Estimating winter crop area across seasons and regions using time-sequential MODIS imagery

Abstract

The wheat grain industry is Australia's second largest agricultural export commodity. There is an increasing demand for accurate, objective and near real-time crop production information by industry. The advent of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite platform has augmented the capability of satellite-based applications to capture reflectance over large areas at acceptable pixel scale, cost and accuracy. The use of multi-temporal MODIS-enhanced vegetation index (EVI) imagery to determine crop area was investigated in this article. Here the rigour of the harmonic analysis of time-series (HANTS) and early-season metric approaches was assessed when extrapolating over the entire Queensland (QLD) cropping region for the 2005 and 2006 seasons. Early-season crop area estimates, at least 4 months before harvest, produced high accuracy at pixel and regional scales with percent errors of −8.6% and −26% for the 2005 and 2006 seasons, respectively. In discriminating among crops at pixel and regional scale, the HANTS approach showed high accuracy. The errors for specific area estimates for wheat, barley and chickpea were 9.9%, −5.2% and 10.9% (for 2005) and −2.8%, −78% and 64% (for 2006), respectively. Area estimates of total winter crop, wheat, barley and chickpea resulted in coefficient of determination (R ²) values of 0.92, 0.89, 0.82 and 0.52, when contrasted against the actual shire-scale data. A significantly high coefficient of determination (0.87) was achieved for total winter crop area estimates in August across all shires for the 2006 season. Furthermore, the HANTS approach showed high accuracy in discriminating cropping area from non-cropping area and highlighted the need for accurate and up-to-date land use maps. The extrapolability of these approaches to determine total and specific winter crop area estimates, well before flowering, showed good utility across larger areas and seasons. Hence, it is envisaged that this technology might be transferable to different regions across Australia.