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ABSTRACT
Since the Taliban’s seizure of Kabul in August 2021, there has been significant attention to and debate over China’s ties with the Taliban. This article traces the development of China-Taliban relations from the Afghan Civil War in the 1990’s to the present day. We find that China has consistently respected the Taliban as legitimate long-term political actors. We also find that the Taliban have found China to be a valuable source of economic and political support for its regime. We conclude with a discussion of the future trajectory of China-Taliban relations and the implications of this relationship for the balance of power in South Asia.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
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3 Iain Marlow and Enda Curran, ‘China Eyes Afghanistan’s $1 Trillion of Minerals with Risky Bet on Taliban’, Bloomberg, 24 August 2021.
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5 Huasheng Zhao. ‘Afghanistan and China’s new Neighbourhood Diplomacy’, International Affairs 92/4 (2016), 891–908.
6 Raghav Sharma, ‘China’s Afghanistan Policy: Slow Recalibration’, China Report 46, No. 3, 2010, p. 202.
7 Anath Krishnan and Stanly Johny, The Comrades and the Mullah’s: China, Afghanistan, and the Asian Geopolitics (Gurugram: HarperCollins 2022).
8 Jonathan Ludwig, ‘Sino-Afghan Relations in the Twenty-First Century: From Uncertainty to Engagement’, Griffith Asia Quarterly, 2015, p. 44.
9 Sharma, China’s Afghan Policy, 203.
10 E Ehsan Ahrari, ‘China, Pakistan, and the ‘Taliban Syndrome’, Asian Survey 40/4 (Jul.-Aug. 2000), 661.
11 Sharma, ‘China’s Afghanistan Policy’, 208.
12 Sharma, ‘China’s Afghanistan Policy’, 208.
13 Raphael Israeli, ‘A New Wave of Muslim Revivalism in China’, Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs 17/2 (1997), 273.
14 Raghav Sharma, ‘Afghanistan: Discerning China’s Westward March’, Asian Affairs 50/4 (2019), 550. In 1989 protests broke out in response to Salman Rushdie’s book The Satanic Verses which was perceived to be offensive to the Muslim. However, Chinese authorities allowed these demonstrations and moved quickly to ban the book and remove it from circulation. See Raphael Israeli, ‘A New Wave of Muslim Revivalism in China’.
15 Israeli, A New Wave, 269.
16 Ahmed Rashid, ‘Taliban Temptation’, Far Eastern Economic Review (1999), 22.
17 ‘Full Text of White Paper on History and Development of Xinjiang’, The Information Office of the State Council, 26 May 2003. http://en.people.cn/200305/26/eng20030526_117240.shtml.
18 Gardner Bovingdon, The Uyghurs: Strangers in Their Own Land (New York: Columbia UP 2010), 3.
19 Michael Clarke, ‘China’s War on Terror in Xinjiang: Human Security and the Causes of Violent Uighur Separatism’, Terrorism and Political Violence, 20/ 2 (2008), 156; and Sean R. Roberts, The War on the Uyghurs: China’s Internal Campaign against a Muslim Minority (Princeton: Princeton UP 2020), 66.
20 Information Office of the State Council of the PRC, ‘“East Turkistan Terrorist Forces Cannot Get Away with Impunity”’, People’s Daily, 21 January 2002, http://www.china.org.cn/english/2002/Jan/25582.htm.
21 Clarke, China’s War on Terror, 282.
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23 Roberts, The War on the Uyghurs, 105.
24 Roberts, The War on the Uyghurs, 105.
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26 Cloud and Johnson, ‘In Post-9/11 World’.
27 Michael E. Clarke, Xinjiang and China’s Rise in Central Asia- A History (New York: Routledge, 2011), 131.
28 Sean Roberts: A Land of Borderlands, 234.
29 Michael Clarke, ‘One Belt, One Road and China’s Emerging Afghanistan Dilemma’, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 70/5 (2016), 568.
30 C. Christine Fair, ‘Pakistan’s relations with Central Asia: Is Past Prologue?’ Journal of Strategic Studies 31/2 (2008), 201–227.
31 Andrew Small, ‘China’s Caution on Afghanistan-Pakistan’, The Washington Quarterly (July 2010), 90.
32 Small, ‘China’s Caution’, 90.
33 Sean R. Roberts, ‘A “Land of Borderlands”: Implications of Xinjiang’s Trans-border Interactions’, in S. Frederick Starr (ed.), Xinjiang: China’s Muslim Borderland (New York: Routledge 2004), 232.
