Signaling resolve, democratization, and the first battle of Fallujah

Abstract

Perceptions and efforts to signal resolve can play an important role in counterinsurgency. The Coalition offensive against Fallujah in April 2004 demonstrates the limitations of relying on military force to signal resolve. The offensive catalyzed insurgent violence in Iraq and generated popular support for the insurgency. The Coalition prematurely halted the offensive because the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC) could not maintain support for the Coalition in the face of popular outrage. Given the importance of democratizing Iraq and establishing a sovereign government, the objections of the IGC could not be ignored. Without Iraqi political support, military force ultimately signaled weakness instead of resolve.

Key Words:

• counterinsurgency
• Fallujah
• Iraq

Acknowledgment

The author thanks Professor Robert O'Neill, Professor Robert Powell, and Colonel John Coleman for their helpful comments.

Notes

³Jeffrey Race, War Comes to Long An: Revolutionary Conflict in a Vietnamese Province (Berkeley: California UP 1973), 191.

¹James Morrow, ‘The Strategic Setting of Choices: Signaling, Commitment, and Bargaining in International Politics’, in David Lake and Robert Powell (eds.), Strategic Choice and International Relations (Princeton: PUP 1999), 86–96. James Fearon, ‘Rationalist Explanations for War’, International Organization 49/3 (Summer 1995), 371–414.

²James Fearon, ‘Civil war since 1945: Some facts and a theory’, Presentation to American Political Science Association, Washington DC, Sept. 2005, 25. Robert Powell, ‘Bargaining and Learning While Fighting’, American Journal of Political Science 48/2 (April 2004), 344–61.

⁴Mia Bloom, Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror (NY: Columbia UP 2005), 125.

⁵ National Security Strategy of the United States, Sept. 2002.

⁶Jonathan Monten, ‘The Roots of the Bush Doctrine: Power, Nationalism, and Democracy Promotion in U.S. Strategy’, International Security 29/4 (Spring 2005), 148–49, 151.

⁷Michael Rubin, ‘To Win in Fallujah’, FrontPageMagazine.com, 18 May 2004.

⁸Bing West, No True Glory: A Frontline Account of the Battle for Fallujah (NY: Bantam Books 2005), 234.

⁹West, No True Glory, 319.

¹⁰Bloom, Dying to Kill, 17, 35, 37, 82, 90, 92, 195.

¹¹Race, War Comes to Long An, 283.

¹²Kenneth Schultz, ‘Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises’, American Political Science Review 92/4 (Dec. 1998), 829–44. Ronald Rogowski, ‘Institutions as Constraints on Strategic Choice’, in Lake and Powell Strategic Choice and International Relations, 134–35. Robert Putnam, ‘Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games’, International Organization 42/3 (Summer 1988), 427–60.

¹³Gil Merom, How Democracies Lose Small Wars: State, Society, and the Failures of France in Algeria, Israel in Lebanon, and the United States in Vietnam (Cambridge: CUP 2003), 19, 24.

¹⁴For the sake of simplicity, this article refers to all Iraqi Sunni Arabs as ‘Sunnis’ even though many Kurds and jihadists were also Sunni. The paper also generally refers to members of the insurgency as ‘insurgents’ when not differentiating between Sunni resistance and jihadists.

¹⁵National Surveys of Iraq, Oxford Research International, March 2004. By comparison, 64 percent of southern Iraq (Shia dominant) viewed the invasion as liberation.

¹⁶Scott Johnson, ‘Inside an Enemy Cell’, Newsweek, 18 Aug. 2003.

¹⁷Zarqawi letter, <www.cpa-iraq.org/transcripts/20040212_zarqawi_full.html>.

¹⁸Ahmed Hashim, ‘The Insurgency in Iraq’, Small Wars & Insurgencies 14/3 (Aug. 2003), 9.

¹⁹Zarqawi letter.

²⁰Ibid.

²¹National Surveys of Iraq, Oxford Research International, March 2004.

²²Zarqawi letter.

²³Discussion with 3rd Brigade, 82nd Airborne Division, Camp Fallujah, 22 March 2004.

²⁴Discussion with 505th ICDC Battalion, Camp Fallujah, 23 March 2004.

²⁵Johnson, ‘Inside an Enemy Cell’.

²⁶Discussions with 2/4, 1st Marine Division Headquarters, Camp Pendleton, 22 March 2005.

²⁷Discussion with 505th ICDC Battalion, Camp Fallujah, 23 March 2005. Fallujah Planning Brief, Camp Fallujah, 16 March 2004. Charles Clover, ‘Smiles and Shrugs Speak Volumes about Nature of Attacks on American Troops’, London Financial Times, 25 Sept. 2003.

²⁸3rd Brigade, 82nd Airborne Division Targeting Meeting, Camp Fallujah, 8 March 2004.

²⁹Discussions with 2nd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, Camp Baharia, June 2004.

