Meeting the China challenge: Some insights from scenario‐based planning

Abstract

‘Meeting the China Challenge’ employs the methodology of scenario‐based planning to offer a set of recommendations for long‐term U.S. policy toward China. The article first describes the core elements of this analytical technique. It then uses a version of the scenario‐based planning approach to establish four plausible scenarios regarding China's future role in East Asian security. Finally, it outlines a combination of shaping and hedging strategies that would best advance US security interests in East Asia over the next 20 years.