Europe, Russia and the Ukraine crisis: the dynamics of coercion

ABSTRACT

This article analyses European strategy towards Russia during the Ukraine crisis between February 2014 and December 2015, conceptualising it as a coercive diplomatic strategy and analysing the relationship between its ends, ways and means. European strategy sought to reverse Russian intervention. However, this overarching aim was flanked by two ‘constraining’ aims of avoiding an escalation of the conflict and a breakdown of relations with Russia. The strategy shifted between these aims, which proved to be irreconcilable: while the EU partly succeeded in containing the conflict, it failed to reverse Russian intervention and relations between the EU and Russia deteriorated sharply.

KEYWORDS:

• EU foreign policy
• Ukraine crisis
• coercion
• diplomacy
• strategy

Acknowledgements

The author thanks Anand Menon (KCL), Jan Willem Honig (KCL) and Erik Jones (SAIS) for their comments and helpful advice. The usual caveat applies.

Disclosure statement

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of any of the institutions he is affiliated with.

Notes

¹ David Baldwin, ‘Success and Failure in Foreign Policy’ Annual Review of Political Science 3/1 (2000), 167–182.

² Paul Kennedy, ‘Grand Strategy in War and Peace: Towards a Broader Definition’ in P. Kennedy (ed.) Grand Strategies in War and Peace (New Haven: Yale University Press 1991), 1–7; See also Basil H. Liddell Hart, Strategy (New York: BN Publishing, 2008).

³ Carl von Clausewitz, On War (New York: Barnes & Noble 2004).

⁴ Lawrence Freedman, Strategic Coercion (Oxford: Oxford University Press 1998).Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press 2008).

⁵ Ibid., 10.

⁶ Ibid., 17.

⁷ Alexander L. George, ‘Introduction’ in A.L. George and W.E. Simons (eds.) The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Boulder: Westview 1994) 1-11, 10.

⁸ Freedman, Coercion, 29.

⁹ Freedman, Coercion; Schelling, Arms; Daniel Byman and Matthew Waxman, The Dynamics of Coercion (New York: Cambridge University Press 2002); Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Boulder: Westview 1994); Robert Pape, Bombing to Win (Ithaca NY: Cornell University Press 1996).

¹⁰ Byman and Waxman, Dynamics.

¹¹ Susan H. Allen, ‘The Determinants of Economic Sanctions Success and Failure’, International Interactions 31/2 (2005), 117–138; Jonathan Kirshner, ‘The Microfoundations of Economic Sanctions’, Security Studies 6/3 (1997), 32–64; Robert Pape, ‘Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work’, International Security 22/2 (1997), 90–136.

¹² Robert Jervis, Richard N. Lebow and Janice Stein, Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press 1985); Richard N. Lebow, ‘Thucydides and Deterrence’, Security Studies 16/2 (2007), 163–88.

¹³ Robert Pape, ‘Coercion and Military Strategy: Why Denial Works and Punishment Doesn’t’, Journal of Strategic Studies 15/4 (1992), 423–475; Schelling, Arms.

¹⁴ Robert Jervis, ‘Political Implications of Loss Aversion’, Political Psychology 13/2 (1992), 187–204; Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, ‘Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk’, Econometrica 47/2 (1979), 263–291; Jack S. Levy, ‘An Introduction to Prospect Theory’, Political Psychology 13/2(1992), 171–186.

¹⁵ Freedman, Coercion; Schelling, Arms; Richard Lebow, A Cultural Theory of International Relations (Cambridge: CUP 2008); Thucydides, The Peloponnesian War (Oxford: Oxford University Press 2009).

¹⁶ Fred Iklé, Every War Must End (New York: Columbia University Press 1979); Elizabeth Stanley, ‘Ending the Korean War: The Role of Domestic Coalition Shifts in Overcoming Obstacles to Peace’, International Security 34/1 (2009), 42–82.

¹⁷ EU Foreign Affairs Council [FAC], ‘Conclusions on Ukraine’, 14 Apr. 2014. Available at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/142223.pdf> [Accessed 13.8.2015]; G7, ‘Hague Declaration’, 24 Mar. 2014. Available at: <http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-14-82_en.htm> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

¹⁸ European External Action Service [EEAS], ‘Factsheet on EU–Ukraine relations’, 29 Apr. 2014. Available at: <http://eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2014/140429_04_en.pdf> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

¹⁹ Statement by NATO Foreign Ministers, 1 Apr. 2014. Available at: <http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_108501.htm> [Accessed 13.8.2015]; Andreas F. Rasmussen, ‘Statement following meeting of North Atlantic Council’, 16 Apr. 2014. Available at: <http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/opinions_109231.htm> [Accessed 14.8.2015].