34 Rashid, Taliban Temptation, 21.
35 J Mohan Malik, ‘Dragon on Terrorism: Assessing China’s Tactical Gains and Strategic Losses after 11 September’, Contemporary Southeast Asia 24/2 (August 2002), 258.
36 Clarke, One Belt, One Road, 570.
37 Clarke, One Belt, One Road, 570.
38 SOURCE.
39 See Malik, Dragon on Terrorism, 258–271.
40 C. Christine Fair, ‘Under the Shrinking US Security Umbrella: India’s End Game in Afghanistan?’ The Washington Quarterly, 34/2 (Spring 2011), 179–192; C. Christine Fair, ‘India and Iran: New Delhi’s Balancing Act’, The Washington Quarterly 30/3 (Summer 2007), 145–159; and Avinash Paliwal, My Enemy’s Enemy: India in Afghanistan from the Soviet Invasion to the US Withdrawal (Oxford University Press, 2017).
41 Despite Pakistani hopes, the Taliban never accepted the hotly contested the Durand Line as the de jure international border between Pakistan and Afghanistan and harbored Pakistani criminals wanted in Pakistan. See Ijaz Ahmad Khan. ‘Understanding Pakistan’s Pro-Taliban Afghan Policy’, Pakistan Horizon 60/2 (2007), 141–157; and Satinder Kumar Lambah, ‘The Durand Line’, Indian Foreign Affairs Journal 7/1 (2012), 42–60.
42 Quoted in Sharma, Afghanistan: Discerning China’s Westward March, 553.
43 S. Yaqub Ibrahimi, ‘The Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (1996–2001): “War-Making and State Making” as an Insurgency Strategy’, Small Wars and Insurgencies 28/6 (2017), 962.
44 Ibrahimi, ‘The Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’, 962.
45 Ibrahimi, ‘The Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’, 964.
46 Roberts, The War on the Uyghurs, 105.
47 Roberts, The War on the Uyghurs, 108.
48 Roberts, The War on the Uyghurs, 109.
49 Roberts, The War on the Uyghurs, 108–109.
50 Cloud and Johnson, ‘In Post-9/11 World’.
51 Small, China’s Caution on Afghanistan-Pakistan, 88.
52 Sharma, ‘China’s Afghanistan Policy’, 203.
53 Carlotta Gall, ‘11 Chinese Workers Killed in Rebel Attack in Afghanistan’, The New York Times, 10 June 2004. https://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/10/international/asia/11-chinese-workers-killed-in-rebel-attack-in-afghanistan.html.
54 Michael Wines, ‘China Willing to Spend Big on Afghan Commerce’, The New York Times, 29 December 2009.
55 Sharma, ‘‘China’s Afghanistan Policy’, 204.
56 Michael M. Phillips and Shai Oster, ‘U.S. and China Work Together to Rebuild Afghanistan’, The Wall Street Journal, 20 June 2009.
57 Sharma, ‘China’s Afghanistan Policy’, 204.
58 Hamid Shalizi, ‘China’s CNPC begins oil production in Afghanistan’, Reuters, 21 October 2012.
59 Archie Hunter, Julian Luk, Yasemin Esmen, ‘Afghanistan’s mighty copper reserves remain out of reach, even for China’, Fast Markets Bulletin, 24 August 2021. https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/4004437/Afghanistans-mighty-copper-reserves-remain-out-of-reach-even-for-China.html.
60 See Farhan Bokhari, ‘Pakistani Islamists Sign Deal with China’, CBS News, 18 February 2009.
61 Farhan Bokhari, ‘Pakistani Islamists’.
62 Sharma, Afghanistan, 553.
63 Sharma, Afghanistan, 553.
64 Zhao, Afghanistan and China, 891–908.
65 Huasheng, Chinese Views of Post-2014 Afghanistan, 57.
66 Mohan, Dragon on Terrorism, 261. For a critical examination of the moderate Taliban myth see Vikash Yadav, ‘The Myth of the Moderate Taliban’, Asia Affairs: An American Review 37 (2010), 133–145.
67 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China ‘Full Text of Chinese FM’s Remarks at London Conference on Afghanistan’, January 29, 2010; Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, ‘Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi Attends the International Conference on Afghanistan’, 21 July 2010.
68 See Ron Synovitz, ‘Afghanistan: U.S. Worried Iran Sending Chinese Weapons to Taliban’, Radio Free Europe, 14 September 2007.
