Trends in migrant and ethnic minority voting in Australia: findings from the Australian election study

ABSTRACT

A review of the research literature on migrant voting in Australia shows that the “ethnic vote” has almost disappeared now that migrants tend to vote in a similar way to the rest of the population according to traditional class cleavages. In addition, it is argued that migrants in Australia predominantly reside in safe Labor seats that are represented by cabinet or shadow cabinet ministers. As such their group-based interests are often neglected by the major parties. Using findings from the ABS census and the 1993–2013 AES, this article re-examines whether there is a migrant vote, and if so, the extent to which migrant voting patterns have changed since the 1990s when the migrant and ethnic vote reached its peak. This study reveals patterns of migrant voting among certain birthplace subgroups that are more volatile than in previous decades but at the same time distinctive.

KEYWORDS:

• Australia
• voting
• migrants
• elections
• multiculturalism
• labour party

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank Ian McAllister, Jack Vowles, Fiona Barker, Kate McMillan, Antoine Bilodeau, James Jupp and Marshall Clark for their comments and advice on different sections in earlier drafts. The author would also like to thank the Australian Research Council for their part in funding this project and the anonymous reviewers for their many helpful suggestions.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Migrants from non-European countries in this paper predominantly refer to migrants who are from Asia, the Pacific Islands, Africa and the Middle East.

2. See Table 1A in the Appendix.

3. See Table 1A in the Appendix.

4. The size of the migrant populations may have changed slightly since 2011. Updated statistics will be available in the 2016 ABS census.

5. Classification of seats is applied by Australian Electoral Commission which views a marginal seat as one held by a margin of less than six per cent.

 

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Australian Research Council [grant number DE130101265].