Remolding great power politics: China's strategic partnerships with Russia, the European Union, and India

Abstract

The article investigates China's strategic partnerships with Russia, the European Union (EU), and India. The bulk of it is devoted to a comprehensive inquiry into Sino-Russian strategic partnership. An analysis is also offered on China's strategic partnerships with EU and India. Through a comparative study, it is clear that these partnerships are driven by a common political commitment by China and the other three major powers to maintaining a mutually positive interactive pattern in their relationships. Despite competitive dynamics in these dyads, China's partnership diplomacy has reflected its successful effort to remold great power politics such that the international environment is overall friendly to its rise.

Key words:

• Sino-Russian ties
• Strategic Partnership
• Sino-EU relationship
• Sino-Indian Relationship

Acknowledgements

Earlier versions of the paper were presented at the American Association for Chinese Studies 46th Annual Conference, Williamsburg, Virginia, 22–24 Oct. 2004, and American Political Science Associations 102nd Annual Conference, Philadelphia, PA, 31 Aug.–3 Sept. 2006. I am grateful to Vincent Wang, Quansheng Zhao, and Guoli Liu, organizers of the conference panels. I also thank Lowell Dittmer, Gilbert Rozman, Robert Sutter, and an anonymous reviewer of the journal for their most helpful comments.

Notes

¹The most notable comprehensive studies in the English language tracing the evolution of Russia-China relationship are Elizabeth Wishnick, Mending Fences: The Evolution of Moscow's China Policy from Brezhnev to Yeltsin (Seattle, WA: Univ. of Washington Press 2001); Alexander Lukin, The Bear Watches the Dragon: Russia's Perceptions of China and the Evolution of Russian-Chinese Relations since the 18th Century (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2003); Jeanne L. Wilson, Strategic Partners: Russian-Chinese Relations in the post-Soviet Era (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2004). They tend to focus on the bilateral interaction from the Russian perspectives.

²Jennifer Anderson, The Limits of Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership, Adelphi Paper 315 (Oxford: OUP for IISS 1997); Andew C. Kuchins, ‘The Limits of the Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership’, in Andrew C. Kuchins (ed.), Russia After the Fall (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2002), 205–20; Bobo Lo, ‘The Long Sunset of Strategic Partnership’, International Affairs 80/2 (2004), 295–309.

³See, for example, Dmitri Trenin, ‘The China Factor: Challenge and Chance for Russia’, in Sherman W. Garnett (ed.), Rapprochement or Rivalry: Russia-China Relations in a Changing Asia (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2000), 39–70; Robert H. Donaldson and John A. Donaldson, ‘The Arms Trade in Russian-Chinese Relations: Identity, Domestic Politics, and Geopolitical Positioning’, International Studies Quarterly 47 (2003), 709–32.

⁴Stephen J. Blank, ‘Russia Looks at China’, in Stephen Blank and Alvin Z. Rubinstein (eds.), Imperial Decline: Russia's Changing Role in Asia (Durham, NC: Duke UP 1997), 65–98. Quote on p.90.

⁵Neil MacFarlane, ‘Realism and Russian Strategy after the Collapse of the USSR’, in Ethan B. Kapstein and Michael Mastanduno (eds.), Unipolar Politics: Realism and State Strategies After the Cold War (New York: Columbia UP 1999), 218–60; William C. Wohlforth, ‘Russia's Soft Balancing Act’, in Richard J. Ellings and Aaron L. Friedberg with Michael Wills (eds.), Strategic Asia 2003–04: Fragility and Crisis (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research 2003), 165–79.

⁶Robert Jervis, ‘Theories of War in an Era of Leading-Power Peace’, American Political Science Review 96/1 (March 2002), 1–14; Richard Rosecrance (ed.), The New Great Power Coalition (Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield 2001; John Garver, ‘Sino-Russian Relations’, in Samuel S. Kim (ed.), China and the World: Chinese Foreign Policy Faces the New Millennium (Boulder, CO: Westview Press 1998), 114–32.

⁷James M. Goldgeier, ‘Prospects for US-Russian Cooperation’, in Kuchins, Russia After the Fall, 281–2.

