Eight Lost Years? Nixon, Ford, Kissinger and the Non-Proliferation Regime, 1969–1977

ABSTRACT

The years following the signature of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968 have generally been seen as a period of neglect in US non-proliferation policy. While joining recent scholarship questioning this, the article also shows that the policies that emerged from the Nixon–Ford years were the product of a broad range of factors that constrained both the United States’ ability and willingness to build an effective non-proliferation regime. These included the Nixon administration’s initial skepticism regarding the NPT, as well as the global dispersion of power away from the US, combined with the continued importance of anti-Soviet containment.

KEYWORDS:

• Nuclear proliferation
• Richard Nixon
• Gerald Ford
• Henry Kissinger
• NPT

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers of the Journal of Strategic Studies, as well as Nick Miller, for their insightful comments on this article.

Notes

¹ Prominent examples include: Francis J. Gavin, Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in America’s Atomic Age (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 2012) 75–102; Shane J. Maddock, Nuclear Apartheid: The Quest for American Atomic Supremacy from World War II to the Present (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press 2010); Dane Swago, ‘The United States and the Role of Nuclear Co-operation and Assistance in the Design of the Non-Proliferation Treaty’, International History Review 36/2 (2014), 210–29.

² John Dumbrell, Lyndon Johnson and Soviet Communism (Manchester: Manchester University Press 2004); Glenn T. Seaborg, Stemming the Tide: Arms Control in the Johnson Years (Lexington, MA: Lexington Books 1986); Thomas A. Schwartz, Lyndon Johnson and Europe: In the Shadow of Vietnam (Cambridge, MA: Harvard UP 2003). On LBJ and nuclear arms control outside of the NPT, see: Hal Brands, ‘Progress Unseen: US Arms Control Policy and the Origins of Détente, 1963–1968’, Diplomatic History 30/2 (2006), 253–85.

³ The best existing historical overviews of this period are: Michael J. Brenner, Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation: The Remaking of US Policy (Cambridge: CUP 1981) and Nicholas L. Miller, ‘Hegemony and Nonproliferation’, doctoral dissertation, MIT, 2014. Important recent works have covered elements of this story, notably: William J. Burr, ‘A Scheme of “Control”: The United States and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, 1974–1976’, International History Review 36/2 (2014), 252–76; Fabian Hilfrich, ‘Roots of Animosity: Bonn’s Reactions to US Pressures on Nonproliferation’, International History Review 36/2 (2014), 277–301; Or Rabinowitz and Nicholas Miller, ‘Keeping the Bombs in the Basement: US Nonproliferation Policy toward Israel, South, Africa, and Pakistan’, International Security 40/1 (2015), 47–86; Peter Tzeng, ‘Nuclear Leverage: US Interventions in Sensitive Technology Transfers in the 1970s’, Nonproliferation Review 20/3 (2013), 473–92; J. Samuel Walker, ‘Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation: The Controversy over Nuclear Exports, 1974–1980’, Diplomatic History 25/2 (2000), 215–49.

⁴ Richard Nixon, RN: The Memoirs of Richard Nixon (London: Arrow Books 1978) 465; Richard Nixon, In the Arena: A Memoir of Victory, Defeat, and Renewal (New York: Simon and Schuster 1990) 330, 346–7.

⁵ Henry Kissinger, White House Years (Boston: Little, Brown and Company 1979) 49, 97; Henry Kissinger, Years of Upheaval (Boston: Little, Brown and Company 1982) 1129; There are no entries for nuclear proliferation in Henry Kissinger, Years of Renewal (New York: Simon and Schuster 1999), which deals with the period when the subject became a major preoccupation for top-level US policymakers.

⁶ Gavin, Nuclear Statecraft, 116–8.

⁷ H-Diplo Roundtable Review of Barbara Zanchetta, The Transformation of American International Power in the 1970s <https://networks.h-net.org/system/files/contributed-files/roundtable-xvi-11.pdf>.

⁸ Daniel J. Sargent, A Superpower Transformed: The Remaking of American Foreign Relations in the 1970s (New York: OUP 2015) 229–60.

⁹ Richard Nixon, ‘Address Accepting the Presidential Nomination at the Republican National Convention in Miami Beach, Florida’, 8 August 1968 <http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25968>.

