Hoping for the Best, preparing for the worst: China's response to US hegemony

Abstract

In the post-Cold War strategic environment, Beijing could plausibly have opted for Soviet-style geostrategic competition with Washington, but it has not. Chinese leaders have not thus far, and almost certainly will never, amass thousands of nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert or deploy significant forces to a network of bases spanning the globe. Nevertheless, the below assessment of China's increasing hard and soft power yields the conclusion that a Chinese challenge to US hegemony cannot be ruled out. The United States must prudently maintain military forces appropriate to facing a potential peer competitor. At the same time, however, Washington must engage in a process of creative diplomacy that simultaneously matches China's soft power and engages seriously with Beijing to create areas of consensus and cooperation.

Key words:

• Chinese military
• US defense policy
• hegemony
• US-China relations

Notes

¹The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the official policies or assessments of the US Navy or any other agency within the US Government.

²See, for example, Jonathan D. Pollack (ed.), Strategic Surprise? US-China Relations in the Early Twenty-First Century (Newport, RI: Naval War College Press 2003).

³See, for example, [Li Bing], [Naval Heroes: An Assembly of Heroic Models from the People's Navy] (Beijing: Sea Tide Press 2003), 253–5.

⁴Alan M. Wachman, ‘Challenges And Opportunities In The Taiwan Strait: Defining America's Role’, National Council on US-China Relations, China Policy Series, No. 17, Jan. 2001, 9, <www.ncuscr.org/Publications/Cross-Strait%20Report.pdf>.

⁵For an analysis that emphasizes the importance of both bilateral and multilateral cooperation in combating terrorism to China's national security see [Zhang Jie], ‘’[China's Anti-Terrorism Policy: Principle, Substance, and Measures], [Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies], No. 11 (2005), 31–7.

⁶Charles Hutzler, ‘China's Economic, Diplomatic Aid to Pakistan Has Played Key Role in US's War on Terror’, Wall Street Journal, 17 Dec. 2001, W1.

⁷See, for example, Tim Luard, ‘China's Changing Views of Terrorism’, BBC News Online, 25 Dec. 2003, <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3320347.stm>.

⁸‘Jiang Zemin Announces PRC Aid to Afghanistan,’Xinhua, 20 Dec. 2001, FBIS# CPP 20011220000178.

⁹Keith Bradsher, ‘3 in Hong Kong Agree to Face Charges in US,’New York Times, 7 Jan. 2003, A2.

¹⁰Authors' interview, Beijing, June 2006.

¹¹Although this rendering of China's strategic interests is somewhat confrontational, it should be noted that the author suggests that political means will often be more appropriate than the use of force for pursuing China's strategic interests. [Wang Guifang], ‘’[National Interests and the Choice of Chinese Security Strategies], [China Military Science] 19/1, 76–83.

¹² [Liu Hong], ‘’[Reviewing the Last Four Years of Heated US-Taiwan Relations and Their Influence], essay in [Hao Yufan and Zhao Quansheng (eds.)], –[Bush's Predicament—Domestic and Overseas Experts' Perspectives on Trends in US Foreign Policy] (Beijing: [Current Affairs Press] 2005), 260.

¹³ [Ding Yuanhong],‘’[Characteristics and Trends of the International System's Development], [International Studies], No. 1 (2006), 20.

¹⁴Office of the Secretary of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People's Republic of China, p. I, <www.dod.mil/pubs/pdfs/China%20Report%202006.pdf>.

¹⁵For a discussion of China's hedging strategy, see Evan S. Medeiros, ‘Strategic Hedging and the Future of Asia-Pacific Stability,’Washington Quarterly 28/4 (Winter 2005–06), 145–67.

¹⁶ [Su Hao], ‘’[Geogravitational Centers and World Political Fulcrums], [Contemporary International Relations], No. 4 (2004), 60.

¹⁷Discussion between Chinese official and author, Beijing, June 2006.

¹⁸Zhao Huasheng, ‘Can China, Russia, and the United States Cooperate in Central Asia?’Zhanlue yu Guanli, March 2004, FBIS# CPP20040420000264, 3. See also [Jiang Yi], ‘’[China's Multilateral Diplomacy and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization], [Russia, Central Asia, and East European Research] (Oct. 2003), 84.