⁸Li Jingjie, ‘From Good Neighbors to Strategic Partners’, in Garnett, Rapprochement or Rivalry, 72–9.

⁹Cui Xiantao, Mianxiang Ershiyi Shiji De Zhonge Zhanlue Xiezuo Heban Guanxi[Sino-Russian Strategic and Cooperative Partnership Facing the 21st Century] (Beijing: Zhonggong Zhongyang Dangxiao Chubanshe 2003), 4–5.

¹⁰Qin Qichen, Waijiao Shiji[Ten Stories of a Diplomat] (Beijing: Shijie Zhishi Chubanshe 2003), 228–9.

¹¹Noting the quick three-step improvement in Sino-Russian relations has become the standard Chinese characterization. For a representative view, see Liu Guchang, ‘Sino-Russian Good-Neighborly, Friendly, and Cooperative Relations in the 21st Century’, Qiushi (Internet), No. 23 (1 Dec. 2002), in Foreign Broadcast Information Service (hereafter cited as FBIS): CPP20021205000044.

¹²Qian, Ten Stories, 240.

¹³The role of the Russian Far East in influencing Sino-Russian relations is well covered in the literature. See Michael McFaul, ‘The Far Eastern Challenge to Russian Federalism’, in Garnett, Rapprochement or Rivalry, Chap. 11, 313–45; Wishnick, Mending Fences, Chap. 9; Rajan Menon and Charles E. Ziegler, ‘The Balance of Power and US Foreign Policy Interests in the Russian Far East’, in Judith Thornton and Charles E. Ziegler (eds.), Russia's Far East: A Region at Risk (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research/Univ. of Washington Press 2002), 35–56; Elizabeth Wishnick, ‘Regional Dynamics in Russia's Asia Policy’, in ibid., 293–317;Bruce A. Elleman, ‘Russian Foreign Policy in the Chinese Context’, in Blank and Rubinstein, Imperial Decline, 99–126; Blank, ‘Russia Looks at China’, 72–3.

¹⁴Mickhail Alexseen, ‘Chinese Migration in the Russian Far East: Security Threat and Incentives for Cooperation in Primorskii Krai’, in Thornton and Ziegler, Russia's Far East, 319.

¹⁵Alexseen, ibid., 319; Wishnick, Mending Fences, 154.

¹⁶See, e.g., Cui, Sino-Russian Strategic and Cooperative Partnership, 492–3.

¹⁷Li Chuanxun, ‘Eluosi Yuandong Duihua Guanxi De Huigu Yu Zhanwang’[Russian Far East's Relations with China: Retrospect and Prospect], Qiushi Xukan (Harbin), Feb. 2000, 34–7, reprinted in Renmin Univ. of China, Chinese Diplomacy, June 2002, 24–6; Cui, Sino-Russian Strategic and Cooperative Partnership, 493.

¹⁸Lukin, The Bear Watches the Dragon, 167–8.

¹⁹Galina Vitkovskaya, Zhanna Zayonchkovskaya, and Kathleen Newland, ‘Chinese Migration into Russia’, in Garnett, Rapprochement or Rivalry, Chap. 12, quote on p.350.

²⁰Peter Baker, ‘A Tense Divide in Russia's Far East’, Washington Post, 29 July 2003, A09.

²¹See also Alexseev, ‘Chinese Migration in the Russian Far East’, 319–47; Wishnick, Mending Fences.

²²See Lukin, The Bear Watches the Dragon, Chap. 3.

²³Cui, Sino-Russian Strategic and Cooperative Partnership, 17–18; Ni Xiaoquan, ‘China's Threat Perceptions and Policies toward the Russian Far East’, in Thornton and Ziegler, Russia's Far East, 375–95; Georgi F. Kunadze, ‘Border Problems Between Russia and Its Neighbors’, in Gilbert Rozman, Mikhail Nosov, and Koji Watanabe (eds.), Russia and East Asia (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe 1999), 135–41.