69 Sharma, Afghanistan, 554.
70 Teddy Ng, ‘Sun Yuxi appointed special envoy to Afghanistan’, South China Morning Post, 19 July 2014.
71 Zhao Huasheng, ‘Afghanistan and China’s New Neighborhood diplomacy’, International Affairs 92/4 (2016), 893.
72 Zhao Huasheng, ‘Afghanistan’.
73 Li Yonghui and Zhao Jinfu, ‘Constructing a Strategic Peripheral Belt to Support the Wings of China’s Rise’, Contemporary International Relations 23/6 (2013), 66.
74 Yonghui and Jinfu, ‘Constructing’, 66.
75 Peng, Yuan ‘China’s Grand Periphery Strategy’, Contemporary International Relations 23/6 (2013), 59–60.
76 Sebastien Goulard, ‘Does the Belt and Road Have a Future in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan?’ The Diplomat, 21 August 2021.
77 Ghulam Ali ‘China – Pakistan cooperation on Afghanistan: assessing key interests and implementing strategies’, The Pacific Review (2020), 1–23.
78 Ali, ‘China – Pakistan’. See also Times of Israel, ‘China “strategic accord” could give Iran a $400 billion boost, up military ties’, 13 July 2020. Akram Umarov, ‘Assessing China’s new policy in Afghanistan’, Central Asian Affairs, 4/4 (2017), 384–406.
79 Zhao Hong, ‘The Forming of the China’s Afghan policy: March West’ Strategy?’ The Journal of East Asian Affairs, 44/1 (2013), 27–43; and Azeta Hatef and Luwei Rose Luqiu, ‘Where does Afghanistan fit in China’s Grand Project? A Content Analysis of Afghan and Chinese News Coverage of the One Belt, One Road Initiative’, International Communication Gazette 80, 551–569.
80 Eltaf Najafizada, ‘U.S., Afghan Study Finds Mineral Deposits Worth $3 Trillion’, Bloomberg, 29 January 2011. See also: Marlow, Iain and Edna Curran, ‘China Eyes Afghanistan’s $1 Trillion of Minerals With Risky Bet on Taliban’, Bloomberg, 24 August 2021.
81 Ali, China – Pakistan Cooperation on Afghanistan, 7.
82 ‘CCCC Project Singing Ceremony Witnessed by Afghan President’, China Communications Construction Company Ltd., 10 January 2017.
83 Zhuo YongBiao, ‘China’s Afghanistan Policy Since 9/11: Stages and Prospects’, Asian Survey 58/2, 292.
84 YongBiao, China’s Afghanistan Policy Since 9/11, 292.
85 Ishrat Husain, ‘CPEC and Pakistani Economy: An Appraisal’, Center of Excellence: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Report 36 https://ir.iba.edu.pk/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1039&context=faculty-research-books.
86 Feng Zhang, ‘China’s New Engagement with Afghanistan after the Withdrawal’, LSE Public Policy Review 2/3 (2022), 5.
87 Umair Jamal, ‘Does Pakistan Have the Capability to Secuire CPEC Projects?’ The Diplomat, 22 July 2022. https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/does-pakistan-have-the-capability-to-secure-cpec-projects/.
88 See Hamid Shalizi, ‘Afghan’s arrested Chinese Uighurs to aid Taliban Talk bid’, Reuters, 20 February 2015.
89 Raffaello Pantucci and Alexandros Petersen, ‘Shifts in Beijing’s Afghan Policy: A View from the Ground’, China Brief 12 No 21, 2012, https://jamestown.org/program/shifts-in-beijings-afghan-policy-a-view-from-the-ground/.
90 Clarke, China’s War on Terror, 283.
91 Marc Julienne and Moritz Rudolf, ‘The Terrorist Threat in China’, The Diplomat, 26 May 2015.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/the-terrorist-threat-in-china/.
92 Clarke, China’s War on Terror, 283.
93 Carrie Gracie, ‘The Knife Attack that Changed Kunming’, BBC, 16 July 2014. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-28305109.
94 ‘Islamist Group Calls Tiananmen Attack “Jihadist Operation”: Monitoring Service’, SCMP, 24 November 2013. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1364374/jihadist-group-speaks-out-tiananmen-square-car-attack.
95 Ali, China – Pakistan Cooperation on Afghanistan, 1–23.
96 The State Council of the People’s Republic of China, ‘Let Us Join Hands to Promote Security and Prosperity of Afghanistan and the Region’, 31 October 2014.
97 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, ‘Wang Yi: China is willing to Play Constructive Role in peaceful Reconciliation Process of Afghanistan’, 1 November 2014.
98 Shannon Tiezzi, ‘China Hosted Afghan Taliban for Talks: Report’, The Diplomat, 7 January 2015.
99 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, ‘Wang Yi: Resolving the Afghanistan issue requires strengthening support in four areas’, 12 February 2015.