²⁰ European Commission’s support to Ukraine’, 5 Mar. 2014. Available at: <http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-219_en.htm> [Accessed 13 August 2015].; ‘Regulation (EU) No 374/2014 Of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on the reduction or elimination of customs duties on goods originating in Ukraine’. Available at: <http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:32014R0374> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

²¹ FAC, ‘Conclusions on Ukraine’, 12 May 2014. Available at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/fac/2014/05/12/> [Accessed 13.8.2015]; FAC, ‘Conclusions on Ukraine’, 23 June 2014. Available at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/143341.pdf> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

²² European Commission, ‘Trade with Russia’. Available at: <http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/russia/> [Accessed 13.8.2015]; Eurostat, ‘Energy production and imports’ [data refers to 2013]. Available at: <http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Energy_production_and_imports> [Accessed 13 August 2015].

²³ C. Oliver, J. Fontanella-Khan, G. Parker and S. Wagstyl, ‘EU sanctions push on Russia falters amid big business lobbying’, Financial Times, 16 Aug. 2014. Available at: <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/352f4f5c-c57c-11e3-97e4-00144feabdc0.html?_ga=1.25603901.1466216353.1389103775&siteedition=intl#slide0> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

²⁴ Vladimir Putin, ‘Address to the State Duma’, 18 Mar. 2014. Available at: <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603> [Accessed 14.8.2015].

²⁵ FAC, ‘Conclusions on Ukraine’, 23 June 2014. Available at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/143341.pdf> [Accessed 13.8.2015]; European Council, ‘Special meeting of the European Council’, 16 July 2014. Available at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2014/07/16/> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

²⁶ EU 2014/512/CFSP, ‘Council Decision 2014/512/CFSP of 31 July 2014 concerning restrictive measures in view of Russia’s actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine’. Available at: <http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32014D0512&from=EN> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

²⁷ FAC, ‘EU restrictive measures in view of the situation in Eastern Ukraine and the illegal annexation of Crimea’, 29 July 2014. Available at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/foraff/144159.pdf> [Accessed 16.8.2015].

²⁸ European Commission, ‘Joint conclusions of the EU-Russian Federation-Ukraine ministerial meeting on the effects of implementation of the EU-Ukraine AA/DCFTA’, 11 July 2014. Available at: <http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-14-223_en.htm> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

²⁹ Minsk Protocol, Full text, 5 Sept. 2014. Available at: <http://mfa.gov.ua/en/news-feeds/foreign-offices-news/27596-protocolon-the-results-of-consultations-of-the-trilateral-contact-group-minsk-05092014> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

³⁰ FAC, ‘Conclusions on Ukraine’, 17 Nov. 2014. Available at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/fac/2014/11/17-18/> [Accessed 13.8.2015]; Federica Mogherini, ‘Remarks ahead of the Foreign Affairs Council’, 17 Nov. 2014. Available at: <http://www.eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/2014/141117_02_en.htm> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

³¹ François Hollande, ‘Conférence de presse lors du sommet de l’OTAN à Newport’, 5 Sept. 2014. Available at: <http://www.elysee.fr/conferences-de-presse/article/conference-de-presse-lors-du-sommet-de-l-otan-a-newport/> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

³² FAC, ‘Reinforced restrictive measures against Russia’, 11 Sept. 2014. Available at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/144868.pdf> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

³³ European Commission, ‘Breakthrough: 4,6 billion dollar deal secures gas for Ukraine and EU’, 30 Oct. 2014. Available at: <http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-1238_en.htm> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

³⁴ NATO, ‘Wales Summit Declaration’, 5 Sept. 2014. Available at: <http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

³⁵ NATO, ‘NATO stands with Ukraine, steps up practical support’, 2 December 2014. Available at: <http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_115477.htm?selectedLocale=en> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

³⁶ FAC, ‘Press Release’, 29 Sept. 2014. Available at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/144957.pdf> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

³⁷ FAC, ‘Conclusions on Ukraine’, 29 Jan. 2015. Available at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2015/01/council-conclusions-ukraine/> [Accessed 13.8. 2015].

³⁸ ‘Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements’ [Known as Minsk II], Full text, 12 Febr. 2015. Available at: <http://www.ibtimes.com/minsk-ceasefire-deal-full-text-agreement-between-russia-ukraine-germany-france-1814468> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

³⁹ European Council, ‘Conclusions’, 19 March 2015. Available at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2015/03/conclusions-russia-ukraine-european-council-march-2015/> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

⁴⁰ European Council, ‘Conclusions’, 19 March 2015.