²⁴‘Heixiazidao Huigui Zhongguo Quzhelu: Sishi Yunian Silun Tanpan’[The Tortuous Road of the Black Bear Island's Return to China: Four Rounds of Negotiations in over Forty Years], Nanfang Zhoumo (Southern China Weekend), 26 May 2005, at <http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2005-05-26/17456758256.shtml> (accessed 11 June 2005); Li Fenglin, ‘Guanyu Zhongsu/e Bianjie Tanpan Jiqi Qianjing’[On Sino-Soviet/Russian Border Negotiations and Their Prospects], at the China Institute of International Studies website, <www.ciis.org.cn/item/2005-05-31/50988.html> (accessed 1 July 2005).

²⁵Kunadze, ‘Border Problems Between Russia and Its Neighbors’, 135–6; Ni, ‘China's Threat Perception and Policies toward the Russian Far East’, 383; Li Fenglin, ‘On Sino-Soviet/Russian Border Negotiations and Their Prospects.’

²⁶Lo, ‘The Long Sunset of Strategic Partnership’, 297. See David Lague and Susan V. Lawrence, ‘In Guns We Trust’, Far Eastern Economic Review, 12 Dec. 2002, 32–5; Wilson, Strategic Partners, 102.

²⁷For an overview of Russian arms sales to China, see Wilson, Strategic Partners, 93–113 (Chap. 5).

²⁸For a Chinese listing of the problems, see ‘Why Sino-Russian Trade not Up to US$20 Billion’, <http://english.people.com.cn/200404/09/eng20040409_139952.html> (accessed 11 July 2004).

²⁹For an overview, see Lukin, The Bear Watches the Dragon.

³⁰Yan Xuetong et al., Zhongguo Jueqi—Guoji Huanjing Pinggu[China's Rise: An Evaluation of the International Environment] (Tianjin: Renmin Chubanshe 1998), 270–1.

³¹Ni Yanshuo, ‘Aiming for Security’, Beijing Review, 1 Sept. 2005, 13.

³²Sherman Garnett, ‘Challenges of the Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership’, Washington Quarterly 24/4 (Autumn 2001), 41–54; Gilbert Rozman, ‘Sino-Russian Relations: Mutual Assessments and Predictions’, in Garnett, Rapprochement or Rivalry, 147–74; Lowell Dittmer, ‘The Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership’, Journal of Contemporary China 28 (2001), 399–413; Garver, ‘Sino-Russian Relations’.

³³Alexander A. Sergunin, ‘ Discussions of International Relations in Post-Communism Russia’, Communist and Post-Communist Studies 27/1 (March 2004), 20–1.

³⁴For the trauma inflicted on Russia by the NATO expansion, see Margot Light, John Lowenhardt and Stephen White, ‘Russia and the Dual Expansion of Europe’, in Gabriel Gorodetsky (ed.), Russia between East and West: Russian Foreign Policy on the Threshold of the Twenty-First Century (London/Portland, OR: Frank Cass 2003), 61–74; William D. Jackson, ‘Encircled Again: Russia's Military Assesses Threats in the Post-Soviet World’, Political Science Quarterly 117/3 (Fall 2002), 373–400; Sergei Medvedev, ‘Power, Space, and Russian Foreign Policy’, in Ted Hopf (ed.), Understandings of Russian Foreign Policy (University Park: Pennsylvania State UP 1999), 46; Vladimir Branovsky, ‘Russian Views on NATO and the EU’, in Anatol Lieven and Dmitri Trenin (eds.), Ambivalent Neighbors: The EU, NATO, and the Price of Membership (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2003), 269–94; Dmitri Trenin, The End of Eurasia: Russia on the Border between Geopolitics and Globalization (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2002), 270–97.

³⁵See Michael McFaul, ‘A Precarious Peace: Domestic Politics in the Making of Russian Foreign Policy’, International Security 22/3 (Winter 1997/98), 5–35; Dimitri Simes, After the Collapse: Russia Seeks Its Place as a Great Power (New York: Simon & Schuster 1999); Bobo Lo, Russian Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era: Reality, Illusion and Mythmaking (New York: Palgrave Macmillan 2002).

