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Abstract
Ageing of the population, urban sprawl and car dependency will change travel patterns. The main objective of this paper is to give elements for a better understanding of the impact of changing demographics on the long‐term evolution of daily mobility using demographic‐based models to forecast, for the elderly population, car‐ownership, trip frequency, distance travelled, average trip distance. A second objective is to measure the impact of the long‐term tendencies observed on the appearance of new needs of travel demand such as a rapid increase of demand‐responsive transport. The paper compares two agglomerations, both in a strong ageing process, but in cultural contexts: a large European metropolis, Paris; and a medium sized North‐American city, Montreal. Many common conclusions derived from the two different cases studies reinforce the possibility of generalizing the conclusions to other situations.
Acknowledgements
This research was funded by the French Ministry of Transport under the PREDIT framework program and the ECOS‐NORD cooperation program. The authors also acknowledge the valuable comments of three anonymous reviewers.