The war on terror in context: domestic dimensions of Ethiopia and Kenya’s policies towards Somalia

Abstract

What explains variations in how African countries respond to security threats? How can we explain situations in which countries face a similar regional threat environment and yet respond very differently? In this article we take advantage of a natural experiment offered by instability in Somalia, which has given rise to terrorist threats to neighbours Ethiopia and Kenya. Analysing Ethiopian and Kenyan responses to instability coming from Somalia since 2000 shows that these countries differ in both the nature and timing of their responses to a common set of Somali challenges. The key to understanding their varied responses, we argue, lies not in the objective threat itself, but in how the threat affects the political calculations of the state. These calculations are shaped by fundamental political and economic dynamics such as the presence or absence of a founding myth, the ways that elites access and maintain their hold on power, and the political economy underpinning the state.

Keywords:

• Ethiopia
• Kenya
• counterterrorism
• terrorism and political violence
• African security

Acknowledgements

All opinions are the authors’ own. Vicky-Marie Addo-Ashong (Pomona College), Bronwyn Elizabeth Beatty (Scripps College) and Jason Altwies (Naval Postgraduate School) all provided valuable research assistance. Special thanks to Jessie Evans, Maggie Fick, Terrence Lyons, Ken Opalo and Lahra Smith for generously helping with our research trips. This paper benefitted from participation in the Security Force Assistance in Africa Workshop (Accra, Ghana, September 2019), organised by the Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) and the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Center (KAIPTC). The authors thank Maggie Dwyer, Kjetil Enstad, Osman Gbla, Nicholas Marsh, William Reno, Øystein H. Rolandsen, Usman Tar and Nina Wilén for their thoughtful feedback on an early draft.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 The research was judged not to be human subjects research by the institutional review boards at the institutions of both authors.

2 We use the terms Islamist and jihadist violence interchangeably in this article to refer to the violent actions of groups like al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda or al-Itihad.

3 Source: AMISOM (2019) ‘New Force Commander Takes over at the Helm of AMISOM Military’, AMISOM News, January 1, 2019, accessed February 9, 2022, http://amisom-au.org/2019/01/new-force-commander-takes-over-at-the-helm-of-amisom-military/.

4 The internationally backed Somali regimes have been the Transitional National Government (TNG, 2000–2004), the TFG (2004–2012) and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS, since 2012).

5 This was the Security Laws (Amendment) Act of 2014. In January 2015, the Kenyan Supreme Court struck down eight provisions of this act as unconstitutional (DoS 2015, 27).

6 Source: www.britannica.com/place/Ethiopia/ethnic-groups-and-languages (accessed July 26, 2021).

7 For demographic estimates of Kenya’s Somalis, see http://www.kenya-information-guide.com/somali-tribe.html, based on the 2009 census, and https://www.africa.upenn.edu/NEH/kethnic.htm.

8 Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.TAX.YPKG.RV.ZS?locations=ET-KE.

9 Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.RCPT.CD?locations=KE.

10 Multiple interviewees noted this, as does every single issue of the Country Reports on Terrorism.

11 Source: https://maps.lib.utexas.edu/maps/africa/horn_ethnic_80.jpg (accessed March 14, 2022).

Additional information

Funding

The authors thank the Minerva Research Initiative (Office of the Secretary of Defense) for supporting the work of this project through the University Grants programme (award number W911NF).

Notes on contributors

Jessica Piombo

Jessica Piombo is an Associate Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), where she researches and teaches about African security, ethnic politics, political transitions and post-conflict governance, and US security engagements in Africa. She is the author/editor of four books and over 30 journal articles, book chapters, technical reports, and short-form articles. She is also a member of the Governing Council of the International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association and a Board Member of the World Affairs Council of the Monterey Bay Area.

Pierre Englebert

Pierre Englebert is the H. Russell Smith Professor of International Relations and professor of politics at Pomona College, where he also heads the African Politics Lab. He is the author of Inside African Politics (2019, with Kevin Dunn), Africa: Unity, Sovereignty and Sorrow (2009), and about 80 other books, articles, chapters, policy reports and opinion pieces. He is a four-time recipient of the Wig Distinguished Professor Award for Excellence in Teaching at Pomona College. He also composes and records music under the name Not a Moment too Soon.