The Impact of 9/11 on the Noncitizen Welfare Caseload: A Time-Series Analysis

ABSTRACT

The tragedy of 9/11 had more far-reaching social and economic consequences for the nation than those found for many individuals on that day. Between October 2001 and May 2002, Nevada witnessed a 25% increase in the total number of households on the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, commonly referred to as welfare. During the same time, households headed by a noncitizen increased their participation in the TANF program by 40%. This study examines the differential impact of 9/11, as well as of the economy and other external developments, on noncitizen and citizen welfare caseloads in a single state. Two monthly time series models are specified that explain and compare trends in the noncitizen and citizen welfare caseloads from April 1998 to June 2002. The findings suggest that, all else constant, 9/11 had a differential impact on the noncitizen and the citizen caseloads. All else constant, 9/11 events increased the noncitizen welfare caseload whereas a similar impact for the citizen caseload was not found. The findings also strongly suggest that the business cycle shapes noncitizens' participation in public assistance programs more closely than citizens' participation. Future research should investigate the extent to which 9/11 affected the behaviors of families on welfare over the long run.

KEYWORDS:

• Impact of 9/11 and welfare
• TANF noncitizens
• TANF citizen caseload
• time-series
• economy and welfare

Notes

∗p < 0.05.

∗∗ p < 0.01.

^a The mean number of cases simulated taking out the effect of 9/11 itself and using the historical unemployment that includes the effect of 9/11 on unemployment.