⁴¹ Ibid.; G7, ‘Foreign Ministers’ Meeting Communiqué after meeting in Lubeck’, 15 Apr. 2015. Available at: <http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/EN/Infoservice/Presse/Meldungen/2015/150415_G7_Communique.html> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

⁴² Angela Merkel, ‘Speech on The Eastern Partnership’, 21 May 2015. Available at: <http://www.bundesregierung.de/Content/EN/Artikel/2015/05_en/2015-05-21-regierungserklaerung_en.html> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

⁴³ Minsk II.

⁴⁴ Vladimir Putin, ‘Interview with Corriere della Sera’, 6 June 2015. Available at: <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49629> [Accessed 14.8.2015].

⁴⁵ Petro Poroshenko, ‘Statement on the Minsk Agreement’, 12 Febr. 2015. Available at: <http://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/dosyagnuto-domovlenist-pro-pripinennya-vognyu-zvilnennya-vsi-34692> [Accessed 14.8.2015].Petro Poroshenko, ‘Statement on establishment of a Constitutional Commission’, 3 Mar. 2015. Available at: <http://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/prezident-stvoriv-konstitucijnu-komisiyu-rozpochinayetsya-no-34857> [Accessed 14.8.2015].

⁴⁶ BBC News, Ukraine ceasefire talks ‘make significant progress’, 13 Sept. 2015, <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34236464> [Accessed 14.3.2016].

⁴⁷ Jean Claude Juncker, ‘Speech in Passau’, 8 Oct. 2015, Available at: <http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-15-5824_en.htm> [Accessed 14.3.2016]; France 24, ‘Nicolas Sarkozy à Moscou: “Le monde a besoin de la Russie”’, 29 Oct. 2015, Available at: <http://www.france24.com/fr/20151029-sarkozy-poutine-rencontre-moscou-syrie-ukraine-diplomatie-critiques-france> [Accessed 14.3.2016].

⁴⁸ James Kanter, ‘Italy Delays E.U.’s Renewal of Sanctions Against Russia’, New York Times, 14 Dec. 2015. Available at: <http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/15/world/europe/italy-delays-eus-renewal-of-sanctions-against-russia.html?_r=1> [Accessed 17.3.2016].

⁴⁹ Reuters, ‘Ukraine guardsman killed in nationalist protest outside parliament’, 1 Sept. 2015, Available at: <http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-status-idUKKCN0R017G20150901> [Accessed 17.3.2016].

⁵⁰ Matthew Bodner, ‘Brawl erupts in Ukrainian parliament’, The Telegraph, 11 Dec. 2015. Available at: <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/12045941/Brawl-erupts-in-Ukrainian-parliament-as-MP-attempts-to-carry-out-prime-minister.html> [Accessed 17.3.2016].

⁵¹ Remarks by Vice President Biden to The Ukrainian Rada, 9 Dec. 2015. Available at: <https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/12/09/remarks-vice-president-joe-biden-ukrainian-rada> [Accessed 29.3.2016].

⁵² French Presidency Statement, ‘Entretien Format Normandie’, 30 Dec. 2015, <http://www.elysee.fr/communiques-de-presse/article/entretien-format-normandie-2/> [Accessed 22.3.2016].

⁵³ Andrei Tsygankov, ‘Vladimir Putin’s Last Stand: The Sources of Russia’s Ukraine Policy’, Post-Soviet Affairs 31/4 (2015), 279–303.

⁵⁴ Vladimir Putin, ‘Address to the State Duma’, 18 Mar. 2014. Available at: <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603> [Accessed 14.8.2015].

⁵⁵ Thucydides, Peloponnesian War.

⁵⁶ John J. Mearsheimer, ‘Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault’, Foreign Affairs 93/5 (2014), 77–89; Tsygankov, Vladimir Putin’s last stand; Nicholas Redman, ‘Russia’s Breaking Point’, Survival 56/2 (2014), 235–244.

⁵⁷ Sergei Lavrov, ‘It’s not Russia that’s destabilising Ukraine’, The Guardian, 7 Apr. 2014. Available at: <http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/07/sergei-lavrov-russia-stabilise-ukraine-west> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

⁵⁸ Vladimir Putin, ‘Address to the State Duma’, 18 Mar. 2014; Vladimir Putin, ‘Address to the final plenary meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club’s XI session’, 24 Oct. 2014; Vladimir Putin, ‘End of Year News conference’, 18 Dec. 2014. Available at: <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47250> [Accessed 14.8.2015].

