Storm Surge Forecasting for the Arabian Sea

Abstract

The results of the location specific IIT storm surge model reported in this study are in good agreement with the available actual peak surge observations. It was found that cyclones landfalling from the southwest direction generated larger surges than cyclones landfalling perpendicular or from the southeast. Moreover, a perpendicularly landfalling cyclone creates maximum surges at the eastern parts of the coastal region as compared to the other parts. It was verified that the storm surge is very sensitive to basin depths. The shallowness of the water in coastal areas may considerably magnify the surge heights in the region. The model has the ability to investigate multiple forecast scenarios in real time and can update cyclone tracks as the cyclonic storm approaches the coast and meteorological forecasts become more accurate. In comparison to the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea in general and Pakistani coasts in particular are less vulnerable to tropical storms, geographically and bathymetrically. Ocean basins in the north Arabian Sea near Pakistan have depths more than 20 m, which helps to avoid huge storm surges.

Keywords:

• Storm surge
• Arabian sea
• Pakistan
• Karachi
• Pakistan Meteorological Department
• Zubair Siddiqui

Acknowledgements

The author is very thankful to Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Director General of Pakistan Meteorological Department, for his support. Also, many thanks for the generous guidance of Prof. Shishir. K. Dube of the IIT Kharagpur.