¹⁹ [Ma Jiali], ‘’[New Developments of the China-Russia-India Triangle], [Contemporary International Relations], No. 7 (2005), 60–1.

²⁰Zhang Wenmu, ‘China's Energy Security and Policy Choices’, Shijie Jingji Yu Zhengzhi[World Economics & International Politics], No. 5 (May 2003), 11–16, FBIS# CPP20030528000169.

²¹Christopher Pala, ‘China Pays Dearly for Kazakhstan Oil’, New York Times, 17 March 2006, <www.nytimes.com/2006/03/17/business/wrldbusiness/17kazakh.html>.

²²Pliny Han, ‘Kazakhstan Oil Pours into China Through Crossborder Pipeline,’Xinhua, 25 May 2006, <http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-05/25/content_4600061.htm>.

²³Kent Calder, ‘East Asia and the Middle East: Together Again’, SAISPHERE (Winter 2005), 19.

²⁴Dino Mahtani, ‘Nigeria Shifts to China Arms’, Financial Times, 28 Feb. 2006, 1.

²⁵Joshua Eisenman, ‘Zimbabwe: China's African Ally’, China Brief 5/15 (5 July 2005) on the website of the Jamestown Foundation at <http://jamestown.org>.

²⁶Clifford A. Shelton, ‘Dragon Ascending: China's Growing Economic Relationship with Africa’, The Africa Journal (May/June 2005), 11.

²⁷Humphrey Hawksley, ‘Chinese Influence in Brazil Worries US’, BBC News, 3 April 2006, <http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/americas/4872522.stm>.

²⁸Todd Benson, ‘China Fuels Brazil's Dream of Being a Steel Power’, New York Times, 21 May 2004.

²⁹‘Venezuela Buys Military Goods from China, Blasts US’, Taipei Times, 6 Aug. 2005, <www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2005/08/06/2003266653>.

³⁰Xian Wu, ‘The Economic Incentives in the China-EU Partnership’, essay in Zhou Hong and Wu Baiyi (eds.), China-EU Partnership: Possibilities and Limits (Beijing: China Social Sciences Publishing House 2004), 294.

³¹‘EU Becomes China's Largest Trading Partner,’People's Daily Online, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-01/07/content_406961.htm.

³²‘ASEAN + 3 (China, Japan, and South Korea),’ US-ASEAN Business Council, <www.us-asean.org/ASEANOverview/asean + 3.asp>.

³³See, for example, Robert M. Hathaway, ‘George Bush's Unfinished Asian Agenda’, 13 May 2005, Foreign Policy Research Council,<www.fpri.org/enotes/20050513.asia.hathaway.bushasia.html>.

³⁴ [Zheng Yisheng], ‘’[A New Change in America's Policy Toward Southeast Asia as Viewed Through Military Exercises], Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies, No. 8 (2005), 50–6.

³⁵‘Japan’, CIA World Factbook 2006,<www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ja.html#Military>.

³⁶Evan A. Feigenbaum, ‘China's Challenge to Pax Americana’, Washington Quarterly 24/3 (Summer 2001), 36.

³⁷‘Joint Statement of the US-Japan Security Consultative Committee’, 19 Feb. 2005, <www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2005/42490.htm>.

³⁸Jim Yardley and Keith Bradsher, ‘China Accuses US and Japan of Interfering on Taiwan’, New York Times, 21 Feb. 2005.

³⁹ [Zhang Jingquan], ‘’[A Preliminary Probe of Japan's Maritime Rights Outlook and Maritime Strategy], [Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies] 5 (2005), 35.

⁴⁰ [Liu Yi and Wang Xiaoling], ‘’[Reflections on China's Rise], [Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies] 2 (2005), 19–23.

⁴¹Craig Timberg, ‘Militants Warn China Over Oil in Niger Delta’, Washington Post, 1 May 2006, A15.

⁴²‘Pakistan Arrests 13 in Car Bomb Attack on Chinese’, Xinhua, 5 May 2004, <www.china.org.cn/english/2004/May/94666.htm>.

⁴³ [Li Bing][Naval Heroes: An Assembly of Heroic Models from the People's Navy], 3.

⁴⁴Jim Yardley and Thom Shanker, ‘Chinese Navy Buildup Gives Pentagon New Worries’, New York Times, 8 April 2005.

⁴⁵Bill Gertz, ‘Chinese Produce New Type of Sub’, Washington Times, 16 July 2004, <www.washtimes.com/national/20040716-123134-8152r.htm>.