³⁰I MEF Brief to Lieutenant General Sanchez, Camp Fallujah, 3 April 2004.

³¹Rajiv Chandrasekaran, ‘Anti-U.S. Uprising Widens in Iraq’, Washington Post, 8 April 2004.

³²Fallujah Fatwa, Hamza Abbas Muhana and Muhammad Mutlik Obeid, 1 April 2004.

³³L. Paul Bremer, My Year in Iraq: The Struggle to Build a Future of Hope (NY: Simon & Schuster 2006), 317.

³⁴West, No True Glory, 59.

³⁵Bremer, My Year in Iraq, 317.

³⁶West, No True Glory, 7.

³⁷Bremer, My Year in Iraq, 322.

³⁸Ibid., 325–6.

³⁹I MEF Brief to General Abizaid, Camp Fallujah, 9 April 2004.

⁴⁰Civil Affairs Mission, Regimental Combat Team 1 Civil Affairs Detachment, Fallujah, 2 May 2004.

⁴¹I MEF Operational Planning Team on Displaced Persons, Camp Fallujah, 16 April 2004.

⁴²Nicholas Riccardi, ‘A Peacemaker Runs the Gauntlet in Fallouja’, Los Angeles Times, 16 April 2004.

⁴³I MEF Brief to General Abizaid, Camp Fallujah, 9 April 2004.

⁴⁴Discussion with CPA Representative to Fallujah and Regimental Combat Team 1, Camp Fallujah, 8 April 2004.

⁴⁵Comments by Lieutenant Colonel Gregg Olson, RCT-1 After Action Review, Camp Fallujah, 5 May 2004.

⁴⁶Significant numbers of men lost the will to continue fighting after one week of combat, though.

⁴⁷Discussions with 2nd Battalion, 4th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division Headquarters, Camp Pendleton, 22 March 2005.

⁴⁸Camp Fallujah, I MEF Refugee Planning Meeting, 20 April 2004.

⁴⁹West, No True Glory, 225, 315.

⁵⁰Ron Hassner, ‘Fighting Insurgency on Sacred Ground’, Washington Quarterly 31/1 (Spring 2006), 156. Christine Hauser, ‘War Reports From Civilians Stir Up Iraqis Against U.S.’, New York Times, 14 April 2004.

⁵¹Interview with Ahmad Mansur, Al Jazeera correspondent in Fallujah, Al Jazeera Satellite Channel Television, 5 April 2004.

⁵²Chandrasekaran, ‘Anti-U.S. Uprising Widens in Iraq’.

⁵³Comments by Lieutenant General James Conway, Camp Fallujah, 29 April 2004. Discussion with Lieutenant General John Sattler, Camp Pendleton, 10 Nov. 2004.

⁵⁴Chandrasekaran, ‘Anti-U.S. Uprising Widens in Iraq’.

⁵⁵International Republican Institute Poll, April 2004. Karl Vick and Anthony Shadid, ‘Fallujah Gains Mythic Air: Siege Redefines Conflict for Iraqis in Capital’, Washington Post, 13 April 2004.

⁵⁶Alissa Rubin, ‘Fallujah's Fighters Trade Weapons, Not Allegiances’, Los Angeles Times, 9 May 2004.

⁵⁷Pamela Constable, ‘Marines Try to Quell “A Hotbed of Resistance”, Washington Post, 9 April 2004.

⁵⁸James Hider, ‘We All Fight Together, Rebels Proclaim’, The Times (London), 8 April 2004.

⁵⁹Hider, ‘We All Fight Together, Rebels Proclaim’.

⁶⁰Vick and Shadid, ‘Fallujah Gains Mythic Air’.

⁶¹I MEF Brief to General Abizaid, Camp Fallujah, 9 April 2004. Bremer, My Year in Iraq, 333–34.

⁶²Larry Diamond, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq (NY: Henry Holt 2005), 234.

⁶³Operational Planning Team on MEF Operational Plan, Camp Fallujah, 8 April 2004. Bremer, My Year in Iraq, 333.

⁶⁴I MEF Brief to General Abizaid, Camp Fallujah, 9 April 2004.

⁶⁵Bremer, My Year in Iraq, 326–27.

⁶⁶Lieutenant General James Conway, Address to I MEF Command Element, Camp Fallujah, 29 April 2004. West, No True Glory, 159–60.

⁶⁷Comments by Lieutenant Colonel Gregg Olson, RCT-1 After Action Brief, Camp Fallujah, 5 May 2005.

⁶⁸ICRSS Poll, 20–29 April 2004. The poll was conducted in Baghdad, Basra, Mosul, Babil, Diyala, Ramadi, and Sulaymaniya. It surveyed 1,530 households.

⁶⁹ICRSS Poll, 20–29 April 2004.

⁷⁰I MEF Commanders' Discussion, Camp Fallujah, 14 April 2004.

