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ABSTRACT
Most accounts of NATO enlargement depict it as the implementation of US grand strategy. This article aims to restore agency to the acceding states, specifically the Baltic states who joined the Alliance in 2004. It analyzes the dynamics of competition and cooperation among Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the late 1990s and early 2000s during the process of NATO accession. The article demonstrates that both rivalry and joint efforts among the Baltic states in their reforms and lobbying were crucial factors in shaping the outcome. Unlike their inclusion into the EU, NATO membership for the Baltic states seemed improbable, and thus the paper highlights the demand-driven aspect of NATO expansion.
KEYWORDS:
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This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.
Notes
1 Many details have been provided in the memoirs of US policymakers, starting with Ronald D. Asmus, Opening NATO’s Door: How the Alliance Remade itself for a New Era (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002) to Daniel S. Hamilton and Kristina Spohr (eds.), Open Door: NATO and Euro-Atlantic Security After the Cold War (Washington, DC: Johns Hopkins University SAIS, 2019). For the most recent research, see M. E. Sarotte, ‘How to Enlarge NATO: The Debate inside the Clinton Administration, 1993–95’, International Security, 44/1 (2019), 7–41.
2 Ainius Lašas, European Union and NATO Expansion: Central and Eastern Europe (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010); Maria Mälksoo,‘Enabling NATO enlargement: changing constructions of the Baltic states’, Trames, 8/3 (2004), 284–98; Kęstutis Paulauskas, ‘The Baltic Quest to the West: From Total Defence to “Smart Defence” (and Back?)’, in Tony Lawrence and Tomas Jermalavičius (eds.), Apprenticeship, Partnership, Membership: Twenty Years of Defence Development in the Baltic States (Tallinn: International Centre for Defence Studies, 2013), 45–84.
3 Kai-Helin Kaldas, ‘The Evolution of Estonian Security Options During the 1990s’, Athena Papers, no. 4 (October 2005), 20.
4 Strobe Talbott, The Russia Hand: Memoirs of Presidential Diplomacy (New York: Random House, 2002), ch. 5.
5 Sarotte, ‘How to Enlarge NATO’, 13–21.
6 See for example, Sean Kay, NATO and the Future of European Security (Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998); Gerald B. Solomon, The NATO Enlargement Debate, 1990–1997: Blessings of Liberty (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998).
7 Sarotte, ‘How to Enlarge NATO’, 26.
8 Ronald D. Asmus and Robert C. Nurick, ‘NATO Enlargement and the Baltic States’, Survival, 38/2 (1996), 121–42.
9 Robert Nurick, interview with author, 29 March 2020.
10 Stobe Talbott, ‘Bill, Boris and NATO’, in Daniel S. Hamilton and Kristina Spohr (eds.), Open Door: NATO and Euro-Atlantic Security After the Cold War (Washington, DC: Johns Hopkins University SAIS, 2019), 417–21.
11 Asmus, Opening NATO’s Door, 243–8.
12 Paulauskas, ‘The Baltic Quest to the West’, 54.
13 Daniel S. Hamilton, ‘New Members, New Missions: NATO and Euro-Atlantic Architecture in the Second Clinton Administration’, in Daniel S. Hamilton and Kristina Spohr (eds.), Open Door: NATO and Euro-Atlantic Security After the Cold War (Washington, DC: Foreign Policy Institute/Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, Johns Hopkins University SAIS, Citation2019), 343
14 Lauri Lepik, interview with author, 29 March 2020. Lepik was Deputy Chief of Mission in the Estonian Embassy in the US, 1996–2000.
15 Asmus, Opening NATO’s Door, 235–6.
16 Lauri Lindström, ‘MAP ja ANP’, in Lauri Lindström and Henrik Praks (eds.), Eesti NATO lugu 1991–2004 (Tallinn: Eesti NATO Ühing, 2014), 149–52.
17 Claes Levinsson, ‘The Long Shadow of History: Post-Soviet Border Disputes – The Case of Estonia, Latvia, and Russia’, Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 5/2 (2006), 106.