100 Petr Topychkanov, ‘Secret Meeting Brings Taliban to China’, Carnegie Endowment, 28 May 2016. https://carnegiemoscow.org/2015/05/28/secret-meeting-brings-taliban-to-china-pub-60241; and Reid Standish, ‘Explainer: Why Is China Talking To The Taliban?’, Gandhara, 20 July 2021.
https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/explainer-china-taliban-afghanistan/31368531.html.
101 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, ‘Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang’s Regular Press Conference on June 20, 2019’, 20 June 2019.
102 Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban and the United States, February 29, 2020.
103 Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban and the United States, February 29, 2020. See also Ali, ‘China – Pakistan cooperation on Afghanistan: assessing key interests and implementing strategies’, The Pacific Review (2020), 1–23.
104 Ghulam Ali ‘China – Pakistan cooperation on Afghanistan: assessing key interests and implementing strategies’, The Pacific Review (2020), 1–23.
105 Sharma, Afghanistan, 555.
106 Barbara Kelemen, “China’s Clouded Future in Afghanistan,” The Diplomat, February 22, 2023. https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/chinas-clouded-future-in-afghanistan/.
107 Steven Lee Myers, ‘China Offers the Taliban a Warm Welcome While Urging Peace Talks’, The New York Times, 28 July 2021.
108 Feng Zhang, China’s New Engagement with Afghanistan after the Withdrawal, LSE Public Policy Review, 7.
109 Yaroslav Trofimov and Chao Dengin, ‘Afghanistan’s Taliban, Now on China’s Border, Seek to Reassure Beijing’, The Wall Street Journal, 8 July 2021.
110 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China (MOFA, PRC), ‘Xi Jinping Talks on the Phone with Afghan President Ghani’, 16 July 2021.
111 ‘China can contribute to Afghan development-Taliban spokesman’, Reuters, 19 August 2021.
112 ‘Taliban leader meets Chinese ambassador in Kabul, discuss bilateral issues’, The Times of India, 7 September 2021.
113 Zhang, China’s New Engagement, 7.
114 FM Shakil, ‘China extends a fast helping hand to the Taliban’, Asia Times, 9 September 2021. https://asiatimes.com/2021/09/china-extends-a-fast-helping-hand-to-the-taliban/.
115 Eltaf Najafizada, ‘China’s Foreign Minister Wany Yi Meets Taliban Leaders in Kabul’, Bloomberg, 24 March 2022.
116 Ruth Pollard, ‘Is China About to Tuck Afghanistan Under Its Belt and Road’, Bloomberg, 17 August 2021.
117 Samya Kullab, ‘With Eye to China Investment, Taliban Now Preserve Buddhas’, Bloomberg, 27 March 2022.
118 Li Shimo, ‘Exclusive Interview with Yue Xiaoyong, China’s Special Envoy on the Afghan Issue’, YouTube Video, 28 August 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t94SlfsXmLA&ab_channel=%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F%E8%80%85%E7%BD%91.
119 Mei Xinyu, ‘Do Not Blidnt Revel in the Post-American Afghan Economy’, (Chinese), Aisixiang, 18 August 2021. http://www.aisixiang.com/data/128108.html.
120 ‘Pan Guang: The Taliban may be different from more than 20 years ago, but the essence has not changed’, Guancha (Chinese), 20 August 2021, https://www.guancha.cn/PanGuang/2021_08_20_603675.shtml.
121 Rachel Cheung, Vice News, 16 August 2022. Is China Replacing the US in Afghanistan? A Reality Check.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/z34m89/is-china-replacing-us-in-afghanistan.
122 Eltaf Najafizada, ‘China Wooed Taliban With Investment Promises That Haven’t Panned Out’, Bloomberg, 26 September 2022. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-26/china-s-failure-to-invest-in-afghanistan-is-frustrating-the-taliban?leadSource=uverify%20wall.
123 See also: Shuli Ren, ‘How Afghanistan Snags China in $282 Billion Creditor Trap’, Bloomberg, 18 August 2021.
124 Michael Kugelman, ‘The Taliban Pick Fight Over Border with Pakistan’, Foreign Policy, 6 January 2022.
125 See Secunder Kermani, ‘Imran Khan: What Led to Charismatic Pakistan PM’s Downfall’, BBC News, 10 April 2022.
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Luke Encarnation
Luke Encarnation is a graduate of Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service and The University of St. Andrews.
C. Christine Fair
C. Christine Fair is a professor within the Security Studies Program within Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. She can be reached at [email protected].