¹⁰ Gavin, Nuclear Statecraft, 104–8, 117. Kissinger’s outlook prior to joining the Nixon administration was a little more complex. In 1957, he claimed that nuclear proliferation to Western Europe, if not the decolonized world, would ‘be to our net strategic advantage’ and a treaty to prevent global proliferation was ‘almost out of the question’ (Henry Kissinger, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy [New York: Harper and Brothers 1957] 198, 213, 264). However, in 1961, he both argued that nuclear proliferation would be destabilizing (Burr, ‘Scheme of “Control”’, 257) and sketched out non-proliferation arrangements similar to the eventual NPT; Henry Kissinger, The Necessity for Choice: Prospects of American Foreign Policy (New York: Harper and Brothers 1961), 240–57. He continued to support non-proliferation in the mid-1960s (Henry Kissinger, The Troubled Partnership: A Re-appraisal of the Atlantic Alliance [New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company 1965], 169–70), but paid the NPT very little attention in final work before entering government (Henry Kissinger, American Foreign Policy: Three Essays [New York: W.W. Norton and Company 1974], 70, 73). Once in the administration, however, Kissinger seems to have been content to conform to Nixon’s views and retained a sceptical stance towards many non-proliferation initiatives under Ford.

¹¹ Arthur Goldberg, ‘Memo for the President on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons from Representative to the UN, 22 March 1966, Secret’, in Nuclear Non-Proliferation Unpublished Collection, Box 8, File 5705 Israel, National Security Archive, Washington DC.

¹² Brands, ‘Progress Unseen’, 282.

¹³ ‘Summary Notes of the 594th Meeting of the National Security Council’, 25 November 1968, in Evans Gerakas, David S. Patterson and Carolyn B. Yee (eds.), F[oreign] R[elations] [of the] U[nited] S[tates], 1964–1968, Volume XI, Arms Control and Disarmament (Washington DC: GPO 1997) Document 293.

¹⁴ Or Rabinowitz Interview with Morton Halperin, 12 June 2013, Washington DC. This logic was reflected in National Security Decision Memorandum 6, 5 February 1969, David I. Goldman and David C. Humphrey (eds.), F[oreign] R[elations] [of the] U[nited] S[tates], 1969–1972, Volume E-2: Documents on Arms Control and Nonproliferation (Washington DC: GPO 2007) Document 8.

¹⁵ Richard M. Nixon, ‘Remarks at a Ceremony Marking the Ratification and Entry into Force of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons’, Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, [The] A[merican] P[residency] P[roject] <http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=2900>.

¹⁶ ‘Summary Notes of the 594th Meeting of the National Security Council’, 25 November 1968, in FRUS, 1964–1968, Vol. XI, Document 293.

¹⁷ ‘Notes of Telephone Conversation between the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger) and President Nixon, Washington’, 19 November 1969, in FRUS, 1969–76, Vol. E-2, Document 41.

¹⁸ Francis J. Gavin, ‘Strategies of Inhibition: US Grand Strategy, the Nuclear Revolution, and Nonproliferation’, International Security 40/1 (2015), 34–5.

¹⁹ Gavin, Nuclear Statecraft, 105, 116–8.

²⁰ Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power (New York: Harper Collins 2007) 278.

²¹ Kissinger, ‘Conversation Between President Nixon and his Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger)’, 13 June 1972, FRUS, 1969–76, Vol. E-2, Document 58.

²² Ibid.

²³ Gavin, Nuclear Statecraft, 105, 116–8.

²⁴ Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with the Bomb (New York: Columbia University Press 2011) 1–34; Avner Cohen and William Burr, ‘Don’t Like That Israel Has the Bomb? Blame Nixon’, Foreign Policy, 12 September 2014 <http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/09/12/dont-like-that-israel-has-the-bomb-blame-nixon/>.

²⁵ Rodger P. Davis to Henry Kissinger, ‘Israeli Nuclear Weapons Program: Issues and Course of Actions’, 17 October 1969, National Archives, Washington DC. <http://www.archives.gov/declassification/iscap/pdf/2009-076-doc1.pdf>.

²⁶ Rabinowitz and Miller, ‘Keeping the Bombs in the Basement’, 47–86.

²⁷ Henry Kissinger to Richard Nixon, 19 July 1969, in National Security Council files, box 0612, Israeli Nuclear Program, Richard Nixon Presidential Library, Yorba Linda, California.

²⁸ Cohen, Worst-Kept Secret, 1–34.

