Focusing events, policy dictators and the dynamics of reform

Abstract

Following the seminal work of Baumgartner and Jones, the punctuated equilibrium approach has won wide popularity. A series of studies have documented how policy areas are characterised by long periods of stability, which are disrupted from time to time by dramatic attention shifts leading to policy changes. The approach has so far overwhelmingly been applied in a US setting, while studies of punctuations in parliamentary systems are lacking. The paper presents a theoretical framework and empirical test that integrates the punctuated equilibrium approach with the work on pivotal parties as policy dictators. A policy dictator can veto reforms even following a focusing event that dramatically alters the policy image in an area. If the policy dictator is averse to the new policy image, all reform initiatives will be blocked; if the policy dictator is non-averse, reform initiatives will be allowed. The framework can help explain why dramatic attention shifts do not always lead to policy changes, but are mediated by the strength and policy position of the pivotal party.

Keywords:

• focusing events
• policy dictators and the dynamics of reform

Notes

1. There is traditionally some dispute regarding whether the Conservatives or the Liberals is the most centre-oriented party of the two. Goul Andersen (2003a) shows, however, that in the 2001 election the Liberals held this position. Moreover, since the Conservatives traditionally hold a much more right-wing policy position in the elementary school area than the Liberals, the former often did not participate in new legislation in the area while the latter did.

2. This is not to say that other parties have not represented the teachers as well. The Socialist People's Party in particular has since the 1980s been a strong advocate of the teachers (Laursen 2005), but given the party's marginal position on the left wing in parliament this paper focuses on the Social Liberals.

3. All legislative texts can be located via www.retsinfo.dk