric Pedersen, ‘Land- and Sea-Based C4ISR Infrastructure in China’s Near Seas,’ in China’s Near Seas Combat Capabilities, 80, 83–4.

⁷⁶ Richard Weitz, ‘Operation Somalia: China’s First Expeditionary Force?’ China Security 5/1 (Winter 2009), 38.

⁷⁷ Robert Ross, ‘China’s Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the US Response’, International Security 34/2 (Fall 2009), 46.

⁷⁸ Gao Yue, ‘Maritime Rights, Resources, and Security’, Modern Ships (Dec. 2004), 7.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Andrew S. Erickson

Dr Andrew S. Erickson is an associate professor in the Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) and an associate in research at Harvard’s Fairbank Center. He is the author of the Jamestown Foundation monograph Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Development and coauthor of the CMSI monograph Chinese Antipiracy Operations in the Gulf of Aden. He runs two research websites, <www.andrewerickson.com> and <www.chinasignpost.com>.