Climate Change Mitigation and Transport in Developing Nations

Abstract

Emissions from the transport sector represent the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions. There is little prospect that this situation will be resolved with a single technological fix. As developing nations quickly move to catch up with the motorization levels of developed nations, the sheer number of private vehicles may overwhelm any advances made by cleaner fuels. By 2030, there is projected to be more vehicles in the developing world than in developed nations. Despite the growth in developing‐nation transport emissions, the sector has produced relatively few mitigation projects within the mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol. However, a few developing cities, such as Bogota, Colombia, have demonstrated innovation in low‐cost solutions to reducing emissions. This research employs scenario analysis to examine the size and cost of potential emission reduction options from the urban transport sector of developing nations. In particular, the analysis compares the cost of greenhouse gas emission reductions from fuel technology options to reductions from measures promoting mode shifting. This comparative analysis indicates that a diversified package of measures with an emphasis on mode shifting is likely to be the most cost‐effective means to greenhouse gas emission reductions.

Notes

1. ‘Passenger vehicles’ include cars, motorcycles, three‐wheelers, mini‐buses and buses. This value does not include freight vehicles, train carriages, water transport or air transport.

2. This value is based upon vehicles in Western Europe. It is slightly less in North America, where life‐time km travelled per vehicle are higher (Gilbert, 2000).

3. The scenario assumes that 60 new passengers switch from other modes to an articulated bus with a passenger capacity of 120. The previous modes used by the new passengers are as follows: private car (n = 5), taxi (5), paratransit (10), small diesel bus (10), three‐wheeler (5), two‐wheeler (10), bicycle (5) and pedestrian (10).

4. A vehicle is assumed to travel 750 000 km over a 10‐year life. The baseline emission factor for a EURO II diesel bus is assumed to be 2.87 kg of CO₂/litre of fuel.

5. For more information on the GTZ Sourcebook, see http://www.sutp.org

6. However, the 7‐year option does offer the possibility of two subsequent renewals for a total of 21 years.