Violent conflicts and natural disasters: the growing case for cross-disciplinary dialogue

Abstract

Comparisons between disasters and violent conflicts are often noted by political figures and in the news media, and those responding to conflicts and disasters witness similarities on the ground. In contrast, the academic fields studying violent conflicts and so-called natural disasters have developed separately and practitioners usually separate the two phenomena as soon as the emergency response is over. This paper, based on interviews with practitioners and a review of scholarly literature, makes a case for increased cross-disciplinary dialogue. We identify common consequences, responses and even causes of conflicts and disasters. We argue that more and better partnerships between those who work on conflicts and those who work on disasters can lead to advances in understanding and responding to conflicts and disasters. 

Keywords:

• conflict
• disaster
• humanitarian
• climate change
• peace building
• disaster risk reduction

Acknowledgements

Many thanks for conversations, reading drafts and/or interviews to Allison Anderson, Dana Burde, Terry Cannon, Joel Charny, Sonali Deraniyagala, Gillian Dunn, Nadia Griffin, Ugo Guarnacci, Amy Hilleboe, Cassidy Johnson, Jacob Kurtzner, Sharon Morris, Andrea Paras, Kevin Phelan, Donal Reilly, Philippe Rosen, Rafael Velasquez, Christian Webersik and others. Semee Yoon provided excellent research assistance. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the ‘Dealing with Disasters’ conference in November 2010 in Newcastle, UK. We thank the Earth Institute at Columbia University’s Advanced Consortium on Cooperation, Conflict, and Complexity (ac4) for an award to help underwrite this research.

Notes

1. Cawthorne and Delva, “Quake Destruction ‘Like in a War’.”

2. Corty, “It Reminds Me of Images from a War Zone.”

3. Wax, “Like a Tsunami that won’t End.”

4. “Yemen hit by Tsunami of Protest.” Arab News, April 6, 2011, http://www.arabnews.com/node/373457.

5. Albala-Bertrand, “Complex Emergencies versus Natural Disasters” for instance, has argued that the difference between natural disasters and ‘complex humanitarian emergencies’ (meaning conflicts where ‘societal/institutional weakness…fails to accommodate competing identity groups’) lies largely in the degree of endogeneity, with complex emergencies fully endogenous and natural disasters only partly so.

6. A few interviews were conducted in 2011, with the majority taking place in 2012. Whenever possible the authors transcribed interviews verbatim. Note that all interviewees spoke in an individual rather than organisational capacity. All interviewees were given the opportunity to review an earlier draft of this paper.

7. We do not contend, of course, that all the consequences of conflicts and disasters are similar. The involvement of individuals as perpetrators of conflict, for instance, opens a range of additional consequences of conflict. Here, in making a case for cross-disciplinary dialogue, we highlight similarities.

8. Barnett and Weiss, “Humanitarianism”; Calhoun, “The Idea of Emergency”; and Orbinski, An Imperfect Offering.

9. Kaldor, New and Old Wars.

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11. Ghobarath et al., “Civil Wars Kill and Maim People.”

12. Antilla-Hughes and Hsiang, Destruction, Disinvestment, and Death.

13. Human Security Centre, Human Security Report; and cred, “2008 Disasters in Numbers.” We note the possibility of reporting biases. In the past fewer events were classified as disasters. Furthermore, there is no internationally agreed-upon definition of disaster and a wide variety of methods by which a disaster is declared within a country. cred uses 10 disaster deaths as a minimum figure but provides no guidance as to what causes should be included in disaster-related mortality.

14. Yonetaki, Global Estimates 2012.

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17. Humphreys and Richards, Prospects and Opportunities for Achieving the mdgs, 12.

18. Wisner et al., At Risk, 13.

19. Quoted in Gawronski and Olson, “Disasters as Crisis Triggers?”. While war has been described as ‘development in reverse’, some alternatively ‘do well out of war’, as do some in disasters, such as those in the construction and aid industries. The longer-term economic outcomes of disasters are difficult to decipher and quite variable, depending on a complex convolution between disaster type, economic makeup and status of the affected region, as well as the strength of institutions. Long-run benefits may return to economic growth as a result of the renewal of productive capital stocks and infrastructure during disaster recovery in much the same way as post-conflict growth can sometimes be stimulated. Collier, “Doing Well out of War”; and Mutter, “Perceiving the Social and Economic Consequences of Natural Disaster Shocks.”

20. Salama et al., “Lessons Learned.”

21. In Stevens, “The Public Effects of Disasters,” 815; and Ceyhan and Ceyhan, “Earthquake Survivors’ Quality of Life.”

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24. Klein, Sexual Violence in Disasters.

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26. Orbinski, An Imperfect Offering.

27. Woodward, “Economic Priorities,” 189–190. See also Duffield, Global Governance and the New Wars.

28. This recognition contrasts with the ‘minimalist’ humanitarian approach in which all humanitarian work is considered to be apolitical. Weiss, “Principles, Politics, and Humanitarian Action.”