³⁶A.P. Tsygankov and P.A. Tsygankov, ‘New Directions in Russian International Studies: Pluralization, Westernization, and Isolationism’, Communist and Post-Communist Studies 37/1 (March 2004), 4.

³⁷For a concise discussion of Atlanticism and Eurasianism, see Sergunin, ‘ Discussions of International Relations in Post-Communism Russia’, 20–3. For the best work on the implications of this debate for Russia's policy choices in Asia, see also Oles M. Smolansky, ‘Russia and the Asia-Pacific Region: Policies and Polemics’, in Blank and Rubinstein, Imperial Decline, 7–39.

³⁸For discussions of liberal and realist views, see Pavel A. Tsygankov and Andrei P. Tysygankov, ‘Dilemmas and Promises of Russian Liberalism’, Communist and Post-Communist Studies 37/1 (March 2004), 53–70; Tatyana A. Shakleyina and Aleksei D. Bogaturov, ‘The Russian Realist School of International Relations’, Communist and Post-Communist Studies 27/1 (March 2004), 37–51.

³⁹Quoted in Smolansky, ‘Russia and the Asia-Pacific Region’, 22; Shakleyina and Bogaturov, ‘Russian Realist School of International Relations’.

⁴⁰Quoted in Lukin, The Bear Watches the Dragon, 305.

⁴¹See, for example, Aleksandr Grigoryevick Yakovlev, ‘Russia and China in the Structuring of a New World Order’, Moscow Problemy Dalnego Vostoka, No. 6 (Nov.–Dec. 1998), 23–9, in FBIS: FTS19990316000015; Lukin, ‘Russia's Image of China and the Russian-Chinese Relations’; Lo, Russian Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era, 57–9.

⁴²Pan Deli and Xu Zhixin (eds.), Eluosi Shinian, Vol. II [Ten Years of Russia: Politics, Economics, and Foreign Policy] (Beijing: Shijie Zhishi Chubanshe 2003); Li Jingjie, ‘Shilun Zhonge Zhanlue Xiezuo Huoban Guanxi’[On Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership of Coordination], Dongou Zhongya Yanjiu, No. 2 (1997), at <www.cass.net.cn/chinese/s24_oys/chinese/Magazine/Yanjiu/9702/001.htm> (accessed 12 July 2005); Yang Jiemian, ‘Chongzhanlue Huoban Dao Yidiyiyou De Meie Guanxi’[US-Russian Relations: From Strategic Partnership to Mixture of Enmity and Friendship], Guoji Guancha, No. 1 (2000), in Renmin University of China, International Politics, No. 5 (2000), 80–4; Feng Yujun, ‘Xifang Weihe Paichi Eluosi’[Why Does the West Exclude Russia], Huaqiu Shibao, 29 Aug. 2002, 4; Michael Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security Environment (Washington DC: National Defense UP 2000), 173–5.

⁴³Jiang Yi et al., Chongzhen Daguo Xiongfeng: Pujing De Waijiao Zhanlue[Reinvigorating Great Power Ambitions: Putin's Diplomatic Strategy] (Beijing: Shijie Zhishi Chubanshe 2004); Feng Shaolei and Xiang Lanxin (ed.), Pujing Waijiao (Putin's Diplomacy) (Shanghai: Shanghai Renmin Chubanshe 2004); Xu Zhixin, ‘Pujing Shiqi Eluosi Duiwai Zhanlue Jiexi'’[Diagnosis of Russian Foreign Strategy during the Putin Era], Eluoshi, Zhongya, Dongou Yanjiu (Russian, Central Asian and East European Studies), No. 3 (June 2004), 50–7; Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security Environment, Chap. 4.

⁴⁴Yong Deng, ‘Hegemon on the Offensive: Chinese Perspectives of the US Global Strategy’, Political Science Quarterly 116/3 (Fall 2001), 343–65.

⁴⁵Shakleyina and Bogaturov, ‘The Russian Realist School of International Relations’; Simes, After the Collapse, 206–7; Lo, Russian Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era, 24–6.

⁴⁶See the Chinese text of the treaty, Renming Ribao overseas edition (hereafter cited as RMRB), 17 July 2001.