18 For a recent comprehensive discussion, see Jennie L. Schulze, Strategic Frames: Europe, Russia and minority inclusion in Estonia and Latvia (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2018).
19 Licia Cianetti, The Quality of Divided Democracies: Minority Inclusion, Exclusion, and Representation in the New Europe (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2019), 85–94.
20 Gerd Föhrenbach, ‘Germany’s Policy towards the Baltic States’, in Helmut Hubel (ed.), EU Enlargement and Beyond: The Baltic States and Russia. Nordeuropäische Studien 18 (Berlin: Berlin Verlag, 2002), 217.
21 Andres Kasekamp and Viljar Veebel, ‘The Baltic States and ESDP’, in Klaus Brummer (ed.), The North and ESDP (Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2007), 9–21.
22 Siim Kallas ‘Üksindusest välja’, in Lauri Lindström and Henrik Praks (eds.), Eesti NATO lugu 1991–2004 (Tallinn: Eesti NATO Ühing, 2014), 201.
23 Sintija Oškalne, ‘Supreme Command and Control of the Armed Forces: The Role of Presidents, Parliaments, Governments, Ministries of Defence and Chiefs of Staff’, in Tony Lawrence and Tomas Jermalavičius (eds.), Apprenticeship, Partnership, Membership: Twenty Years of Defence Development in the Baltic States (Tallinn: International Centre for Defence Studies, 2013), 122–67.
24 Lindström, ‘MAP ja ANP’, 149–52.
25 Paul Poast and Johannes Urpelainen, Organizing Democracy: How International Organizations Assist New Democracies (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 2018), 143.
26 Kristīne Rudzīte-Stejskala, ‘Financing Defence’, in Tony Lawrence and Tomas Jermalavičius (eds.), Apprenticeship, Partnership, Membership: Twenty Years of Defence Development in the Baltic States (Tallinn: International Centre for Defence Studies, 2013), 170–2.
27 Lašas, European Union and NATO Expansion, 11–14.
28 Holger Mölder, ‘The Development of Military Cultures’, in Tony Lawrence and Tomas Jermalavičius (eds.), Apprenticeship, Partnership, Membership: Twenty Years of Defence Development in the Baltic States (Tallinn: International Centre for Defence Studies, 2013), 106.
29 Toomas Hendrik Ilves, ‘Kuidas vältida topelt ei-d?’, in Eeva Eek-Pajuste (ed.), Teine tulemine: Taasiseseivunud Eesti välisesindused (Tallinn: Välisministeerium, 2003), 13–15.
30 Margus Kolga, ‘Rahupartnerlusprogrammist liikmesuse tegevuskavani’, in Lauri Lindström and Henrik Praks (eds.), Eesti NATO lugu 1991–2004 (Tallinn: Eesti NATO Ühing, 2014), 84.
31 Lindström, ‘MAP ja ANP’, 149–52.
32 Lepik, interview.
33 Ibid.
34 Toomas Hendrik Ilves, ‘A sustained foreign policy is a sign of maturity’, in 2001 Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Yearbook (Tallinn: Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2002), 5.
35 This logic is spelt out in Philip Gordon and James Steinberg, ‘NATO Enlargement: Moving Forward’, The Brookings Institution Policy Brief, no. 90 (December 2001).
36 Cianetti, The Quality of Divided Democracies, 85–94.
37 Asmus, Opening NATO’s Door, 229.
38 Peter Ito, ‘Baltic Military Cooperative Projects: A Record of Success’, in Tony Lawrence and Tomas Jermalavičius (eds.), Apprenticeship, Partnership, Membership: Twenty Years of Defence Development in the Baltic States (Tallinn: International Centre for Defence Studies, 2013), 246–81.
39 Karl Altau, interview with author, 31 January 2020. Altau is the Managing Director of the Joint Baltic American National Committe.
40 Renatas Norkus, ‘Ratification of the NATO Treaty in the U.S. Senate: Lessons Learned’, Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review, 1–2 (2003): 40.
