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Abstract
This article is the first academic study of Egyptian foreign policy towards Israel under Hosni Mubarak (1981–2011). It challenges a deeply entrenched conventional wisdom that Egypt pursued a cold-peace foreign policy towards Israel throughout this period. We demonstrate that Egyptian foreign policy towards Israel was dynamic – comprising cold peace (1981–91), a hybrid foreign policy of cold peace and strategic peace (1991–2003), and a pure strategic peace posture (2003–11). We also use the case of Egyptian foreign policy towards Israel as a heuristic to develop a conception of a new type of peace, strategic peace, as an intermediary analytical category between cold and stable peace.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Shani Orgad and Arie Kacowicz for their extremely helpful comments on earlier versions of this text.
Notes
1 The cold peace school of thought includes: Abdul-Monem Al-Mashat, ‘Egyptian Attitudes toward the Peace Process: Views of an “Alert Elite”’, Middle East Journal 37/3 (Citation1983), 394–411; Ali E. Hillal Dessouki, ‘Egyptian Foreign Policy since Camp David’, in William B. Quandt (ed), The Middle East: Ten Years After Camp David (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Citation1988); Fawaz A. Gerges, ‘Egyptian-Israeli Relations Turn Sour’, Foreign Affairs 74/3 (Citation1995), 69–78; Kenneth W. Stein, ‘Continuity and Change in Egyptian-Israeli Relations, 1973–1997’, Israel Affairs 3/3–4 (1997), 297–320; Shawn Pine, ‘Myopic Vision: Whither Israeli-Egyptian Relations?’ Israel Affairs 3/3–4 (Citation1997), 321–34; Duncan L. Clarke, ‘US Security Assistance to Egypt and Israel: Politically Untouchable?’, Middle East Journal 51/2 (1997), 200–14; Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, ‘Israel-Egypt Peace: Stable Peace?’, in Arie M. Kacowicz, Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, Ole Elgstrom, Magnus Jerneck (eds), Stable Peace Among Nations (London: Rowman & Littlefield Citation2000); Jacob Abadi, ‘Egypt’s Policy Toward Israel: The Impact of Foreign and Domestic Constraints’, Israel Affairs 12 (Citation2006), 156–176; Ewan Stein, ‘The “Camp David Consensus’’: Ideas, Intellectuals, and the Division of Labor in Egypt’s Foreign Policy toward Israel’, International Studies Quarterly 55 (Citation2011), 737–58.
2 See Karl. W. Deutsch, Political Community and the North Atlantic Area (Princeton UP Citation1957); Kenneth Boulding, Stable Peace (Austin: Univ. of Texas Press 1978); Stephen R. Rock, Why Peace Breaks Out: Great Power Rapprochement in Historical Perspective (Chapel Hill: Univ. of North Carolina Press Citation1989); Emanuel Adler and Michael Barnett (eds), Security Communities (Cambridge: Cambridge UP Citation1998); Stephen R. Rock, Appeasement in International Politics (Lexington: Univ. of Kentucky Press Citation2000); Arie Kacowicz, Yaakov Bar-Siman-Tov, Ole Elgstrom, and Magnus Jerneck (eds), Stable Peace Among Nations (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Citation2000); Charles A. Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace (Princeton UP 2010).
3 Kacowicz et al., Stable Peace; Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, 21.
4 Benjamin Miller, States, Nations, and the Great Powers (Cambridge: CUP Citation2007).
5 Ibid., 44; Kacowitz et al., Stable Peace, 11; Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, 21.
6 Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, fn. 2.
7 Miller, States, Nations, and the Great Powers, 46, 219–56, 308–8; Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, 30.
8 Kacowicz et al., Stable Peace, 11.
9 Miller, States, Nations, and the Great Powers, 20, 45.
10 Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics (London: Macmillan Press Citation1977), 194–23.
11 Michael C. Desch, When the World Matters: Latin America and United States Grand Strategy (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins UP Citation1993), 10; Paul A. Papayoanou, ‘Great Powers and Regional Orders: Possibilities and Prospects After the Cold War’, in David A. Lake and Patrick M. Morgan (eds), Regional Orders: Building Security in a New World (University Park, PA: Penn State UP Citation1997).
12 Benjamin Miller, ‘Sources of Regional Peace’, in Kacowicz et al., Stable Peace among Nations, 63; Miller, States, Nations and the Great Powers, 208–11.