²⁹ ‘Meeting with Eisaku Sato, Japanese Prime Minister, on Friday’, 7 January 1972, in Japan and the United States: Diplomatic, Security and Economic Relations, 1960–1976, Digital National Security Archive, Item Number: JU0150.

³⁰ Ibid.

³¹ ‘Conversation Between President Nixon and his Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger), Washington, 13 June 1972‘, FRUS 1969–76, Vol. E-2, Document 58.

³² Richard H. Ullman, ‘The Covert French Connection’, Foreign Policy 75 (Summer 1989) 3–33.

³³ ‘Conversation Between President Nixon and his Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger), Washington, 13 June 1972‘, in FRUS 1969–76, Vol. E-2, Document 58.

³⁴ Henry Kissinger to Richard Nixon, ‘Follow-up Actions on Military Cooperation with the French, 10 March 1970‘, in H[istory] [and] P[ublic] P[olicy] P[rogram] D[igital] A[rchive], Nixon Presidential Library and Museum, National Security Council Files (NSCF), box 676, France vol. V 01 Feb 70–Apr 70. Obtained and contributed by William Burr <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/113682>.

³⁵ Henry Kissinger to Richard Nixon, ‘Military Cooperation with France’, 25 March 1971, HPPDA, Nixon Presidential Library and Museum, National Security Council Files (NSCF), Box 677, France vol. VII, 1 Oct 70–Mar 71. Obtained and contributed by William Burr <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/112246>.

³⁶ William Burr, ‘US Secret Assistance to the French Nuclear Program, 1969–1975: From Fourth Country to Strategic Partner’, 12 July 2011 <https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/us-secret-assistance-to-the-french-nuclear-program-1969-1975-fourth-country-to-strategic>.

³⁷ ‘Memorandum of Conversation with Robert Galley’, 27 July 1973, HPPDA, Nixon Presidential Library, HAK Office Files (HAKO), Box 56, French Exchanges (2 of 2). Obtained and contributed by William Burr <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/113223>; ‘Memorandum of Conversation—Kissinger and Schlesinger’, 5 September 1973, HPPDA, Ford Presidential Library, Gerald R. Ford Papers, National Security Adviser, Memoranda of Conversation, box 2, 5 September 1973 – Kissinger, Schlesinger. Obtained and contributed by William Burr and included in NPIHP Research Update #2. <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/113232>. See also, Burr, ‘US Secret Assistance to the French Nuclear Program’.

³⁸ Ullman, ‘The Covert French Connection’, 3–4.

³⁹ Gavin, Nuclear Statecraft, 117–8.

⁴⁰ Richard Nixon, ‘Informal Remarks in Guam with Newsmen’, 25 June 1969, APP <http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=2140>.

⁴¹ Cohen, Worst-Kept Secret, 27–8.

⁴² Gavin, ‘Strategies of Inhibition’, 10.

⁴³ Rabinowitz and Miller, ‘Keeping the Bombs in the Basement’, 47–86.

⁴⁴ Gavin, Nuclear Statecraft, 116–8.

⁴⁵ Bernard Weinraub, ‘India Rules Out Atomic Arms’, New York Times, 23 May 1974, 6; Rikhi Jaipal, ‘The Indian Nuclear Explosion’, International Security 1/4 (1977) 44.

⁴⁶ ‘Intelligence Community Staff, Post Mortem Report, An Examination of the Intelligence Community’s Performance Before the Indian Nuclear Test of May 1974‘, July 1974, Document 21, Willam Burr (ed.), National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 367 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb367/docs/7-74%20post-mortem.pdf>.

⁴⁷ ‘Indian nuclear test explosion’, From the British High Commission in New Delhi, to the Foreign Office, London’, 22 May 1974, in Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) file 66-653, T[he] N[atioal] A[rchive], [Surrey, UK].

⁴⁸ Dennis Kux, Estranged Democracies: India and the United States 1941–1991 (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press 1993) 315.

⁴⁹ ‘Indian nuclear explosion’, confidential cable 211735z from British embassy in Washington to Foreign Office, London, 20 May 1974, FCO file 66-653, TNA.

⁵⁰ George Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation (Berkley, CA: University of California Press 1999) 184.

⁵¹ Walker, ‘Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation’, 222.

⁵² ‘Meeting with British Officials, Memorandum of Conversation’, 7 July 1974 in William Burr (ed.), The Kissinger Transcripts: A Verbatim Record of American Diplomacy, Digital National Security Archive, KT01245.