⁷¹Lieutenant General James Conway, Address to I MEF Command Element, Camp Fallujah, 29 April 2004. Discussion with CPA Representative to Fallujah, Camp Fallujah, 30 April 2004.

⁷²I MEF Commanders' Discussion, Camp Fallujah, 26 April 2004.

⁷³Comments by Lieutenant General James Conway, Camp Fallujah, 17 April 2004. Comments by Lieutenant General James Conway, Camp Fallujah, 26 April 2004.

⁷⁴I MEF Brief to General John Abizaid, Camp Fallujah, 5 May 2004.

⁷⁵Colonel John Coleman, Talk to I MEF staff, Camp Fallujah, 10 March 2004.

⁷⁶Comments by Lieutenant General James Conway, Camp Fallujah, 26 April 2004.

⁷⁷Ibid., 9 May 2004.

⁷⁸Ibid., 29 April 2004.

⁷⁹Discussion with Captain Rodrick McHaty (I MEF Foreign Area Officer), Camp Fallujah, 30 April 2004.

⁸⁰Friday Prayer Messages in Fallujah, Translated by Captain Rodrick McHaty, 9 May 2004.

⁸¹Comments by Colonel John Coleman, Camp Fallujah, 1 May 2004. Discussion with CPA Representative to Fallujah, Camp Fallujah, 2 May 2004. Lieutenant General Sanchez Briefing, Camp Fallujah, 9 June 2004.

⁸²Norland, Masland, and Dickey, ‘Unmasking the Insurgents’, 27.

⁸³West, Not True Glory, 227.

⁸⁴Daniel Williams, ‘Despite Agreement, Insurgents Rule Fallujah’, Washington Post, 7 June 2004.

⁸⁵Discussion with RCT-1, Camp Fallujah, 19 May 2004. Discussion with 1st Reconnaissance Battalion, Camp Fallujah, 26 April 2004.

⁸⁶Comments by Lieutenant General James Conway, Camp Fallujah, 29 April 2004.

⁸⁷Discussion with 1st Reconnaissance Battalion, Camp Fallujah, 24 April 2004.

⁸⁸West, No True Glory, 190.

⁸⁹Rubin, ‘Fallujah's Fighters Trade Weapons, Not Allegiances’.

⁹⁰Vick and Shadid, ‘Fallujah Gains Mythic Air’.

⁹¹Discussions with 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st US Division, Camp Ramadi, 14 June 2004. Discussions with 1st Battalion, 34th Armored Regiment, Camp Habbaniyah, July 2004. Discussions with 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, Camp Mercury, 1 Aug. 2004.

⁹²Fallujah Brigade Meeting, Fallujah Liaison Center, Fallujah, 20 May 2004. Discussion with Captain Rodrick McHaty, Camp Fallujah, 8 May 2004.

⁹³Fallujah Brigade Meeting, Fallujah Liaison Team Center, Fallujah, 6 May 2004.

⁹⁴Fallujah Brigade Meeting, Fallujah Liaison Team Center, Fallujah, 6 May 2004. Conversation with Captain Rodrick McHaty, Camp Fallujah, 11 May 2004.

⁹⁵Discussion with Captain Rodrick McHaty, Camp Fallujah, 28 May 2004.

⁹⁶Observations at I MEF Headquarters, Camp Fallujah, 30 April to 10 June 2004.

⁹⁷West, No True Glory, 224.

⁹⁸Rubin, ‘Fallujah's Fighters Trade Weapons, Not Allegiances’.

⁹⁹Conversation with CPA Representative to Fallujah, Camp Fallujah, 4 May 2004.

¹⁰⁰Brief to Ambassador Robert Blackwill, Camp Fallujah, 23 May 2004.

¹⁰¹Briefing on Future Development of Iraqi Security Forces, Camp Fallujah, 20 May 2004.

¹⁰²Brief to Ambassador Robert Blackwill, Camp Fallujah, 23 May 2004.

¹⁰³Briefing to General John Abizaid, Camp Fallujah, 2 June 2004.

¹⁰⁴Meeting with Fallujah Brigade leadership, Camp Fallujah, 2 June 2004. I MEF Commanders' Discussion, Camp Fallujah, 5 June 2004. Discussion with Captain Rodrick McHaty, Camp Fallujah, 6 June 2004. Comments by Lieutenant General Conway, Camp Fallujah, 8 June 2004.

¹⁰⁵Discussions with 2nd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, Camp Baharia, 27 June 2004. Discussions with 2nd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, TCP-1, Fallujah, 27 June 2004.

¹⁰⁶Farnaz Fassihi, ‘Strange Bedfellows in Iraq: Complex Web of Shiite Politics Helps and Hinders U.S. Efforts’, Wall Street Journal, 16 April 2004. John Burns, ‘Leading Shiites and Rebel Meet on Iraq Standoff’, New York Times, 13 April 2004.

¹⁰⁷Diamond, Squandered Victory, 216, 232, 243–44.