Beyond balancing? Intrastate conflict and US grand strategy

ABSTRACT

Grand strategic theorists share an historical emphasis on interstate conflict, yet in contrast to the more frequent intrastate conflicts, these represent only 7 of the some 273 US military deployments since 1900. We argue that these intrastate conflicts limit the utility of regional balances of power in mitigating forms of conflict that the US may consider inimical to its national security interests. When considering potential changes to US force posture and grand strategy, American coercive statecraft should be theorised along a broader strategic continuum encompassing the full range of conflict.

KEYWORDS:

• Grand strategy​​
• US foreign policy
• intrastate war
• interstate war

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.​​

Notes

¹ Barry Posen is one of the few retrenchers that briefly mentions intrastate conflict but even here it is only with respect to large, boots-on-the-ground interventions. See his Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy (Ithaca: Cornell University Press 2014) 51–60. On major wars and their ending, see G. John Ikenberry, After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, And The Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars (New Jersey: Princeton University Press 2000).

² Stephen Brooks & William Wohlforth, America Abroad. The United States’ Global Role In The 21st Century (Oxford: Oxford University Press 2016), 81.

³ Barbara Salazar Terreon, ‘Instances of Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1978–2015 Congressional Research Service, 15 Oct. 2015. http://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R42738.pdf; author’s own research.

⁴ On US interventions and intrastate warfare during the Cold War, see Michael McClintock, Instruments of Statecraft: US Guerrilla Warfare, Counterinsurgency, and Counter-terrorism, 1940–1990 (New York: Pantheon Books 1992). See also Edward Newman, Understanding Civil Wars: Continuity and change in intrastate conflict (London: Routledge 2014).

⁵ Brooks et al. ‘Don’t Come Home’, 42.

⁶ Christopher Preble and William Ruger, ‘No More of the Same: The Problem with Primacy’ War on the Rocks 31 Aug. 2016. http://warontherocks.com/2016/08/no-more-of-the-same-the-problem-with-primacy/

⁷ The Uppsala Conflict Data Program estimates that approximately one million battle deaths may be attributable to intrastate conflict since 1989. See, ‘UCDP Battle-Related Deaths Dataset’ UCDP, Uppsala University, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_battle-related_deaths_dataset/

⁸ US Army, Stability Operations, FM 3–07, Oct. 2008, http://usacac.army.mil/cac2/Repository/FM307/FM3-07.pdf, 1–1.

⁹ Christopher Layne, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present (Ithaca: Cornell University Press 2006); Bastiaan Van Apeldoorn and Nana de Graaff, American Grand Strategy and Corporate Elite Networks: The Open Door since the End of the Cold War (Oxford: Routledge 2015).

¹⁰ Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (London: Simon & Schuster 1994), 717.

¹¹ Brooks et al. ‘Don’t Come Home, America’, 42–44.

¹² Barry Posen, Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy (Ithaca: Cornell University Press 2014) Chapter 1.

¹³ Campbell Craig et al. ‘Debating American Engagement: The Future of U.S. Grand Strategy’ International Security 38/2 (2013) 199.

¹⁴ Walter Lippmann, U.S. Foreign Policy: Shield of the Republic (London: Hamish Hamilton 1943).

¹⁵ For example, Stephen Walt, Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy (New York: W.W. Norton & Company 2005); Christopher Layne, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present (Ithaca: Cornell University Press 2006).

¹⁶ Posen, Restraint, 158.

¹⁷ Brooks & Wohlforth, America Abroad, 81.

¹⁸ U.S. Department of State, ‘International Military Education and Training Account Summary’ 2016 http://www.state.gov/t/pm/ppa/sat/c14562.htm.

¹⁹ US Army, Stability Operations, FM 3–07, Oct. 2008 http://usacac.army.mil/cac2/Repository/FM307/FM3-07.pdf, V.I.

²⁰ For data of arms and training see the US Department of State, Foreign Assistance Budget Releases website http://www.state.gov/f/releases/iab/index.htm.

²¹ The White House, ‘National Security Strategy ’ Feb.201510, https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy.pdf.

²² Doug Bolton, ‘American special operations forces have been deployed to 135 countries this year alone’ The Independent, Sept. 24, 2015; Nick Turse, ‘U.S. Special Ops Forces Deployed in 135 Nations’ Tom Dispatch, 24 Sept. 2015.

²³ Department of the Army, ‘Field Manual No. 3–07 Stability’ 2 Jun. 2014. 4–6, http://armypubs.army.mil/doctrine/DR_pubs/dr_a/pdf/fm3_07.pdf.

