Who Made Peak Car, and How? A Breakdown of Trends over Four Decades in Four Countries

Abstract

This paper investigates the contribution of underlying trends to per-capita car travel development since the 1970s in France, Germany, Great Britain, and the USA. In these countries, after a long period of growth, car travel began to show signs of stagnation — or even decrease — after the 1990s. Our paper breaks down underlying demographic and travel trends for two study periods: first, a period of per-capita car travel growth (until the mid-1990s); second, a period of stagnation or decrease in car travel (beginning around the turn of the millennium). Two patterns of development emerge: (1) in France and the USA, the reversal in the trend in car travel per capita was due mainly to trend changes in total travel demand by drivers; (2) in Germany and Great Britain, the levelling off of motorisation, and shifts to other modes, played a much larger role. Ageing has in recent years gained weight in shaping per-capita car travel trends. In Europe, the continued increase of car availability for seniors has had a damping effect on peak car. Even though all age classes have contributed to peak car, young adults stand out in this regard and therefore deserve special attention.

Keywords:

• peak car
• trend decomposition
• motorisation trends
• cohort effects
• demography

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to J. Armoogum (IFSTTAR) and R. Buehler (Virginia Tech) for contributing data which we used in this paper.