⁴⁶Richard D. Fisher, Jr., ‘Trouble Below: China's Submarines Pose Regional, Strategic Challenges’, Armed Forces Journal (March 2006), 34.

⁴⁷Ibid., 34.

⁴⁸ [Zhang Feng], [Nuclear Submarines and China's Navy], [Naval & Merchant Ships] (March 2005), 12.

⁴⁹Authors' interview, Beijing, Dec. 2005.

⁵⁰See, for example, [Liu Jian and Huang Wenbin], ‘’[A Method of Calculating the Dispersion Probability of Self-Propelled Mines], [Torpedo Technology], 13/3 (Sept. 2005), 43–45.

⁵¹US Dept. of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China, June 2000, 16, <www.defenselink.mil/news/Jun2000/china06222000.htm>.

⁵²See, for example, the discussion of a potential PLA Navy anti-helicopter mine program in [Lin Changsheng], ‘’[The Hidden Dragon in the Deep: The Present Situation and Development of PLA Mine Weaponry], [World Outlook], No. 9, (May 2005), 28.

⁵³‘Senior Military Officer: China to Develop Its Own Aircraft Carrier Fleet,’Wen Wei Po, 10 March 2006, FBIS# CPP20060310508004. This statement corresponds to authors' interviews with naval Chinese naval strategists in 2005, and a senior Chinese official in 2006, that suggest the PLAN has wanted to pursue aircraft carriers for a long time, but has been constrained by the political leadership.

⁵⁴ [Du Gang], ‘’[A Discussion of Military Force Requirements During China's Peaceful Development], [Strategy & Management] 3 (2004), 55.

⁵⁵Authors interview, Beijing, June 2006.

⁵⁶‘Introduction’, China's Aerospace Industry—The Industry and its Products Assessed (Coulsden, UK:, Jane's Information Group, 2 April 1997).

⁵⁷‘Land-Attack Cruise Missile (LACM),’China Defence Today, <www.sinodefence.com/strategic/missile/cruisemissile.asp>.

⁵⁸Unless otherwise specified, data in this paragraph is derived from Evan Medeiros et al., A New Direction for China's Defense Industry (Santa Monica, CA: RAND 2005), 199, 165, 160, 180.

⁵⁹‘Fighter Aircraft’, China Defence Today, <www.sinodefence.com/airforce/fighter/default.asp>.

⁶⁰‘KJ-2000 Airborne Warning & Control System’, <www.sinodefence.com/airforce/specialaircraft/kj2000.asp>. China purchased Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft in 2000.

⁶¹‘Y-8 ‘Balance Beam’ Airborne Early Warning Aircraft’, <//www.sinodefence.com/airforce/specialaircraft/y8balancebeam.asp>.

⁶²See, for example, ‘Observation Post of Military Situation’, HK Phoenix TV, Military News, FBIS# CPP20060626715001, 21 June 2006.

⁶³Yitzhak Shichor, ‘The US Factor In Israel's Military Relations With China’, China Brief 5/12, The Jamestown Foundation, , 24 May 2005, <www.jamestown.org/publications>.

⁶⁴‘WZ-10 Attack Helicopter’, China Defense Today, <www.sinodefence.com/airforce/helicopter/wz10.asp>.

⁶⁵ Naxing-1 was designed to conduct high-technology experiments. See ‘’[Small Satellite Development Attains Breakthroughs], [Spaceflight & Aviation], 200412[Armed Forces Dual Use Technology and Products 5 (2004)], <http://www.space.cetin.net.cn/docs/mp0405/mp0405hthk.htm>; ‘’[Our Country Successfully Launches Two Scientific Experiment Small Satellites], 20045[Aerospace China 5 (2004)], <www.space.cetin.net.cn/docs/ht0405/ht0405zgbd01.htm>.

⁶⁶See, for example, [Zuo Saiqun], ‘‘’ ’[‘Sea Eye’ Looks Down on 10,000 Miles of Sea Dominion—Recording Our Country's First Ocean Satellite], [People's Net], 16May 2002, <www.people.com.cn/GB/kejiao/42/155/20020516/729817.html>.

⁶⁷Roger Cliff, The Military Potential of China's Commercial Technology (Arlington, VA: RAND 2001), 29.