⁴⁷Alexander Lukin, ‘Russia's Image of China and the Russian-Chinese Relations’, 5, <www.brookings.org/dybdocroot/fp/cnaps/papers/lukinwp-01.pdf>; Rong Ying, ‘A Strategic Triangle’, Beijing Review, 5 Aug. 2005, 10; Bin Yu, ‘Historical Ironies, Dividing Ideologies and Accidental “Alliance”: Russian-Chinese Relations into the 21st Century’, in Carolyn W. Pumphrey (ed.), The Rise of China in Asia: Security Implications (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute 2002), 144–6; Wishnick, Mending Fences, 157; Jackson, ‘Encircled Again’, 373–400.

⁴⁸Editorial, ‘New Milestone in Sino-Russian Relations’, RMRB, 16 July 2003, 1; Zhou Zhunnan, ‘Shining Example for a New Mode of International Relations’, RMRB, 16 July 2002, 3; Gu Ping, ‘A Model of New-Style State Relations’, Renmin Ribao (Internet), 4 Dec. 2002, 3, in FBIS: CPP20021204000039.

⁴⁹Dmitri Trenin, ‘From Pragmatism to Strategic Choice: Is Russia's Security Policy Finally Becoming Realistic?’ in Kuchins, Russia After the Fall, 192.

⁵⁰See Anderson, The Limits.

⁵¹See, for example, Jiang Yi, ‘Eluosi De Guoji Diwei Yu Waijiao Zhengce Xuanze’[Russia's International Status and Diplomatic Choice], Dongou Zhongya Yanjiu, No. 3 (2002), at <www.cass.net.cn/chinese/s24_oys/chinese/Magazine/Yanjiu/0203/020301.htm> (accessed 7 July 2005).

⁵²On Russia, see Jack Snyder, ‘Russia: Responses to Relative Decline’, in T.V. Paul and John A. Hall (eds.), International Order and the Future of World Politics (Cambridge: CUP 1999), 146–54; MacFaul, ‘A Precarious Peace’. On China, see Alastair Iain Johnston, ‘Is China a Status Quo Power?’International Security 27/4 (Spring 2003), 5–56.

⁵³Bin Yu, ‘Historical Ironies, Dividing Ideologies and Accidental “Alliance”’, 111–59; Gilbert Rozman, ‘China's Quest for Great Power Identity’, Orbis 43/3 (Summer 1999), 395–99; Alexei D. Voskressenski, ‘Russia's Evolving Grand Strategy toward China’, in Garnett, Rapprochement or Rivalry, 133–4.

⁵⁴For the Chinese version of the full text, see ‘Zhonge Guanyu Ershiyi Siji Guoji Zhixu de Lianhe Shengming’[Sino-Russian Joint Statement on the World Order of the 21st Century], RMRB, 2 July 2005, 4.

⁵⁵ RMRB, 29 May 2003, 1, 4.

⁵⁶L.N. Klepatskii, ‘The New Russia and the New World Order’, in Gorodetsky, Russia between East and West, 3–11; Lukin, The Bear Watches the Dragon, 306.

⁵⁷Cui, Sino-Russian Strategic and Cooperative Partnership, 78–81.

⁵⁸Zhuang Liwei, ‘Hu Jintao's Crucial Future’, Nanfeng Chuang, 1 June 2003, 12–14, in FBIS: CPP20030611000023. Quote on p.4

⁵⁹See also Rozman, ‘Sino-Russian Relations’.

⁶⁰Sergei V. Chugrov, ‘Russian Foreign Policy and Human Rights: Conflicted Culture and Uncertain Policy’, in David P. Forsythe (ed.), Human Rights and Comparative Foreign Policy (Tokyo: UN UP 2000), 156–61; Dittmer, ‘The Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership’, 410.

⁶¹The Chinese text can be found in RMRB, 19 July 2000, 1.

