Quantitative analysis of policies for governance of emergent dynamics in complex construction projects

Abstract

The complexity trend of construction projects is increasing, not only technologically but on several other fronts, such as the institutional diversity of the actors and the coupling of their interactions. As a result of this increase in complexity, projects frequently face the dynamics attributed to emerging actors, coalitions, contextual properties, or synergies. Reflecting this trend within the project governance framework provides a better understanding of the emergent risks that arise in the form of conflicts, project renegotiations, extreme modifications, or write-offs from projects. The aim of this study is to propose interactional analysis (IA) as a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodology to analyse and govern the emergent risks associated with the interactions in a system of systems (SoS), such as complex construction projects. Therefore, interactions are framed as the coupling of actors, and their associated emergent dynamics are quantified based on the equilibria of the interaction. Risk mitigation policies are then developed and analysed based on the associated interactional elements and mathematical functions. Policymakers can apply the methodology to develop policies and gauge their effectiveness in governance of the emergent dynamics within interactional contexts to overcome the challenges associated with infrastructure development.

Keywords:

• Complex systems
• infrastructure management
• quantitative analysis
• power
• risk.