⁵³ ‘Executive Secretary George S. Springsteen to Secretary of State Kissinger‘, Analytical Staff Meeting’, enclosing ‘Discussion Paper on US Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy’, 11 July 1974, HPPDA, RG, 59, Executive Secretariat Records, Memorandums of the Executive Secretariat, 1964–1975, Box 12, S/S Staff Meeting <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/119775>.

⁵⁴ ‘Memorandum of Conversation Energy; North Sea Oil; Foreign Assistance; Nuclear Non-Proliferation; CSCE; Trade Bill’, 7 July, HPPDA, RG 59, Office of the Counselor, 1955–77, Helmut Sonnenfeldt, Box 4, Britain 1974. Obtained and contributed by William Burr <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/119774>.

⁵⁵ Burr, ‘Scheme of “Control”’, 254.

⁵⁶ George Springsteen, ‘Transcript, Under Secretary Sisco’s Principals’ and Regionals’ Staff Meeting, Friday, 21 June 1974‘, in National Security Archive EBB 467, Document 3 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb467/docs/doc%203%20Sisco.pdf>.

⁵⁷ ‘Indian nuclear explosion and Future of NPT’, Cable 181746z from London Foreign Office to embassies in Ottawa, Washington, Moscow and New Delhi, 20 June 1974. In: FCO file 66-604, TNA.

⁵⁸ ‘Your telegram no. 1413: NPT and the Indian nuclear explosion ‘confidential cable from British embassy, Washington to Foreign office, London, 4 July 1974, FCO file 66-604, TNA.

⁵⁹ ‘Meeting with British Officials’, 7 July 1974, in Kissinger Transcripts, Digital National Security Archive, KT01245.

⁶⁰ ‘Congressional Testimony by Secretary Kissinger On Nuclear Test and Aid to India’, 24 July 1974, in: RG 59, General Records of the Department of State, Policy Planning Council, Director’s files (Winston Lord) 1969–1977 [Winston Lord Papers], Box 344, N[ational] A[rchives] [and] R[ecords] A[dministration], [College Park, MD].

⁶¹ George Springsteen, ‘Analytical Staff Meeting, 11 July 1974, enclosing “Discussion Paper on US Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy”’, Document 5, William Burr (ed.), N[ational] S[ecurity] A[rchive] E[lectronic] B[riefing] B[ook] 467 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb467/docs/doc%205%207-11-74%20discussion%20paper%20for%20staff%20meeting.pdf>.

⁶² ‘National Security Study Memorandum (NSSM) 202 on Nuclear Proliferation’, 23 May 1974, HPPDA, Nixon Presidential Library, National Security Council Institutional Files, Study Memorandums (1969–1974), Box H-205, Obtained by Fundação Getulio Vargas <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/115172>.

⁶³ Lawrence Scheihman, ‘The Pendulum Swings while the Clock Ticks’, in Joseph F. Pilat (ed.), The Nonproliferation Predicament (New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers 1985) 12–14.

⁶⁴ Major works on the Nixon Doctrine, as applied to various regions include: Matias Spektor, Kissinger e o Brasil (Rio de Janeiro: Zahar 2009); Roham Alvandi, Kissinger and the Shah: The United States and Iran in the Cold War (New York: OUP 2014).

⁶⁵ ‘The Secretary’s Analytical Meeting on Non-Proliferation’, 2 August 1974, HPPDA, RG 59, Transcripts of Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger Staff Meetings, 1973–1977, Box 4, Obtained and contributed by William Burr <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/119777>.

⁶⁶ ‘Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: Status of the Treaty’, United Nation’s Office of Disarmament Affairs, accessed 12 July 2015 <http://disarmament.un.org/treaties/t/npt>.

⁶⁷ ‘Transcript, Under Secretary Sisco’s Principals’ and Regionals’ Staff Meeting, Friday, 21 June 1974‘, 24 June 1974, in NSA EBB 467, Document 3 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb467/docs/doc%203%20Sisco.pdf>.

⁶⁸ ‘Department of State Briefing Paper: Nuclear Non-Proliferation – Japan’, November 1974, Japan and the US, 1960–1976, Digital National Security Archive. Henry Kissinger to Gerald Ford, ‘Your Visit to Japan’, undated, National Security Adviser, Trip Briefing Books and Cables for President Ford, 1974–1976, Box 2, GFL.

