The Spiral of Silence and Conflict Avoidance: Examining Antecedents of Opinion Expression Concerning the U.S. Military Buildup in the Pacific Island of Guam

Abstract

The present study examines the role of local news media in influencing perceived public support for a controversial political issue, and merges a key proposition of the spiral of silence theory with literature on conflict avoidance to analyze antecedents of political outspokenness among a representative sample of registered voters in the Western Pacific Island of Guam. Respondents were asked about their perceptions of local news media and public support for, and willingness to express opinions about, the relocation of roughly 8,600 U.S. Marines and about 10,000 of their dependents and civilian support from Okinawa, Japan to Guam. Results show that perceived support from local news media predicted perceived public support. Perceived public support for one's opinions positively predicted, and conflict avoidance negatively predicted, willingness to express opinions. The positive association between perceived public support for one's opinions and willingness to express opinions was stronger among those who had higher conflict avoidance than those who had lower conflict avoidance.

Keywords:

• Conflict Avoidance
• Guam
• Intercultural Communication
• Political Communication
• Spiral of Silence

Notes

^a This item is an adaptation of the hypothetical “train” and “bus” scenario question used in previous spiral of silence studies. There are no trains on Guam, and because public transportation is minimal, particularly by bus, respondents may not have been able to provide appropriate answers if they were asked the question of whether they would be willing to join a conversation among strangers they were riding with in a public mode of transportation. It is far more common for Guam's residents to frequent public restaurants. Therefore, the restaurant setting is more appropriate and culturally relevant.

By definition, an unincorporated American territory is “a United States insular area in which the United States Congress has determined that only selected parts of the United States Constitution apply” (U.S. Department of the Interior, Office of Insular Affairs, 2008). There are currently thirteen U.S. unincorporated territories: three in the Caribbean (Navassa Island, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands) and ten in the Pacific (American Samoa, Baker Island, Guam, Howland Island, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Kingman Reef, Midway Atoll, the Northern Marianas Islands, Wake Atoll).

The author thanks Dr. Don A. Dillman for the advice he provided on how to best implement a mail survey on Guam. Dillman is familiar with the cultural dynamics on Guam and has been to the island to serve as a research consultant.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Francis S. Dalisay

Francis S. Dalisay (Ph. D., Washington State University, 2010) is an associate lecturer in the School of Communication at Cleveland State University.