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ABSTRACT
Andrew W. Marshall founded the discipline and the office of net assessment. As Director, Net Assessment, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 1973 to 2015, he developed new analytic perspectives and techniques for analyzing long-term strategic competition and understanding potential shifts in the future security environment. From 1993 to 1999, Marshall gave a series of interviews discussing net assessment – the office and the process. This article highlights three themes from those interviews – Marshall’s basic beliefs about human endeavors, his view on the nature of competition between nations, and his strategy for exerting influence in the U.S. government.
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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Among the most notable works are Thomas G. Mahnken, ed., Net Assessment and Military Strategy: Retrospective and Prospective Essays (NY: Cambria Press, 2020); Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky, ‘The Art of Net Assessment and Uncovering Foreign Military Innovations: Learning from Andrew W. Marshall’s Legacy’, Journal of Strategic Studies 43 (2020), 611–644; Andrew F. Krepinevich and Barry D. Watts, The Last Warrior: Andrew Marshall and the Shaping of Modern American Defense Strategy (New York: Basic Books 2015); John M. Schutte, Casting Net Assessment: Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War, Drew Paper No. 16 (Maxwell Air Force Base: Air University Press 2015); M. Augier, ‘Thinking about War and Peace: Andrew Marshall and the Early Development of the Intellectual Foundations for Net Assessment’, Comparative Strategy 32 (2013), 1–17; Stephen Peter Rosen, ‘The Impact of the Office of Net Assessment on the American Military in the Matter of the Revolution in Military Affairs’, Journal of Strategic Studies 33 (2010), 469–482.
2 Marshall authored an introductory chapter in Mahnken’s edited volume on net assessment that traces his career and discusses some of the key intellectual endeavors in which he was involved, but he does not discuss in any depth his basic beliefs or strategy for exerting influence. Andrew W. Marshall, ‘The Origins of Net Assessment’, in Net Assessment and Military Strategy: Retrospective and Prospective Essays, ed. Thomas G. Mahnken (NY: Cambria Press 2020).
3 Kurt Guthe conducted nine interviews with Marshall from September 1993 to January 1995 as part of a planned book on Marshall and net assessment; a tenth interview was conducted in October 1995, and two more in July 1999. Although other authors have cited the interviews, they have never been published. The forthcoming book will include all 12 interviews. Citations in this article are to the interview transcripts.
4 Marshall, Andrew W., ‘Themes 1ʹ, interview by Kurt Guthe, transcript, 24 September 1993.
5 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
6 Fox, R., ‘War and Human Nature’, The National Interest 30 (Winter 1992/93) 11–20.
7 Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (NY: Free Press 1992).
8 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
9 Barry Watts, who served in the Office of Net Assessment as a military assistant, identifies bounded human rationality as one of the barriers to acting strategically. Barry D. Watts, ‘Barriers to Acting Strategically: Why Strategy Is So Difficult’, in Competitive Strategies for the 21st Century: Theory, History, and Practice, ed. Thomas G. Mahnken (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2012), 57.
10 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
11 Andrew W. Marshall, ‘Themes 2ʹ, interview by Kurt Guthe, transcript, 6 October 1995.
12 Marshall, ‘Themes 2ʹ.
13 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
14 Marshall, ‘Themes 2ʹ.
15 Schama, S., ‘They All Laughed at Christopher Columbus’, The New Republic, 206/1-2 (6 and 13 January 1992), 30–40.
16 Marshall, ‘Themes 2ʹ. Adamsky has argued that Soviet culture shaped the development of the Soviet Union’s air defense system during the Cold War. Adamsky, ‘Art of Net Assessment,’ 638.
17 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
18 Marshall, ‘Themes 2ʹ. Joseph Loftus joined RAND in 1954 after serving as the civilian director of the Target Programs Office in the Air Force Intelligence Agency. Marshall and Loftus worked closely together for the next decade. Schutte, Casting Net Assessment, 35–36. Marshall’s and Loftus’s realization that research on organizational behavior could offer insight regarding Soviet actions has been well documented. See Adamsky, ‘Art of Net Assessment,’ 612; Rosen, ‘Impact of the Office of Net Assessment,’ 474; and Watts, ‘Barriers to Acting Strategically,’ 57.
19 Marshall, ‘Themes 2ʹ.
20 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
21 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
22 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
23 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
24 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
25 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
26 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
27 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
28 Rosen has called the development of the concept of long-term peaceful competition between defense organizations ‘one of the major intellectual contributions made by Mr. Marshall.’ Rosen, ‘Impact of the Office of Net Assessment,’ 477.
29 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
30 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
31 Marshall, Andrew W., ‘1950–1969,’ interview by Kurt Guthe, transcript, 29 October 1993.
32 Marshall, ‘1950–1969ʹ.
33 Marshall, ‘1950–1969ʹ.
34 Watts also identifies resource constraints as another barrier to acting strategically. Barry D. Watts, ‘Barriers to Acting Strategically,’ 55.