²⁴ Department of the Army, ‘Field Manual No. 3–07 Stability’, 3–2.

²⁵ Robert Gates, ‘Remarks delivered at the Association of the United States Army’, 10 Oct. 2007. http://www.defenselink.mil/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1181.

²⁶ U.S. Department of State, Directorate of Defense Trade Controls. ‘2013 Section 655 Report’ Section 655 Annual Military Assistance Reports. https://www.pmddtc.state.gov/reports/documents/rpt655_FY13.pdf.

²⁷ Stephen Brooks et al. ‘Don’t Come Home, America: The Case Against Retrenchment’ International Security 37/3 (2012/13) 42–45.

²⁸ Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica, ‘¡Basta Ya! Colombia: Memorias De Guerra Y Dignidad’, Jul. 2013 32. http://www.centrodememoriahistorica.gov.co/descargas/informes2013/bastaYa/bastaya-colombia-memorias-de-guerra-y-dignidad-2015.pdf.

²⁹ Peter Pace, Advance Questions for Lieutenant General Peter Pace. Defense Reforms. United States Senate Committee on Armed Services. 2000. http://www.senate.gov/~armed_services/statemnt/2000/000906pp.pdf.

³⁰ General Douglas M. Fraser, Posture Statement of General Douglas M. Fraser before the United States Southern Command, Senate Armed Services Committee. 11 March 2010. http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2010/03percent20March/Fraserpercent2003-11-10.pdf.

³¹ Also known as the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA). See: ‘Central American Trade Deal Done’, BBC News, 28 May 2004 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3759371.stm.

³² European Commission, ‘Trade, Countries and regions – Mercosur’ Aug., 2014. http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/regions/mercosur/.

³³ The White House, ‘Strategy to Combat Transnational Organized Crime: Addressing Converging Threats to National Security’ Jul. 2011 5.https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/Strategy_to_Combat_Transnational_Organized_Crime_July_2011.pdf.

³⁴ Clare Seelke and Kristin Finklea, ‘U.S.-Mexican Security Cooperation: The Merida Initiative and Beyond’ Congressional Research Service, 18 Jan. 2017 https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41349.pdf.

³⁵ Clare Ribando Seelje and Kristin Finklea, ‘U.S.-Mexican Security Cooperation: The Merida Initiative and Beyond’ Congressional Research Service, 7 May 2015.

³⁶ On this see, Angeles Villarreal, ‘U.S.-Mexico Economic Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications’ Congressional Research Service, 20 Apr. 2015.

³⁷ United States Trade Representative, ‘Colombian Action Plan Related to Labour Rights’, 7 Apr. 2011. https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/agreements/morocco/pdfs/Colombian%20Action%20Plan%20Related%20to%20Labor%20Rights.pdf.

³⁸ American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations, ‘The Colombian Action Plan Related to Labor Rights: The View Through Workers’ Eyes’ Jul. 2012, p. 1. http://www.aflcio.org/content/download/38251/594971/report±version±2±no±bug.pdf.

³⁹ M. Angeles Villarreal, ‘The U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement: Background and Issues’ Congressional Research Service, 14 Feb. 2014, p. 18. https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34470.pdf.

⁴⁰ US Department of State, ‘Congressional Budget Justification: Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs – FY2017 Budget and Appropriations’ 5 Oct. 2016, P. 6. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R44391.pdf.

⁴¹ Susan Epstein and Alan Kronstadt, ‘Pakistan: U.S. Foreign Assistance’ Congressional Research Service, 1 Jul. 2013.

⁴² ‘Direct Overt U.S. Aid Appropriations for and Military Reimbursements to Pakistan, FY2002-FY2016’ Congressional Research Service, 10 Feb. 2015.

⁴³ Dafna Rand and Stephen Tankel, ‘Security Cooperation and Assistance: Rethinking the Return on Investment’ Center for a New American Security, Aug. 2015, p. 10.

⁴⁴ Susan Epstein and Alan Kronstadt, ‘Pakistan: U.S. Foreign Assistance’ Congressional Research Service, 1 Jul. 2013.

⁴⁵ Rand and Tankel, ‘Security Cooperation and Assistance’, 18.

⁴⁶ Security Assistance Monitor, Military Aid Database, Center for International Policy. http://securityassistance.org/data.

⁴⁷ Doug Stokes, ‘Blood for oil? Global capital, counter-insurgency and the dual logic of American energy security’ Review of International Studies 33/2 (2007) 245–64.