⁶⁸‘1001000’, [From 100 to 1000 kilograms, Our Country is Moving Toward Small Satellite Manufacturing Seriation], 24 Nov. 2003, <www.spacechina.com/index.asp?modelname=nr&recno=6574>.

⁶⁹ [Hu Zhang], ‘‘’—, ‘’’[The Long March 2-C Takes Flight From Three Locations within One Year–A New Benchmark in the Progress of Satellite Construction Technology], [Chinese Aerospace Project Consultation Center], 24 Nov. 2004, <www.spacechina.com/index.asp?modelname=nr&recno=14842>.

⁷⁰ [Res. Col. Ying Shaoji], ‘’[A Discussion of Chinese Communist Party Small Satellite Science and Technology Trends’, [Air Force Science Monthly], Taiwan, retrieved from <www.mnd.gov.tw/division/∼defense/mil/mnd/mhtb/ /565/565-6.htm>.

⁷¹The geostationary orbit of the Beidou constellation minimizes the need for a large number of satellites but limits their coverage.

⁷²See ‘’[Beidou Satellites and the Shenzhou (Manned Spacecraft's) Navigation], China Surveying and Mapping, No. 4 (2003); ‘’[Beidou Satellites’ Communication Capacity for Use in an Automatic Hydrological Survey System], Hydrology, No. 5 (2003).

⁷³See ‘“GPS—‘’[There is a GPS System with ‘Chinese Characteristics’—The Beidou Satellite System's Strategic Use], [World Outlook], No. 8 (2004).

⁷⁴Gustav Lindstrom and Giovanni Gasparini, The Galileo Satellite System and its Security Implications, Occasional Paper No. 44 (Paris: EU Institute for Security Studies 2003), 29, <www.iss-eu.org/occasion/occ44.pdf>.

⁷⁵See, for example, [Yu Xiang], ‘’[Implementation of the EU's ‘Galileo’ Project Enters the Next Stage], [Aerospace Electronic Warfare], No. 2 (2005).

⁷⁶Lindstrom and Gasparini, The Galileo Satellite System and its Security Implications, 2.

⁷⁷Dept. of Defense, 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review, <www.defenselink.mil/qdr/>;‘The National Security Strategy of the United States of America’, March 2006.

⁷⁸For an argument that this movement has run its course, see Robert S. Ross, ‘Taiwan's Fading Independence Movement’, Foreign Affairs 85/2 (March/April 2006).

⁷⁹Authors interviews, Taipei, Nov. 2004.

⁸⁰‘Taiwan Politician Has Explaining to Do,’New York Times, 17 March 2006, <www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-Taiwan-Weapon-Woes.html>.

⁸¹Edward Cody, ‘Taiwan's President on Shaky Ground: Missteps, Scandal Erode Leadership’, Washington Post, 2 June 2006, A13.

⁸²Michael McDevitt, ‘Taiwan: The Tail that Wags Dogs’, Asia Policy, No. 1 (Jan. 2006), 92.

⁸³For related analysis by the former Naval Attaché at the PRC Embassy in Washington (1995–2000), see [Yang Yi], ‘’[Can Military Contacts Further US-China Relations?], [Globe], 1 June 2006, 22–4.

⁸⁴Permanent Mission of Switzerland to the United Nations, ‘Contribution to the UN Budgets’, <www.eda.admin.ch/newyork_miss/e/home/unbudg.html>.

⁸⁵Authors interviews, Beijing, June 2006.

⁸⁶Authors interviews, Bejing, Dec. 2005.

⁸⁷ [Li Zhengnan], ‘’[The Position and Limitations of the Peaceful Conception of China's Multilateral Diplomacy in Northeast Asia], [Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies] 6 (2005), 12.

⁸⁸Authors' interviews, China, Dec. 2006.

⁸⁹ [Wang Jisi], ‘’[The Historic Lesson of the US-Soviet Contest for Hegemony and China's Peaceful Rise], essay in China's Peaceful Rise: The New Path (Beijing: [Party School International Strategy Research Institute], April 2004.

⁹⁰William C. Wohlforth, ‘The Stability of a Unipolar World’, International Security 24/1 (Summer 1999), 5–41.

⁹¹Ibid., 7–8.

⁹²Authors interview, Beijing, June 2006. It is important to note that this same official emphasized his personal efforts to reign in this tendency.