13 Janice G. Stein, ‘Deterrence and Reassurance’, in Philip Tetlock et al., Behaviour, Society, and International Conflict (Oxford: OUP 1991); Saadia Touval, ‘The Superpowers as Mediators’, in Jacob Bercovitch and Jeffrey Z. Rubin (eds), Mediation in International Relations: Multiple Approaches to Conflict Management (New York: St Martin’s Press Citation1992).
14 Miller, States, Nations and the Great Powers, 219–20.
15 Deutsch, Political Community, 30–1, 40, 66; Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, 44–5,
16 We draw on: Kacowicz et al., Stable Peace, 25–6, 31; Boulding, Stable Peace, 112–13; Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, 24.
17 E.g. Boulding, Stable Peace, 17–18, 63; Deutsch, Political Community, 5, 36, 176–9; Kacowicz et al., Stable Peace, 14, 28; Bruce Russet, and Harvey Star, World Politics: The Menu of Choice, 4th ed. (New York: W.H. Freeman Citation1992), 376–98; Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, 46–50.
18 Alfred Tovias, ‘The Economic Aspects of Stable Peace-Making’, in Kacowicz et al., Stable Peace, 150–65.
19 On democratic peace theory see Christopher Layne, ‘Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace’, International Security 19/2 (1994), 5–49.
20 Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, 30. Some, e.g., Miller, States, Nations, and the Great Powers, 48–9, have opted for the notion of ‘warm peace’. However, the term stable peace is more common in debates and thus is adopted here.
21 See Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, 8–9.
22 See Emanuel Adler and Michael Barnett (eds), Security Communities (Cambridge: CUP Citation1998).
23 Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, 30.
24 Deutsch, Political Community, 5, 36; Boulding, Stable Peace, 13. See also Alexander L. George, ‘From Conflict to Peace: Stages along the Road’, United States Institute of Peace Journal 5/6 (1992), 7–9; Russet and Starr, World Politics: A Menu for Choice (New York: W.H. Freeman Citation1992), 356.
25 Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, 6.
26 Tovias, ‘The Economic Aspects’, 150–65; Kacowicz et al., Stable Peace, 17; Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends, 31.
27 Adler and Barnett, Security Communities, 3, 7.
28 Data retrieved from Steven A. Cook, The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square (Oxford: OUP Citation2011), 219–20.
29 Hermann Frederick Eilts, ‘The United States and Egypt’, in William B. Quandt (ed.), The Middle East: Ten Years After Camp David (Washington DC: The Brookings Institution Citation1988), 111–50.
30 See e.g., Mubarak’s speech on the anniversary of Nasser’s death, <http://wikileaks.org/cable/1986/11/86CAIRO26111.html>; memoirs of the then Egyptian Foreign Minister, Kamal Hasan Ali, Warriors and Peace Makers (Cairo: Al-Ahram Centre Citation1986), 265; Interviews with Mubarak by al-Tadamun, 5 Nov. 1983 and al-Ra’i al-‘Am, 8 Oct. 1986 quoted in Stein, ‘Continuity and Change’, 307.
31 The challenges include: 1981 bombing of the Iraqi Osirak reactor in Baghdad; annexation of the Golan Heights by Israel in 1981; 1982 invasion of Lebanon and the Beirut siege; the territorial dispute with Israel over Taba; repression of the 1987 Palestinian Intifada. Stein, ‘Continuity and Change’, 305–6; Abadi, ‘Egypt’s Policy’, 171.
32 See Egyptian and Israeli sources respectively: Ali, Warriors and Peace Makers, 247–51; Ephraim Dowek, Israeli-Egyptian Relations, 1980–2000 (London: Frank Cass Citation2001), 310–11.
33 See full text in: <http://new.mfa.gov.il/MFA/ForeignPolicy/Peace/Guide/Pages/Camp%20David%20Accords.aspx>.
34 E.g., by 1990 all cultural and social contacts had ceased, trade fell from US $80 million in 1982 to US $12 million in 1990, requirements for exit visas from Egypt to enter Israel remained in place. Dowek, Israeli-Egyptian Relations, 110–15.
35 Nabil Fahmy quoted in David Sultan, Between Cairo and Jerusalem: The Normalisation between the Arab States and Israel – the Case of Egypt (Tel Aviv: The Institute for Diplomacy and Regional Cooperation Citation2007), 24.