⁶⁹ ‘National Security Study Memorandum (NSSM) 202 on Nuclear Proliferation’, 23 May 1974, HPPDA, Nixon Presidential Library, National Security Council Institutional Files, Study Memorandums (1969–1974), Box H-205, Obtained by Fundação Getulio Vargas <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/115172>.

⁷⁰ ‘Memorandum of Conversation Energy; North Sea Oil; Foreign Assistance; Nuclear Non-Proliferation; CSCE; Trade Bill’, 7 July 1974, HPPDA, RG 59, Office of the Counselor, 1955–77, Helmut Sonnenfeldt, Box 4, Britain 1974. Obtained and contributed by William Burr <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/119774>.

⁷¹ Burr, ‘Scheme of “Control”’, 253.

⁷² Ibid., 263–4.

⁷³ Further NSG concessions are detailed in: Scheihman, ‘The Pendulum Swings while the Clock Ticks’, 13–17.

⁷⁴ ‘Memorandum from George S. Vest to Secretary of State, “September 16–17 Nuclear Suppliers’ Meeting”’, 23 September 1975, HPPDA, State department release from P-reels. Obtained and contributed by William Burr Annotations added by William Burr <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/119796>; George Vest to Helmut Sonnenfeldt, ‘British Comprehensive Safeguards Initiative re Suppliers Conference’, 10 October 1975, HPPDA, RG 59, Office of the Counselor, 1955–1977, Box 7, FSE 3 Nuclear Suppliers Conference. Obtained and contributed by William Burr <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/119798>; Burr, ‘Scheme of “Control”’, 268.

⁷⁵ Fred Ikle and Winston Lord to Henry Kissinger, ‘Analytic Staff Meeting on Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategy, Annex A: France and Other Key Suppliers’, 31 July 1974, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, RG 59, Records of the Policy Planning Staff, Director’s Files (Winston Lord), 1969–1977, Box 344, July 1974. Obtained and contributed by William Burr <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/119776>.

⁷⁶ Gerald Ford to James Schlesinger, ‘Missile Cooperation with France’, 23 June 1975, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, National Archives, Record Group 59, Office of the Counselor (Helmut Sonnenfeldt) 1955–77, box 14. Obtained and contributed by William Burr and included in NPIHP Research Update #2 <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/112424>.

⁷⁷ ‘Appendix: Guidelines for Nuclear Transfers’, Federation of American Scientists <http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/nsg/text/inf254.htm>.

⁷⁸ Burr, ‘Scheme of “Control”’, 268–9.

⁷⁹ ‘The Secretary’s Analytical Meeting on Non-Proliferation’, 2 August 1974, HPPDA, RG 59, Transcripts of Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger Staff Meetings, 1973–1977, Box 4, Obtained and contributed by William Burr <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/119777>.

⁸⁰ Burr, ‘Scheme of “Control”’, 270; ‘Appendix: Guidelines for Nuclear Transfers’, Federation of American Scientists <http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/nsg/text/inf254.htm>.

⁸¹ For a discussion of the Symington Amendment’s long-term impact, see: Nicholas L. Miller, ‘The Secret Success of Nonproliferation Sanctions’, International Organization 68/4 (2014), 913–44.

⁸² Rebecca K.C. Hersman and Robert Peters, ‘Nuclear U-Turns: Learning from South Korean and Taiwanese Rollback’, Nonproliferation Review 13/3 (November 2006) 541; Winston Lord and Martin Packman to Henry Kissinger, ‘Second Alert Report’, 20 November 1974, in: Winston Lord Papers, Box 348, NARA.

⁸³ Tzeng, ‘Nuclear Leverage’, 476.

⁸⁴ Miller, ‘Hegemony and Nonproliferation’, 143–4.

⁸⁵ ‘Korean Reprocessing – The Next Step’, memo for the secretary, 18 November 1975, Winston Lord Papers, Box 362, NARA.

⁸⁶ ‘Your meetings with the French and the Canadian ambassadors on Korean Reprocessing’ 4 December 1975, Winston Lord Papers, Box 362, NARA; Jungmin Kang and H.A. Feivson, ‘South Korea’s Shifting and Controversial Interest in Spent Fuel Reprocessing’, The Nonproliferation Review 8/1 (Spring 2001), 72.

⁸⁷ Hersman and Peters, ‘Nuclear U-Turns’, 541–2; Tzeng, ‘Nuclear Leverage’, 477–9.

