Consequences of Climate Policy for International Tourist Arrivals in Developing Countries

Abstract

One of the major implications of climate change for tourism destinations is the potential impact that mitigation policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the rapidly growing aviation sector could have on travel costs and tourist mobility. Such impact is particularly salient for long-haul destinations. Recently tourism organisations such as the unwto have also expressed concern that aviation sector-focused mitigation policies in wealthy nations that are the major international tourism outbound markets will negatively affect tourism development and wealth transfers to tourism-dependent developing nations. This article reviews emerging climate policies in major tourism outbound markets that have direct implications for the aviation sector and examines the potential consequences for travel costs and tourism demand in 10 tourism-dependent less developed island states with diverse geographic and tourism market characteristics. The analysis confirms that aviation mitigation policies would affect tourism demand to these nations. ‘Carbon smart’ tourism market restructuring approaches to reduce the emissions intensity of tourism, and market risk to climate policy changes anticipated over the next 10–20 years, are subsequently discussed.

Notes

The authors wish to thank João Vieira, Mikael Bergmasth, Robby Richardson, Frank Bruinsma and Bert van Wee for providing information essential to the writing of this article.

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19 João Vieira, EU Transport and Environment Directorate General, personal communication.

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28 Ibid.

29 Ibid.

30 Ibid.

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39 Brons et al, ‘Price elasticities of demand for air travel’.

40 Njegovan, ‘Elasticities of demand for leisure air travel’, p 34.

41 unwto, Compendium of Tourism Statistics, 2007, Madrid: unwto, 2007; and unwto, Yearbook of Tourism Statistics, 2007, Madrid: unwto, 2007. See also Appendix I.

42 unwto–unep–wmo, Climate Change and Tourism.

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56 Ibid, p 166.

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63 They include those presented by Gössling et al, ‘The eco-efficiency of tourism’; Becken, ‘Developing indicators for managing tourism in the face of peak oil’; and Becken & Simmons, ‘Using the concept of yield to assess the sustainability of different tourist types’.

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69 Boon et al, ‘Allocation of allowances for aviation in the EU ets’, p 42.