36 Dowek, Israeli-Egyptian Relations, 67–8.
37 Stein, ‘Continuity and Change’, 304.
38 Ibid., 128.
39 Interview with Mr Mayor Admon, Deputy Head of International Department, Israeli Ministry of Finance, 16 Aug. 2012.
40 Dowek, Israeli-Egyptian Relations, 67–8, 85–99.
41 Stein, ‘Continuity and Change’; Abadi, ‘Egypt’s Policy towards Israel’, 173.
42 Gerges, ‘Egyptian-Israeli Relations’, 69–73, 75–8.
43 Siman-Tov, ‘Israel-Egypt Peace’, 231–5.
44 Pine, ‘Myopic Vision’.
45 Rami Ginat and Meir Noema, Egypt and the Second Palestinian Intifada: Policymaking with Multifaceted Commitments (Brighton, UK: Sussex Academic Press Citation2011).
46 Cook, The Struggle for Egypt, 161–2; Dowek, Israeli-Egyptian Relations, 306–8.
47 Alan Richards and John Waterbury, A Political Economy of the Middle East (Boulder, CO: Westview Citation2008), 248–52.
48 On the Egyptian role in Madrid see Dennis Ross, The Missing Peace (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux 2004), 71–81; Ephraim Halevy, Man in the Shadows: Inside the Middle East Crisis with a Man who Led the Mossad (Tel Aviv: Matar Citation2006), 101; on the 4 May agreement see Ross, The Missing Peace, 134–6; Uri Savir, The Process (Tel Aviv: Yediot Achronot Citation1998), 162–7; on the interim agreement see Ross, The Missing Peace, 207; Savir, The Process, 259–76; On Egyptian contribution see also Bill Clinton, My Life (London: Arrow Books Citation2004), 702.
49 E.g., Jordan signing a peace with Israel in 1994, initiation of relations between Israel, the Gulf, and the Maghreb states, and intermittent Israeli-Syrian negotiations. See Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, <www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Facts+About+Israel/Among+the+Nations/ISRAEL+AMONG+THE+NATIONS-+Middle+East+-+North+Afri.htm>.
50 Interview with former Israeli Ambassador to Egypt, Mr Zvi Mazel, Oct. 2012, Jerusalem. See also Ronen Bergman, The Point of No Return (Tel Aviv: Kineret, Zmora-Bitan Citation2007), 266–7; For a different view see Fawaz Gerges, ‘The End of the Islamist Insurgency in Egypt? Costs and Prospects’, Middle East Journal 54/4 (Citation2000), 604–5.
51 Anoushiravan Etheshami, ‘The Foreign Policy of Iran’, in Raymond Hinnebusch and Anoushiravan Etheshami, The Foreign Policy of Middle Eastern States (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Citation2002), 300.
52 Sultan, Between Cairo and Jerusalem, 89–91; for a broader overview of Egyptian attitudes to Hizballah, see Gawdat Bahgat, ‘Egyptian-Iranian Relations: Retrospect and Prospect’, Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies 35/1 (Citation2010), 15.
53 Dowek, Israeli-Egyptian Relations, 275–301; Halevy, Man in the Shadows, 108–10; Sultan, Between Cairo and Jerusalem, 39–46, 98, 102; briefing with Israeli security official, 29 Oct. 2013, Tel Aviv.
54 E.g. Muhammad Sid Ahmad, Ba‘du An taskuta al-madafi‘a (Beirut: Dar al-Qadaya Citation1975).
55 Al-Ahram, 14 Oct. 1994.
56 Al-Ahram, 7 Oct. 1994, 1 Oct. 1995, 18 Oct. 1995.
57 Ali Salem, Rihala Ila Israil (Cairo: Akhbar al-Yawm 1994).
58 Lutfi al-Khuli, Arab? Na’am, wa-Sharq Awsatiun Aydan (Cairo: Dar al-Shuruq Citation1997); see also Sa‘id al-Najjar, Tajdid al-Nitham al-Iqtisadi wa-al-siyasi fi Misr Vol. 1 (Cairo: Dar al-Shuruq Citation1997).