41 Andres Kasekamp, ‘The north east’, in Hans Mouritzen and Anders Wivel (eds.), The geopolitics of Euro-Atlantic integration (London: Routledge, 2005), 158.
42 Nurick, interview.
43 Mälksoo,‘Enabling NATO enlargement’, 286.
44 Testimony of Nicholas J. Burns, NATO Enlargement: Qualifications and Contributions – Parts I–IV. Hearings before the Committee on Foreign Relations United States Senate One Hundred Eighth Congress First Session March 27, and April 1, 3 and 8, 2003, 52.
45 Atis Lejiņš, ‘The Quest for Baltic Unity: Chimera or Reality?’, in Atis Lejiņš and Žaneta Ozoliņa (eds.), Small States in a Turbulent Environment: The Baltic Perspective (Riga: Latvian Institute of International Affairs, 1997), 172.
46 Henrik Praks, inteview with author, 29 May 2020. Praks was Director of the Baltic Cooperation Bureau, 1997–9 and Director of the NATO and International Organisations Department, 2000–3, Estonian Ministry of Defence.
47 Ito, ‘Baltic Military Cooperative Projects’, 265.
48 Atis Lejiņš, ‘Will the Next Round of NATO Enlargement split the Baltics?’, Security Dialogue, 32/1 (2001), 126–7.
49 The Baltic Assembly, The Baltic Assembly: yesterday, today, tomorrow (Tallinn: Baltic Assembly, 2011), 33.
50 Toomas Hendrik Ilves, ‘Estonia as a Nordic Country’, Speech by the Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs to the Swedish Institute for International Affairs, Stockholm, 14 December 1999, available at https://vm.ee/en/news/estonia-nordic-country
51 Mindaugas Jurkynas, ‘Brotherhood reconsidered: Region-building in the Baltics’, Journal of Baltic Studies, 35/1 (2004), 20.
52 Henrik Praks, ‘Balti kaitsekoostööprojektid kui NATOga liitumise proovikivi ja ettevalmistus’, in Lauri Lindström and Henrik Praks (eds.), Eesti NATO lugu 1991–2004 (Tallinn: Eesti NATO Ühing, 2014), 124.
53 Kęstutis Paulauskas, ‘The Baltics: from nation states to member states’, EU-ISS Occasional Paper no. 62 (Paris: EU-ISS, 2006), 25.
54 Zbigniew Brzezinski, ‘NATO: The Dilemmas of Enlargement’, The National Interest (Fall 1998), 13–17.
55 Sven Jürgenson, inteview with author, 25 March 2020. Jürgenson was Estonian Ambassador to Washington, 2000–2003.
56 Lejiņš, ‘The Quest for Baltic Unity’, 176.
57 Hamilton, ‘New Members, New Missions’, 345.
58 Margus Kolga, ‘Quo vadis Baltic defence cooperation?’, in Andres Kasekamp (ed.), The Estonian Foreign Policy Foreign Yearbook 2006 (Tallinn: Estonian Policy Institute, 2006), 128.
59 Margus Kolga, interview with author, 23 March 2020. Kolga was Deputy State Secretary for Security Policy at the Estonian Ministry of Defence, 1994–2003.
60 Margus Kolga, ‘Quo vadis Baltic defence cooperation?’, 130.
61 Jürgenson, inteview.
62 Vygaudas Ušackas, interview with author, 31 March 2020. Ušackas was Lithuanian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, 1999–2001 and Lithuanian Ambassador to the US, 2001–5.
63 The group became known as the Vilnius 10 (V10) when Croatia joined the following year.
64 Ušackas, interview.
65 Ibid.
66 Ojārs Kalniņš, interview with author, 18 March 2020. Kalniņš was Latvian Ambassador to the US, 1993–2000; Jürgenson, inteview.
67 Ryan C. Hendrickson and Kristina Spohr Readman, ‘From the Baltic to the Black Sea: Bush’s NATO enlargement’, White House Studies, 4/3 (2004), 286.