⁶²For a rare candid Chinese analysis, see Zhao Huasheng, ‘Shanghai Hezuo Zuzhi: Pinggu Yu Fazhan Wenti’[The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Assessment and the Problem of Development], Xiandai Guoji Guanxi, No. 5 (2005), at <www.irchina.org/news/view.asp?id=946> (accessed 25 July 2005).

⁶³‘Shanghai Hezuo Zuzhi Chengyuanguo Yuanshou Xuanyan’[The Leaders' Declaration of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States], RMRB, 6 July 2005, 5.

⁶⁴Artur Blinov, ‘Moscow and Beijing Do Not Scare Pentagon. But Exercises on Shandong Peninsula Bring Closer Formation of Military Component in SCO’, Moscow Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 25 Aug. 2005, 1, 5, in FBIS: CEP20050825019001; Li Yong, ‘SCO: Conglinian Miaixiang Shijian’[SCO: Leaping from Idea to Practice], Jiefangjun bao, 4 Nov. 2005,<http://jczs.sina.com.cn/2005-11-04/1325328739.html> (accessed 8 Nov. 2005).

⁶⁵Wishnick, Mending Fences, 142–3.

⁶⁶Trenin, End of Eurasia, 274.

⁶⁷From the English translation of the treaty published at the website of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs at <www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjb/zzjg/dozys/gjlb/3220/3221/t16730.htm> (accessed 18 Avg. 2004).

⁶⁸Natalya Meliova, ‘Putin Delights Chinese Comrades with Russian Reforms. And Chinese Comrades Delight Putin with Alla Pugachava's Songs “About Love and Sincere Impulse of the Soul”’, Moscow Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 15 Oct. 2004, 3, in FBIS: CEP20041015000178.

⁶⁹Baldev Raj Nayar and T.V. Paul, India in the World Order: Searching for Major-Power Status (Cambridge: CUP 2003), Chap. 6; John W. Garver, Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century (Seattle, WA: Univ. of Washington Press 2001), Chap. 12.

⁷⁰John W. Garver, The China-India-U.S. Triangle: Strategic Relations in the Post-Cold War Ear (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research 2002).

⁷¹Sun Shihai, ‘Zhouxiang Ershiyi Shiji de Zhongying Guanxi’[Sino-Indian Relationship Moving Toward the 21st Century], <www.cass.net.cn/chinese/s28_yts/wordch-en/ch-lzssh7.htm> (accessed 21 Oct. 2005).

⁷²Xinhua, ‘International Community Offers Assistance to China's Anti-SARS Campaign’, RMRB, 15 May 2003, 5.

⁷³‘Zhongying Chongqi Zhongduan Duonian Bianmao Gudao’[China and India Re-open Ancient Border Route After Many Years of Closure], RMRB, 22 June 2006, 1; Xinhua, ‘China, India to Reopen Border Trade at Tibetan Mountain Pass’, <http://news3.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-06/19/content_4713143.htm> (accessed 24 June 2006).

⁷⁴For a sampling of Chinese and Indian media reports, see Guo Nei, ‘Friendly Move Stressed in Sino-Indian Border Rift’, China Daily (Internet), 14 April 2005, FBIS: CPP20050414000020; Manoj Joshi: ‘The Bigger Picture – Found in Translation’, New Delhi Hindustan Times (Internet), 14 April 2005, FBIS: SAP20050414000066.

⁷⁵Xinhua, ‘Wen's Trip to Boost Sino-Indian links’, <http://news3.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-04/08/content_2802289.htm> (accessed 24 June 2006); Xinhua, ‘China, India to Reopen Border Trade at Tibetan Mountain Pass’.

⁷⁶For a succinct discussion of the perceptual gap between India and China, see Stephen P. Cohen, India: Emerging Power (Washington DC: Bookings Institution Press 2001), 256–9. For an extensive study of bilateral conflicts, see Francine R. Frankel and Harry Harding (eds.), The India-China Relationship: What the United States Needs to Know? (New York: Columbia UP 2004).