59 Ewan Stein, ‘The Camp David Consensus: Ideas, Intellectuals, and the Division of Labor in Egypt’s Foreign Policy towards Israel’, International Studies Quarterly 55 (2011), 752
60 Stein, ‘The Camp David Consensus’, 750–4.
61 Lutfi al-Khuli’s private papers obtained by authors.
62 For details see <www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/990707/1999070753.html>.
63 Sultan, Between Cairo and Jerusalem, 103.
64 E.g., comments made by Kamel Diab, Akhbar al-Yawm, 12 Feb. 1994; similar views were aired by Hasin Sabur, President of the Egyptian-US Chamber of Commerce, and his deputy, Mahmud Shafik Jaber, Ahbar. See respectively, Akhbar al-Yawm, 5 Feb. 1994, and 19 Feb. 1994. See also the prominent Egyptian businessman and thinker, Tarek Heggy, <www.tarek-heggy.com/>, and Mahmoud Abd-Al-Aziz, a key figure in the Egyptian banking community and former chair of the board of directors of Al-Ahali Bank see Akhbar al-Yawm, 26 Feb. 1994.
65 On the rise of the Egyptian business elite and its ties with the Mubarak regime see Cook, The Struggle for Egypt, 159–61.
66 Interview with Mr Gabby Bar, Senior Regional Director Middle East & North Africa Division, Israeli Ministry of Trade, Jerusalem, 30 Oct. 2012.
67 ‘Egyptian-Israeli Cooperation Review’, Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, document obtained by the author; see also comments by Advisor to the Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation Engineer Fouad Abou-Hadab, <www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Mashav%20–%20International%20Development/Publications/1998/Agricultural%20Cooperation%20Between%20Israel%20and%20Egypt>.
68 ‘Egyptian-Israeli Cooperation Review’, Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
69 Sultan, Between Cairo and Jerusalem, 105.
70 Carmit Gai, Dov Lautman (Or Yehuda: Kineret Bitan Citation2011), 192–9.
71 Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, <www1.cbs.gov.il/www/statistical/ftrade2005_e.pdf>.
72 Interview with Abdel Moneim Said, conducted on 5 November 2012, in Cairo.
73 ‘Ziyara laha ahamiyatha al-siyasiyya waal-iqtisadiyya’, al-Ahram, 9 March 2001; Al-‘alaqat al-misriyya al-amrikiyya’, al-Ahram, 19, 23 March 2001.
74 Cable 01CAIRO6321, US Embassy, Cairo, 4 Oct. 2001, <http://wikileaks.org/cable/2001/10/01CAIRO6321.html>.
75 Cable 05CAIRO2693, US Embassy, Cairo, ‘Egypt and the Fight against Terrorism’, 6 April 2005, <http://wikileaks.org/cable/2005/04/05CAIRO2693.html>.
76 For an extensive discussion of this issue see Open Society Justice Initiative ‘Globalizing Torture’: CIA Secret Detention and Extraordinary Rendition, <www.opensocietyfoundations.org/sites/default/files/globalizing-torture-20120205.pdf>.
77 Reuters, ‘US Waived Congress Restriction on Egyptian Aid’, <www.reuters.com/article/2008/03/04/us-egypt-us-waiver-idUSL0482173620080304>. Cook, The Struggle for Egypt, 220–30.
78 ‘Bush calls for moral vision in the Middle East’, CNN, <http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/06/03/bush.egypt/index.html?_s=PM:WORLD>.
79 Abbas, Sharon, ‘Declare an end to violence’, Ynet, <www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3042665,00.html>.
80 Dov Weissglass, Ariel Sharon: A Prime Minister (Tel Aviv: Yediot Ahronoth Citation2012), 269.
81 Moshe Ya’alon, The Longer Shorter Way (Tel Aviv: Yediot Ahronoth Citation2008), 171–2.
82 Weissglass, Ariel Sharon, 270.
83 Interview with senior security Israeli official, 29 Oct. 2012, Tel Aviv.
84 Interview with senior Israeli diplomat prominent in the Egyptian-Israeli relationship since 2000, 31 Oct. 2012, Jerusalem.
85 Cable 08CAIRO1878, Scobey, Cairo, ‘Strategy for the Gaza border’, 25 Aug. 2008, <http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08CAIRO1878.html>.
86 Cable 08CAIRO561, from US Embassy, Cairo, ‘Gaza Border update’, 19 March 2008, <http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/03/08CAIRO561.html>
87 Yoav Stern and Avi Issascharof, ‘Egypt: we will break the hand of those who cross the border’, <www.haaretz.co.il/hasite/objectives/pages>.