⁵⁹ Vladimir Putin, ‘Speech Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy’, 10 Febr. 2007. Available at: <http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2007/02/10/0138_type82912type82914type82917type84779_118123.shtml> [Accessed 14.8.2015]; Vladimir Putin, ‘Address to the final plenary meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club’s XI session’, 24 Oct. 2014. Available at: <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860> [Accessed 14.8.2015]; Vladimir Putin, ‘Address to the 70th session of the UN General Assembly’, 28 Sept. 2015. Available at: <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385> [Accessed 14.3.2016].

⁶⁰ Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro, ‘Consequences of a New Cold War’, Survival 57/2 (2015), 37–46; Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer, Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order (Cambridge: MIT Press 2015), 87–96; Richard Sakwa, Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands (London: IB Tauris 2014), 168.

⁶¹ Stanley, ‘Ending the Korean War’.

⁶² Fiona Hill, ‘What Putin Really Wants’, The National Interest, 24 Febr. 2015. Available at: <http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/02/24-what-putin-really-wants-hill> [Accessed 13.8.2015]; Dimitri Trenin, ‘Russia’s Breakout from the post Cold War system: The Drivers of Putin’s Course’, Carnegie Moscow Centre, Dec. 2014. Available at: <http://carnegie.ru/2014/12/22/russia-s-breakout-from-post-cold-war-system-drivers-of-putin-s-course> [Accessed 18.8.2015].

⁶³ Financial Times, ‘Flash FT’, 25 Jan. 2016. Available at: <http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/01/25/russian-gdp-contracted-3-7-in-2015/> [Accessed 22.3.2016].

⁶⁴ Refers to all sanctions. International Monetary Fund, ‘Russian Federation 2015 Article IV Consultation, Press Release and Staff Report’, Aug. 2015. Available at: <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15211.pdf> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

⁶⁵ Jack Farchy, ‘EU’s Russia sanctions fail to dent oil deals’, Financial Times, 14 Jun. 2014. Available at <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/21d66e58-10ef-11e5-8413-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3hvxENAE4> [Accessed 18.8.2015]; Kathrin Hille, Jack Farchy and Courtney Weaver, ‘Sanctions new normal proves workable for business in Russia’, Financial Times, 14 Jun. 2015. Available at: <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/98cc653a-110d-11e5-8413-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3hvxENAE4> [Accessed 13.8.2015].

⁶⁶ Reuters, ‘As Putin looks east, China and Russia sign $400-billion gas deal’, 21 May 2014. Available at: <http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/21/us-china-russia-gas-idUSBREA4K07K20140521> [Accessed 14.8.2015].

⁶⁷ Putin, ‘Address to the Federal Assembly’, 4 Dec. 2014. Available at: <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47173> [Accessed 18.8.2015].

⁶⁸ International Monetary Fund (IMF), ‘Russian Federation: Concluding Statement of the 2015 Article IV Mission’, 21 May 2015. Available at: <https://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2015/052115.htm> [Accessed 13.8.2015]; World Bank, ‘Country Overview: Russia’, Available at: <http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/russia/overview> [Accessed 16.3.2016].

⁶⁹ IMF, ‘World Economic Outlook Update’, Jan. 2016. Available at: <https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/01/> [Accessed 25.3.2016]; World Bank, ‘Press Release’, 18 Dec. 2015. Available at: <http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/12/18/world-bank-keeps-2015-growth-projections-for-russia-and-slightly-revises-2016-2017-outlook> [Accessed 26.3.2016].

⁷⁰ Trenin, ‘Russia’s Breakout from the post Cold War system’.

⁷¹ Pew Research Centre, ‘Russian Public Opinion: Putin Praised, West Panned’, 10 Jun. 2015. Available at: <http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/10/2-russian-public-opinion-putin-praised-west-panned/> [Accessed 14.8.2015].

⁷² Menon and Rumer, Conflict in Ukraine, 90–103.

⁷³ World Bank, ‘Global Economic Prospects 2016’, Jan. 2016. Available at: <http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects> [Accessed 25.3.2016].

⁷⁴ Vladimir Putin, ‘Speech at Seliger 2014 Annual Youth Forum’, 29 Aug. 2014. Available at <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46507> [Accessed 16.8.2015]; Jens Stoltenberg, ‘Press conference ahead of NATO Defence Ministers meetings’, 22 Jun. 2015. Available at <http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_120869.htm> [Accessed 22.8.2015].

Additional information

Funding

The author did not receive any funding for this research. The author does not have any financial interest or benefit arising from the direct applications of his research.

Notes on contributors

Luigi Scazzieri

Luigi Scazzieri is a PhD candidate at King’s College London. He is also O’Donnell Fellow at the Centre for European Reform and Researcher with the UK in a Changing Europe Initiative. His research interests are European foreign and security policy, European governance, and transatlantic relations. He holds degrees from the University of Cambridge, the London School of Economics and Political Science, and King’s College London.