⁷⁷Tang Shiping, Shuozhao Zhongguo de Lixiang Anquan Huanjin[Constructing China's Ideal Security Environment] (Beijing: Zhongguo Shehuikexue Chubanshe 2003), 153. For a synopsis of India's concerns vis-à-vis China, see Sumit Ganguly, ‘Assessing India's Response to the Rise of China: Fears and Misgivings’, in Carolyn W. Pumphrey (ed.), The Rise of China in Asia: Security Implications (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute 2002), 95–104.

⁷⁸For Chinese analyses, see Zhao Gancheng, ‘Yingdu duihua Zhengce Bianxi’[A Diagnosis of India's China Policy], Dangdai Yatai[Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies], No. 11 (2003), 44–54; Sun Shihai, ‘Sino-Indian Relationship Moving Toward the 21st Century’.

⁷⁹Garver, Protracted Contest, 353.

⁸⁰Nayar and Paul, India in the World Order, 10, 222.

⁸¹For a balanced assessment, see Zhao Gancheng, ‘Zhongyin Guanxi: Gongtong Jueqi Yu Heping Gongchu’[Sino-Indian Relations: Rising together and Coexisting Peacefully], Guoji Wenti Luntan (International Review), No. 35 (Summer 2004), accessed at <http://www.siis.org.cn/gjwtlt/2004/IT2/zhaogancheng.htm> (12 Sept. 2005).

⁸²For how US policy impacted Sino-Indian relations after 9/11, see Garver, The China-India-U.S. Triangle.

⁸³See his succinct review of the China–Europe relationship during the Cold War in Michael B. Yahuda, ‘China and Europe: The Significance of a Secondary Relationship’, in Thomas W. Robinson and David Shambaugh (eds.), Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (New York: OUP 1995), 265–82.

⁸⁴For the best Chinese account, see Gao Hua, ‘Zhongou Guanxi Sansinian: Guoqu, Xianzai Yu Weilai’[Third Years of Sino-European Relationship: Past, Present, and Future], <www.iwep.org.cn/pdf/2006/zhongouguanxi30nian_gaohua.pdf> (accessed 24 Jan. 2006). The best work from the European perspective is Katinka Barysch (with Charles Grant and Mark Leonard), Embracing the Dragon: The EU's Partnership with China (London: Center for European Reform 2005).

⁸⁵The Chinese text of the document is published at <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/wjb/zzjg/xos/dqzzywt/t27700.htm> (accessed 9 Jan. 2005).

⁸⁶‘China-European Union Joint Press Communiqué (May 6, 2004)’, Xinhua Domestic Service, 6 May 2004, in FBIS: CPP20040506000202.

⁸⁷Axel Berkofsky, ‘EU-China Arms Ban Remains, for Now’, Asian Times, 3 Feb. 2005, at <http://atimes01.atimes.com/atimes/China/GB03Ad02.html> (accessed 2 June 2005); Edwin Chen, ‘Atlantic Divide on China’, Los Angeles Times, 23 Feb. 2005; Steven R. Weisman, ‘European Union Said to Keep Embargo on Arms to China’, New York Times, 22 March 2005; ‘EU Ups Stakes in Lifting of China's Arms Embargo’, Guardian, 13 May 2005, 1.

⁸⁸Gao Hua, ‘Third Years of Sino-European Relationship’, 5–6.

⁸⁹Yu Zheng, ‘Jialilue Daohang Weixing Shengkong’[The Galileo Navigational Satellite Lifts Off], RMRB, 29 Dec. 2005, 2; ‘Yearender: Sino-European Ties Pushes Strategic High-tech Cooperation’, at <http://english.people.com.cn/200512/13/eng20051213_227700.html> (accessed 12 July 2006).

⁹⁰Chinese analyses show a realist assessment of the relationship. See Liu Jiansheng, ‘Tanjiu Oumei Zai Jieche Duihua Junshou Shang De Maodun’[Exploring the EU-U.S. Contradictions on Lifting the Arms Sales Ban on China], at <http://www.ciis.org.cn/item/2005-04-07/50917.html> (accessed 9 July 2005); Huo Zhengde, ‘Lun Zhongou Zhanlue Guanxi’[On Sino-EU Strategic Partnership], Guoji Wenti Yanjiu, No. 2 (2005), at <www.irchina.org/news/view.asp?id=817> (accessed 7 June 2005); Gao Hua, ‘Third Years of Sino-European Relationship’; ‘Ouzhong Zjian Wenti Zhengjie Hezai’ (Where is the Crux of the Problem between EU and China?), RMRB, 2 July 2005, 5. See also Barysch (with Grant and Leonard), Embracing the Dragon; David Shambaugh, ‘The New Strategic Triangle: US and European Reactions to China's Rise’, Washington Quarterly 28/3 (Summer 2005), 7–25.