⁸⁸ The documents which chronicled these attempts were published in: ‘US Opposed Taiwanese Bomb during 1970s’, William Burr (ed.), N[ational] S[ecurity] A[rchive] E[lectronic] B[riefing] B[ook] 221 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb221/>.

⁸⁹ ‘Fonmin Reaffirms ROC Decision to Refrain From Acquiring Nuclear Reprocessing Plant’, 23 November 1973, Document 3B, NSAEBB 221 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb221/T-3b.pdf>.

⁹⁰ State Department cable 91733 to Embassy Taiwan, ‘ROC’s Nuclear Intentions’, 4 September 1976, Document 6A, NSA EBB 221 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb221/T-6a.pdf>.

⁹¹ ‘ROC’s Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with Premier Chiang Ching-kuo’, 15 September 1976, Secret Nodis, Document 7A, NSA EBB 221 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb221/T-7a.pdf>.

⁹² ‘ROC/IAEA Safeguards’, 8 March 1977, Document 12, NSA- EBB 221 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb221/T-12.pdf>.

⁹³ State Department to Embassy Taiwan, ‘Nuclear Representation to the ROC’, 26 March 1977, Secret, Document 13A, NSA EBB 221 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb221/T-13a.pdf>.

⁹⁴ Kissinger served as National Security Advisor under both Nixon and Ford from January 1969 to November 1975, and as Secretary of State from September 1973 to January 1977, filling both positions between September 1973 and November 1975 <https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/people/kissinger-henry-a>.

⁹⁵ Asaf Siniver, Nixon, Kissinger and the US Foreign Policy Making (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2008) 46–52.

⁹⁶ Ibid.

⁹⁷ Rabinowitz, Bargaining on Nuclear Tests, 87.

⁹⁸ US Embassy Taiwan to State Department, ‘US Nuclear Team Visit’, 30 December 1976, Document 10A, NSA EBB 221 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb221/T-10a.pdf>; State Department to Embassy Taiwan, ‘Taiwan’s Continued Interest in Reprocessing’, 8 January 1977, Document 10B, NSA EBB 221 <http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb221/T-10b.pdf>.

⁹⁹ Carlo Patti, ‘Brazil in Global Nuclear Order’, doctoral dissertation, University of Florence, 2012, 100–37; Spektor, Kissinger e o Brasil, Loc 1291–1314.

¹⁰⁰ Patti, ‘Brazil in Global Nuclear Order’, 129–33; Henry Kissinger to John Crimmins, ‘FRG-Brazil Nuclear Accord: Personal Message from the Secretary’, 20 June 1975, Document Number 1975STATE146237, A[ccess] [to] A[rchives] D[atabase].

¹⁰¹ Spektor, Kissinger e o Brasil, Loc 1617; Patti, ‘Brazil in Global Nuclear Order’, 145–6.

¹⁰² John Crimmins to Henry Kissinger, ‘Leading Newspaper Views Trilateral Safeguards Agreement as Political Victory’, 9 March 1976, 1976BRASIL02045, AAD.

¹⁰³ Patti, ‘Brazil in the Global Nuclear Order’, 146; Spektor, Kissinger e o Brasil, Loc 1621–40.

¹⁰⁴ Brent Scowcroft to Gerald Ford, 22 February 1976, National Security Adviser, Trip Briefing Books and Cables for Henry Kissinger, 1974–1976, Box 30, G[erald] [R.] F[ord] [Presidential] L[ibrary], [Ann Arbor, MI].

¹⁰⁵ Sy Rubin to Henry Kissinger, ‘Visit of American Private Citizen to Brasilia’, 29 December 1976, Document Number 1976STATE312984, AAD; Patti, ‘Brazil in Global Nuclear Order’, 147–201.

¹⁰⁶ Vipin Narang, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict (Princeton: Princeton UP 2014) 55–6.

¹⁰⁷ Feroz Khan, Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani Bomb (Stanford: Stanford UP 2012) 129–32; Husain Haqqani, Magnificent Delusions: Pakistan, the United States, and an Epic History of Misunderstanding (New York: PublicAffairs 2013) 210.

¹⁰⁸ Haqqani, Magnificent Delusions, 210–11.

¹⁰⁹ Henry Byroade to Henry Kissinger, 17 March 1976, Presidential Country Files for the Middle East and South Asia, Box 27, GFL.

¹¹⁰ George Vest to Carlyle Maw, ‘ACDA’s “Hold” on Conventional Arms Transfers to Pakistan (GOP)’, 13 May 1976, National Security Adviser Presidential Agency File, Box 1, GFL.