35 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
36 For a brief overview of the development of cost-imposing strategies during the period, see Gordon S. Barrass, ‘U.S. Competitive Strategy during the Cold War,’ in Competitive Strategies for the 21st Century: Theory, History, and Practice, ed. Thomas G. Mahnken (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2012) 71–89.
37 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
38 Marshall, ‘Themes 2ʹ.
39 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
40 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ. Along the same lines, Marshall observed in his introduction to Mahnken’s edited volume, ‘Thus, when the Soviet Union was pouring money into air defences, it meant that other capabilities such as naval forces could not be as well financed.’ Marshall, ‘The Origins of Net Assessment,’ 5–6.
41 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
42 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
43 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
44 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
45 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
46 Marshall, ‘1950–1969ʹ.
47 Marshall, ‘1950–1969ʹ.
48 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
49 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
50 Marshall, A., ‘Sources of Soviet Power: The Military Potential in the 1980s’, Adelphi Papers 19/152 (1979) 11.
51 Marshall, Andrew W., ‘1977–1980,’ interview by Kurt Guthe, transcript, 8 April 1994. Feshbach was the chief of the USSR Population, Employment, Research, and Development Branch of the Foreign Demographic Analysis Division of the U.S. Census Bureau from 1957 to 1981 and a research professor at Georgetown University from 1981 to 2000.
52 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
53 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
54 Marshall, ‘Sources of Soviet Power,’ 12.
55 Marshall, ‘Sources of Soviet Power,’ 12.
56 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
57 Marshall, ‘1950–1969ʹ.
58 Marshall, ‘1950–1969ʹ.
59 Marshall, Andrew W., ‘Talk for Book Project,’ interview by Kurt Guthe, transcript, 16 September 1993.
60 Brodie, B., C.J. Hitch, and A.W. Marshall, The Next Ten Years (CA: RAND, 1954).
61 Marshall, ‘Themes 2ʹ.
62 Marshall, ‘1950–1969ʹ.
63 Marshall, Andrew W., interview by Kurt Guthe, transcript, 20 July 1999.
64 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
65 Marshall, Andrew W., ‘1985–1988,’ interview by Kurt Guthe, transcript, 16 December 1994.
66 Marshall, Andrew W., ‘Part IV,’ interview by Alfred Goldberg and Maurice Matloff, 2 July 1992, 12–13.
67 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
68 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
69 Marshall, ‘Themes 2ʹ.
70 Goldhamer was a sociologist who served on the faculty of the University of Chicago before joining RAND. He was particularly interested in the psychological and political impact of military forces and programs. Leites was a Russian-born political scientist who immigrated to the United States, where he served on the faculty of the University of Chicago and as a research scientist at RAND. He was most well-known for applying the tools of psychoanalysis to the study of world political figures, including Joseph Stalin and the Soviet politburo.
71 Marshall, ‘Themes 2ʹ.
72 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
73 Marshall, ‘Themes 2ʹ.
74 Marshall, ‘Themes 1ʹ.
75 Marshall, Andrew W., J.J. Martin, and Henry S. Rowen, eds., On Not Confusing Ourselves, 303, (Boulder, CO: Westview Press 1991).
76 Mahnken offers a preliminary judgment on Marshall’s influence in a chapter of his edited volume on net assessment. He concludes that the office’s ‘influence varied dramatically.’ Some senior officials, but not all, valued Marshall’s ONA for its analysis and its roles as ‘a purveyor of ideas’ and ‘a convener of networks.’ Mahnken, Thomas G., ‘Net Assessment and its Customers’, in Thomas G. Mahnken (ed.), Net Assessment and Military Strategy: Retrospective and Prospective Essays (NY: Cambria Press 2020), 100.
77 Adamsky’s article on Marshall’s understanding of the Soviet emphasis on air defense and Adamsky’s and Rosen’s articles on Marshall’s role in the Revolution of Military Affairs are excellent early examples of such research. Adamsky, ‘The Art of Net Assessment;’ Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky, ‘The Revolution in Military Affairs’, in Thomas G. Mahnken (ed.), Net Assessment and Military Strategy: Retrospective and Prospective Essays (NY: Cambria Press 2020), 153–74; Rosen, ‘The Impact of the Office of Net Assessment.’
78 Dunford, Jr., General Joseph F., ‘Statement by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the Passing of Andrew Marshal’, 27 March 2019, https://www.jcs.mil/Media/News/News-Display/Article/1798193/statement-by-chairman-of-the-joint-chiefs-of-staff-on-the-passing-of-andrew-mar/.
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Notes on contributors
Robert G. Angevine
Robert G. Angevine is a Research Staff Member at the Institute for Defense Analyses. He has taught at George Washington University, George Mason University, American University, and Duke University.
Jeffrey S. McKitrick
Jeffrey S. McKitrick is a Research Staff Member at the Institute for Defense Analyses. He has served as a Military Assistant to the Director, Net Assessment, and as Military Advisor and Special Assistant to the Vice President of the United States.