88 Congressional Research Service, Report RL33003, 23–4, <http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33003>.
89 Interview Moneim Said.
90 Cable 08CAIRO2255, US Embassy, Cairo, ‘A/S Welch’s meeting with Field Marshal Tantawi’, 26 Oct. 2008, <http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08CAIRO2255.html>.
91 Cable 06CAIRO5031, US Embassy, Cairo, ‘Israeli Embassy on Status relations with Egypt’, 14 Aug. 2006, <http://wikileaks.org/cable/2006/08/06CAIRO5031.html>; interview senior Israeli diplomat, 13 Oct. 2012, Jerusalem.
92 Zvi Barel, ‘Egypt’s Top Enemy’, Ha’aretz, 10 April 2009, <www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/egypt-s-top-enemy-1.273841>.
93 Cable 09CAIRO358, Scobey, Cairo, ‘What does Egypt want out of the Gaza’, 26 Feb. 2009, <http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/02/09CAIRO358.html>.
94 Cable 09CAIRO667, Scobey, Cairo, ‘CODEL Tauscher’s meeting with MINDEF Tantawi’, 16 April 2009, <http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09CAIRO667.html>.
95 Weissglass, Ariel Sharon, 117.
96 Weissglass, Ariel Sharon, 268; Close relations existed also between Israeli and Egyptian security officials; see reports on quadrilateral security meetings (Egypt, Israel, the US, and the Palestinians conducted on 11 March and 3 April 2007 before Hamas’s takeover of the Gaza Strip; memorandum to Saeb Erekat from Palestinian Negotiations Support Unit, a meeting report – 2nd quadrilateral Security Meeting, 3 April 2007, <www.ajtransparency.com/files/1617.PDF;content> of the 1st quadrilateral Security Meeting of 11 March 2007, <www.ajtransparency.com/files/5135.PDF>.)
97 On the QIZ see Vikash Yadav, ‘The Political Economy of the Egyptian-Israeli QIZ Trade Agreement’, Middle East Review of International Affairs 11/1 (Citation2007), 74–92.
98 Yadav, ‘The Political Economy’, 74.
99 Interview Mr Gabby Bar, who coordinated the signing of the QIZ on the Israeli side.
100 Gabby Bar and Abdel Moneim Said interviews.
101 Interview Muneim Said who presided over the campaign.
102 Interview Gabby Bar.
103 Interview Gabby Bar.
104 Holdings in EMG included: The Egyptian business man, Hussein Salem (28 per cent); the Egyptian national gas company (10 per cent) the Thai company, PTT; Sam Zel and David Fisher (12 per cent); Israeli institutional investors and the private company, Ampel, an Israeli consortium controlled by Yossi Meiman (25 per cent). See Avi Bar-Eli, ‘Egypt demands to open agreement with the Israeli Electrical Company’, Haaretz, 10 June 2008.
105 Shmuel Even, ‘Egypt’s Revocation of the Natural Gas Agreement with Israel: Strategic Implications’, INSS Insight, No. 332, 6 May 2012, <www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=21&incat=&read=6488>.
106 Avi Bar-Eli, ‘Gas supply from Egypt to Israel commences’, Haaretz, 30 April 2008.
107 In Feb. 2009, the Egyptian Supreme Court rejected an appeal and put an end to the legal challenges opposing the deal. Avi Bar-Eli, ‘The Egyptian Supreme Court authorizes gas supply to Israel’, Haaretz, 2 Feb. 2009.
108 Avi Bar-Eli, ‘Meiman returns to the market: Egypt and EMG signed the new gas prices’, Haaretz, 23 Feb. 2009.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Amnon Aran
Amnon Aran is a Senior Lecturer in International Politics of the Middle East at City University London. His research interests lie in the foreign policy of Middle Eastern states, the Arab-Israeli conflict, and Foreign Policy Analysis. Most recently he has published a co-authored monograph (with Chris Alden), Foreign Policy Analysis: New Approaches (Abingdon: Routledge, 2012).
Rami Ginat
Rami Ginat is Professor of Middle East politics and international relations at Bar Ilan University. His most recent publications on Egypt include A History of Egyptian Communism: Jews and their Compatriots in Quest of Revolution (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2011); and (With Meir Noema), Egypt and the Second Palestinian Intifada, Policymaking with Multifaceted Commitments (Brighton and Portland: Sussex Academic Press, 2011).