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International Journal of Remote Sensing Volume 29, 2008 - Issue 9: The Remote Sensing Heritage of Academician Kirill Ya Kondratyev
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Original Articles

A sequential analysis method for the prediction of tropical hurricanes

Alexandr I. Sukov Moscow State Technological University ‘STANKIN’, Vadkovsky Street, 1, Moscow, 127994, Russia
,
Vladimir Yu. Soldatov Moscow State Technological University ‘STANKIN’, Vadkovsky Street, 1, Moscow, 127994, Russia
,
Vladimir F. Krapivin Institute of Radioengineering and Electronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Vvedensky Square, 1 Fryazino, 141190 Mosow, Russia
,
Arthur P. Cracknell Division of Electronic Engineering and Physics, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN, UK
&
Costas A. Varotsos University of Athens, Faculty of Physics, Department of Applied Physics, Laboratory of Upper Air, Athens, GreeceCorrespondence[email protected]
Pages 2787-2798 | Received 15 Jan 2008, Accepted 16 Jan 2008, Published online: 25 Apr 2008
 
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Abstract

Transition processes between different situations in the ocean–atmosphere system are studied by means of the methods of sequential analysis. An instability indicator is introduced to be used as the generalized characteristics of the state for this system. The indicator is evaluated based on the data obtained from the TAO/TRITON&PIRATA system of anchored buoys and other meteorological stations located in the tropical zone of the World's oceans. It is shown that the combination of sequential and cluster analysis with the percolation model allows the detection of a tropical hurricane 1–2 days in advance of its initiation.

Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the Russian Fund for Basic Research (Grant No. 07‐01‐00068‐a).

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