⁹¹See the Joint Statement signed by Presidents Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin, 14 May 2004, RMRB, 15 Oct. 2004, 1, 3; ‘Sino-Russian Joint Statement on the World Order of the 21st Century’.

⁹²For excellent expositions of the identity struggles in Chinese foreign policy and Sino-Russian relationship during the Cold War, see Lowell Dittmer, Sino-Soviet Normalization and Its International Implications, 1945–1990 (Seattle, WA: Univ. of Washington Press 1992); Lowell Dittmer and Samuel S. Kim (eds.), China's Quest for National Identity (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 1993).

⁹³Zhao Huasheng, ‘Zhonge Guanxi: Diwei, Moshi, Qushi’[Sino-Russian Relationship: Status, Mode, and Trends], Shijie Jingji Yu Zhengzhi, No. 5 (2004), 38–43.

⁹⁴Xu Zhixin, ‘Diagnosis of Russian Foreign Strategy during the Putin Era’, 52; Feng and Xiang, Putin's Diplomacy, 501.

⁹⁵Su Kaihua, ‘Emei Zhanlue Tiaozheng Jiqi Yingxiang’[Russian and US Strategic Adjustments and Their Impact], Dangdai Yatai, No. 4 (15 April 2003), 40. See also Lo, ‘The Long Sunset of Strategic Partnership’, 299; Donaldson and Donaldson, ‘The Arms Trade in Russian-Chinese Relations’, 728–30.

⁹⁶Jiang Yi and Zheng Yu, Siji Zhijiao De Zhonge Guanxi[Sino-Russian Relationship at the Turn of the Century], (Institute for Eastern Europe and Central Asia Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 1998), at <www.cass.net.cn/chinese/s24_oys/chinese/Production/projects29/mulu.html>, Chap. 4 (accessed 29 June 2005).

⁹⁷Wang Xianju, ‘Meiguo Yinsu Kaoyan Zhonge Guanxi’[The US Factor Tests Sino-Russian Relations), Global Times, 6 June 2005, 15 <www.people.com.cn/GB/paper68/14920/1323720.html> (accessed 12 June 2005).

⁹⁸For an excellent overview of Russia's American policy, see Alex Pravada, ‘Putin's Foreign Policy after 11 September: Radical or Revolutionary’, in Gorodetsky, Russia between East and West, 39–57. On cooperative Russian reactions to US initiatives in Central Asia, see Kathleen A. Collins and William C. Wohlforth, ‘Central Asia: Defying “Great Game” Expectations’, in Ellings and Friedberg, Strategic Asia 2003–04, 291–317.

⁹⁹Su Kaihua, ‘Russian and US Strategic Adjustments and Their Impact’, 39–43; Zhao Huasheng, ‘Sino-Russian Relationship’, 43.

¹⁰⁰Xing Guangcheng, ‘Considerations Arising from Changes in Sino-Russia-US Relations’, Xiandai Guoji Guanxi, No. 4 (April 2003), 16–18, FBIS: CPP20030514000198.

¹⁰¹On the Sino-Indian relationship, see also Ashley J. Tellis, ‘China and India in Asia’, in Frankel and Harding, The India-China Relationship, 134–77; John H. Gill, ‘India: Regional Concerns, Global Ambitions’, in Richard J. Ellings and Aaron L. Friedberg with Michael Wills (eds.), Strategic Asia: Fragility and Crisis (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research 2003), 181–207; Garver, The China-India-U.S. Triangle.

¹⁰²Barry Barnes, ‘Status Groups and Collective Action’, Sociology 26/2 (May 1992), 259–70.