A test of the projection accuracy of the status group dynamics approach to recreation demand∗

This research was funded by a Rackham Faculty Grant, University of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studies.

Abstract

This paper tests the accuracy of outdoor recreation demand projections made from 1970–1975 data to 1980, using the status group dynamics approach to recreation demand analysis. In most cases, the projections accurately predicted the direction of participation rate trends. For the most part, projections based on the status group dynamics approach were more accurate than projections based on other standard prediction methods (straight line projection of participation rate trends and the assumption of stable participation rates). Analysis of the systematic projection errors suggested a variety of ways in which the assumptions and hypotheses in the prediction model might be refined to improve predictions for use in recreation resource planning, management, and policy analysis.

Key Words:

• recreation demand
• demand prediction
• status group dynamics
• status‐based diffusion
• participation rates
• recreation planning

Notes

This research was funded by a Rackham Faculty Grant, University of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studies.