⁴⁸ International Energy Agency, ‘ Oil Market Report Highlights – December 2015’ 11 Dec. 2015. https://www.iea.org/media/omrreports/fullissues/2015-12-11.pdf; U.S. Energy Information Administration, ‘Country Analysis Brief: Iraq’ 30 Jan. 2015, http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Iraq/iraq.pdf.

⁴⁹ International Energy Agency, ‘IEA releases Oil Market Report for October’ 11 Oct. 2016. https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/iea-releases-oil-market-report-for-october.html.

⁵⁰ ‘Dec.29: Iraqi Security Forces seize Ramadi Government Center’ United States Central Command, 29 Dec. 2015, http://www.centcom.mil/en/news/articles/dec.-29-iraqi-security-forces-seize-ramadi-government-center.

⁵¹ Department of Defense, ‘Special DOD briefing with Gen. Ward and Admiral Ulrich from the Pentagon, Arlington, VA’, 15 Oct. 2007, http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4059.

⁵² U.S. Department of State, ‘Congressional Budget Justification – Foreign Assistance. Summary Tables, FY2016’ p. 7. http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/238223.pdf.

⁵³ Security Assistance Monitor, Military Aid Database, Center for International Policy.http://securityassistance.org/data.

⁵⁴ See, for instance U.S. Department of State, ‘Joint Report to Congress – Foreign Military Training FY2013-14, Volume 1’ http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/230192.pdf; U.S. Department of State, ‘Joint Report to Congress – Foreign Military Training FY2011-12, Volume 1’ http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/197595.pdf.

⁵⁵ U.S. Energy Information Administration, ‘Country Analysis Brief – Nigeria’, 27 Feb. 2015 http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Nigeria/nigeria.pdf

⁵⁶ For a primer see, Stephanie Hanson, ‘MEND: The Niger Delta’s Umbrella Militant Group’ Council on Foreign Relations, 22 Mar. 2007 http://www.cfr.org/nigeria/mend-niger-deltas-umbrella-militant-group/p12920.

⁵⁷ UN Office on Drugs and Crime, ‘Transnational Organized Crime in West Africa: A Threat Assessment’, Feb. 2013 https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/tocta/West_Africa_TOCTA_2013_EN.pdf.

⁵⁸ U.S. Department of State, ‘Joint Report to Congress – Foreign Military Training FY2013-14, Volume 1’ 38–39 http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/230192.pdf.

⁵⁹ U.S. Energy Information Administration, ‘Country Analysis Brief – Nigeria’, 27 Feb. 2015.

⁶⁰ Javier Blas, ‘Victim of shale revolution, Nigeria stops exporting to US’ Financial Times, 2 Oct. 2014 http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/10/02/victim-of-shale-revolution-nigeria-stops-exporting-oil-to-us/

⁶¹ U.S. Energy Information Administration, ‘Country Analysis Brief – Nigeria’, 27 Feb. 2015.

⁶² Doug Stokes and Sam Raphael, Global Energy Security and American Hegemony (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press 2010).

⁶³ U.S. Department of State, ‘Congressional Budget Justification, Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs FY2016’2 2 Feb. 2015 175 http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/236395.pdf; U.S. Department of Defense, ‘Counterterrorism Partnerships Fund, Department of Defense Budget FY2016’, Mar. 2015 http://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2016/FY2016_CTPF_J-Book.pdf.

⁶⁴ See our Security Leverage, Structural Power and US Strategy In East Asia, International Affairs, Forthcoming September 2017 for the role that US military power has played in the East Asian regional political economy.

⁶⁵ Layne, The Peace of Illusions, 177.

⁶⁶ Layne, The Peace of Illusions, 178.

⁶⁷ Layne, The Peace of Illusions, 177.

⁶⁸ The White House, ‘National Security Strategy’ Feb. 2015 https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy.pdf.

⁶⁹ The core logic of a specific grand strategy can be married with a number (if not mixture) of different peripheral strategic logics, all of which may have corresponding implications for force posture and procurement patterns. See for example Derek Reveron, Exporting Security: International Engagement, Security Cooperation, and the Changing Face of the U.S. Military (Washington: Georgetown University Press 2010).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Doug Stokes

Doug Stokes is a Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, Professor of International Relations at the University of Exeter, and Director of the Centre for Advanced International Studies.

Kit Waterman

Kit Waterman is a Senior Researcher at the Centre for Advanced International Studies, University of Exeter.