29. See Anderson, Do No Harm.

30. Qureshi and Bamforth, “Political Complexities of Humanitarian Intervention.”

31. Raleigh, “Political Marginalization, Climate Change, and Conflict”; and De Silva, “Ethnicity, Politics and Inequality.”

32. Phelan, “From an Idea to Action,” 12.

33. See also Stokes, “Drowning Humanitarian Aid.”

34. Dayton-Johnson, Natural Disasters and Adaptive Capacity, 6; Cutter, Hazards, Vulnerability and Environmental Justice; Klein et al., “Resilience to Natural Hazards”; and Buhaug et al., “Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict,” 11.

35. irc, internal document, New York, nd.

36. Ibid.

37. See World Bank, World Development Report 2011, 103.

38. Boutros-Ghali, An Agenda for Peace.

39. Calhoun, “The Idea of Emergency,” 52.

40. See also Duffield, “Complex Emergencies.”

41. While we focus on these two factors as illustrations, they do not represent the entire range of overlap. The politics of famine is well documented and highlights the ways in which famine is not attributed to ‘natural’ causes, but reflects political failings by governments, donors and international relief agencies. De Waal, Famine Crimes.

42. Brown, Ethnic Conflict and International Security.

43. Collier et al., Breaking the Conflict Trap, 5.

44. Jackson, “The State and Internal Conflict.”

45. Stewart, “Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict.”

46. Collier et al., Breaking the Conflict Trap.

47. World Bank, World Development Report 2011, 103.

48. Wisner et al., At Risk.

49. Brainard et al., Climate Change and Global Poverty.

50. Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace, “The 2010 Failed States Index.”

51. Wisner et al., At Risk; Cutter and Finch, “Temporal and Spatial Changes,” 2303–2305; Cutter, Hazards, Vulnerability and Environmental Justice; Pelling, The Vulnerability of Cities; and Peluso and Watts, Violent Environments.

52. Burd-Sharps et al., The Measure of America.

53. Snyder, “It didn’t Begin with Katrina.”

54. See Schubert et al., Climate Change as a Security Risk, 25–30.

55. unep, “Sudan Post-conflict Environmental Assessment.”

56. See Flint and De Waal, A Short History of a Long War; Brown and McLeman, “A Recurring Anarchy?”; Buhaug et al., “Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict”; O’Brien et al., Disaster Risk Reduction, 25; and Salehyan, “From Climate Change to Conflict?,” 316–319.

57. Homer-Dixon, Environment, Scarcity and Violence; and Collier, The Bottom Billion.

58. Harris et al., When Disasters and Conflicts Collide.

59. Parry et al., “Climate Change 2007”; Burke et al., “Warming Increases Risk of Civil War”; Raleigh, “Political Marginalization”; and Salehyan, “From Climate Change to Conflict?”

60. Ironically the temperate zones where the greatest quantity of emissions originates may be relatively robust to temperature increases.

61. Field et al., Managing the Risks of Extreme Events.

62. Dell et al., Climate Change and Economic Growth; Jones and Olken, Climate Shocks and Exports; and Hsiang, “Temperatures and Cyclones Strongly Associated with Economic Production.”

63. Steinbruner et al., Climate and Social Stress.

64. Hsiang et al., “Civil Conflicts.”

65. The effect that climate change will have on the prevalence of el Niño conditions is not well understood, although it is certainly conceivable that a warmer atmosphere will promote el Niño conditions more commonly.

66. See Burke et al., “Warming Increases Risk of Civil War”; Miguel et al., “Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict”; and Sandholt-Jensen et al., “Rain, Growth and Civil War.”

67. Clark et al., “What is Food Security?”, 78.

68. See also several discussion papers on the International Institute for Sustainable Development’s website, http://www.iisd.org/ecp/es/climate/.

69. Lacina and Gleditsch, “Monitoring Trends in Global Combat.”

70. Wisner et al., At Risk, 27–28.

71. Brancati, “Political Aftershocks”; Nel and Righarts, “Natural Disasters”; and Omelicheva, “Natural Disasters.”

72. Nel and Righarts, “Natural Disasters.”

73. Gawronski and Olsen, “Disasters as Crisis Triggers?”

74. Beardsley and McQuinn, “Rebel Groups as Predatory Organizations.”

75. Buhaug et al., “Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict”; Reuveny, “Ecomigration and Violent Conflict”; and Stern, The Economics of Climate Change.

76. Slettebak and de Soysa “High Temps, High Tempers?”; and Slettebak, “Don’t Blame the Weather!”

77. Bergholt and Lujala, “Climate Related Natural Disasters”; and Bernauer et al., “Climate Variability.”

78. Ciccone, “Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict”, strongly questions the analysis of Miguel et al., “Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict.”

79. Gleditsch, “Whither the Weather?”

80. Harris et al., When Disasters and Conflicts Collide.

81. UK Department for International Development, quoted in irc, internal document.

82. Reychler, “Proactive Conflict Prevention.”