One hundred thousand welcomes? Economic threat and anti-immigration sentiment in Ireland¹

ABSTRACT

Public opinion has moved towards a more restrictive approach to immigration since 2008, particularly in countries more strongly affected by economic recession. This is generally assumed to be a consequence of economic threat due to greater competition for scarce material resources, such as employment, leading to anti-immigration sentiment. However, not all individuals are affected equally by job losses, nor by the presence of migrants. Using data from the European Social Survey (2008–2016), in conjunction with the Labour Force Survey (2007–2016), this paper examines if individuals within occupations and sectors which face economic decline as measured by job losses, and which have a greater representation of migrants, are more likely to express anti-immigration sentiment. In line with the threat hypothesis the study finds that positive job growth is associated with pro-immigration sentiment while a greater share of migrants within occupations and sectors is linked to greater opposition towards immigration.

KEYWORDS:

• Anti-immigration attitudes
• economic threat
• European Social Survey
• Labour Force Survey
• Ireland

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank participants of the ‘Economic Sociology of Inequality’ session at the American Sociological Association Annual Conference 2019 for their helpful feedback.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 An earlier version of this paper, entitled “The Land of One Hundred Thousand Welcomes? Economic Threat and Attitudes towards Immigration in Ireland” was presented at the American Sociological Association Annual Conference on 12 August 2019, New York.

2 Economic challenges refer to economic decline within occupations/sectors as measured by job losses or negative job growth.

3 Several extensions of group conflict theory have been formulated. Integrated Threat Theory encompasses not only economic and symbolic threats but also negative stereotypes and intergroup anxiety (Stephan and Stephan 2000). Ethnic Competition Theory integrates social identity and realistic group conflict frameworks (Gijsberts, Hagendoorn, and Scheepers 2004).

4 Vulnerable to economic changes refers to job losses within occupations and sectors.

5 The answers were treated as Likert scale responses.Logistic regression models were carried out to ensure that the coefficients did not change from the coefficients obtained using linear regression.

6 Strict measurement invariance established across different ESS rounds for immigration scale: χ = 197.25 (df = 28, p < 0.001). RMSEA = 0.07; CFI = 0.98; SRMR = 0.02. Strong measurement invariance established across different ESS rounds for attitudes towards migrants scale: χ = 102.03 (df = 16, p < 0.001). RMSEA = 0.07; CFI = 0.99; SRMR = 0.01.

7 The measures of change are calculated by subtracting the value in t1 from the value in t2 and then dividing it by the initial value in t1. A similar approach has been used in Kuntz, Davidov, and Semyonov (2017).

8 The ESS question is phrased as How do you feel about your household's income nowadays?

9 Multilevel models should be used instead of single-level models when ICC is 5% or more (Mehmetoglu and Jakobsen 2017). The ICC for acceptance of migrants at level 3 is nearly 5%, furthermore the likelihood-ratio test (χ² =  215.12, p < 0.001) indicates that the three-level model offers a better fit to the data than the single-level model.