68 Renatas Norkus, ‘Ratification of the NATO Treaty in the U.S. Senate: Lessons Learned’, Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review, 1–2 (2003), 44.
69 Daniel Fried, interview with author, 6 April 2020. Fried was Special Assistant to the US President and Senior Director for Europe and Eurasia, 2001–5.
70 George W. Bush, Remarks by the President in Address to Faculty and Students of Warsaw University, Warsaw, Poland, 15 June 2001. https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010615-1.html
71 Fried, interview.
72 Asle Toje, America, the EU and Strategic Culture. Renegotiating the transatlantic bargain (London: Routledge, 2008), 103.
73 Andrew A. Michta, ‘Central Europe and the Baltic Littoral in NATO’, Orbis, 48/3 (2004), 413.
74 Mel Huang, ‘NATO’s Baltic Enlargement Before and After 9/11: The Media’s View’, in Andres Kasekamp (ed.), The Estonian Foreign Policy Yearbook 2004 (Tallinn: Estonian Foreign Policy Institute, 2004), 99–114.
75 William H. Hill, No Place for Russia. European Security Institutions Since 1989 (New York: Columbia University Press, 2018), 198–9.
76 Ibid., 199.
77 Ibid., 200.
78 Mel Huang, ‘Climbing down from the summit: Estonia’s road towards NATO’, in Andres Kasekamp, (ed.), The Estonian Foreign Policy Yearbook 2003 (Tallinn: Estonian Foreign Policy Institute, 2003), 84.
79 Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania and United States Baltic Policy. Hearing before the Subcommittee on European Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations United States Senate, 15 July 1998, available at https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-105shrg50539/html/CHRG-105shrg50539.htm
80 Argo Ideon and Toomas Sildam, ‘Holokausti mäletamine tõused Eesti-USA suhteid mõjutama [Holocaust remembrance influences Estonia-USA relations]’, Postimees, 30 May 2002. available at https://www.postimees.ee/1942695/holokausti-maletamine-touseb-eesti-usa-suhteid-mojutama
81 Miil, Marek, Tingimuslikkus Eesti Vabariigi liitumisprotsessis Euro-Atlantiliste organisatsioonidega Holokaustist teavitamise juhtumi näitel, unpublished MA thesis, EuroCollege, University of Tartu, 2009, 58.
82 A monument to Estonians on the German side in WWII erected by a war veterans’ association and removed by the authorities, Kallas, ‘Üksindusest välja’, 202.
83 Hendrickson and Spohr Readman, ‘From the Baltic to the Black Sea’, 291.
84 Žaneta Ozoliņa, ‘The United States and Latvia: Standing Shoulder to Shoulder in International Organizations’, in Daunis Auers (ed.), Latvia and the USA: From Captive Nation to Strategic Partners (Riga: University of Latvia Press, 2008), 84–5.
85 Kasekamp, ‘The north east’, 159.
86 Toje, America, the EU and Strategic Culture, 124.
87 Kasekamp, ‘The north east’, 158.
88 Paulauskas, ‘The Baltics: from nation states to member states’, 31.
89 Hendrickson and Spohr Readman, ‘From the Baltic to the Black Sea’, 292.
90 Ušackas, interview.
91 Joseph Biden, NATO Enlargement: Qualifications and Contributions – Parts I–IV. Hearings before the Committee on Foreign Relations United States Senate One Hundred Eighth Congress First Session March 27, and April 1, 3 and 8, 2003, 28.
92 Norkus, ‘Ratification of the NATO Treaty’, 50.
93 ‘Senate ratifies NATO treaty’, CNN, 8 May 2003, available at https://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/05/08/senate.nato/
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Andres Kasekamp
Andres Kasekamp is Professor of History and Chair of Estonian Studies at the University of Toronto. Previously, he was Professor of Baltic Politics at the University of Tartu and Director of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute. His most recent book is A History of the Baltic States (Palgrave Macmillan, 2018, 2nd ed.).