Monte Carlo simulation of construction costs using subjective data: response

Abstract

This communication is a response to the insightful note by Fellows on previous papers by the author. Not only has Fellows supplemented Chau's major arguments, he has also expanded the scope of discussion and raised new issues. While the author agrees with most of the points made by Fellows, there are concepts and arguments that need to be clarified. This note is a response to certain issues raised by Fellows. It also clarifies certain concepts and gives alternative viewpoints. Most of these viewpoints complement rather than contradict those given by Fellows. It is hoped that this note will arouse readers' interest in the subject as well as contribute to the academic debate of the issue. The sequence of the discussion follows that in Fellows' note.

Keywords:

• Construction Cost Distribution
• Monte Carlo Simulation
• Probabilistic Cost Estimate