¹¹¹ Tzeng, ‘Nuclear Leverage’, 480.

¹¹² Barry Goldwater to Gerald Ford, 26 January 1976, Presidential Country Files for the Middle East and South Asia, Box 27, GFL.

¹¹³ Brent Scowcroft to Gerald Ford, ‘Letter from Senator Barry Goldwater Urging A-7 Sales to Pakistan’, 16 February 1976, Presidential Country Files for the Middle East and South Asia, Box 27, GFL.

¹¹⁴ ‘Letter from President Ford to Pakistani Prime Minister Bhutto’, 19 March 1976, Nixon-Ford Administrations, FRUS 1969–1976, Vol. E-8, Document 225.

¹¹⁵ Henry Byroade to Henry Kissinger, 7 April 1976, Presidential Country Files for the Middle East and South Asia, Box 27, GFL.

¹¹⁶ Dennis Kux, The United States and Pakistan, 1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies (Washington DC: Johns Hopkins University Press 2001) 223; ‘Memorandum of Conversation’, 17 December 1976, Kissinger Transcripts, Digital National Security Archive, KT02151; Tzeng, ‘Nuclear Leverage’, 478–9.

¹¹⁷ ‘Memorandum of Conversation’, 17 December 1976, Kissinger Transcripts, Digital National Security Archive, KT02152; Khan, Eating Grass, 137.

¹¹⁸ ‘Nuclear Energy and World Order: Address by Governor Jimmy Carter at the United Nations’, 13 May 1976, Domestic Council, Glen R. Schleede, Associate Director for Energy and Science Files: 1974–1977, Box 27, GFL; ‘Carter Promises/President’s Performance’, September 1976, Domestic Council, James M. Cannon, Box 24, GFL.

¹¹⁹ Robert Zarate, ‘The Non-Use and Abuse of Nuclear Proliferation Intelligence in the Cases of North Korea and Iran’, 8 April 2013, Nonproliferation Policy Information Center <http://nuclearpolicy101.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/The-Non-Use-and-Abuse-of-Proliferation-Intelligence.pdf>.

¹²⁰ Brent Scowcroft to Gerald Ford, ‘The Egypt and Israel Nuclear Agreements‘, undated, NSC Middle East and South Asian Affairs Staff: Files, 1974–1977, Box 4, GFL.

¹²¹ Gerald Ford, ‘Statement on Nuclear Policy’, 28 October 1976, APP <http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=6561>.

¹²² For the full text of the NPT see: <http://www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2005/npttreaty.html>.

¹²³ Gavin, ‘Strategies of Inhibition’, 34–5; Rabinowitz and Miller, ‘Keeping the Bombs in the Basement’, 47–86.

¹²⁴ Sargent, Superpower Transformed, 229–60.

¹²⁵ Hilfrich, ‘Roots of Animosity’, 277–301; Patti, ‘Brazil in Global Nuclear Order’, 156–231; Togzhan Kassenova, Brazil’s Nuclear Kaleidoscope: An Evolving Identity (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2014) 23–4.

Additional information

Funding

I would like to thank the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, which supported this research as part of a grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.

Notes on contributors

James Cameron

James Cameron is a Henry Chauncey Jr. ’57 Postdoctoral Fellow at International Security Studies, Yale University. Previously he was a nuclear security postdoctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University. His first book, The Secret Struggle: The Rise and Demise of America’s First Missile Defense System, 1961–1972, is under contract with Oxford University Press (USA). The author of publications on transatlantic and US–Soviet relations, his research focuses on the nexus between nuclear strategy and domestic politics. He holds an MA and PhD in History from the University of Cambridge and an MPhil in Russian and East European Studies from the University of Oxford.

Or Rabinowitz

Dr. Or (Ori) Rabinowitz, an Israeli Chevening scholar, is a lecturer at the International Relations Department of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Her book Bargaining on Nuclear Tests was published in April 2014 by Oxford University Press; a co-authored article with Nicholas L. Miller titled ‘Keeping the Bombs in the Basement’ was published in International Security, summer 2015 (Vol. 40, No. 1). Rabinowitz holds a PhD awarded by the War Studies Department of King’s College London, an MA in Security Studies and an LLB in Law, both from Tel-Aviv University. Before turning to academia she worked as a news desk editor in several Israeli media outlets.