Foreign policy decision making in Iran and the nuclear program

ABSTRACT

This article analyzes how foreign policy is made in the Islamic Republic of Iran. To do so, it analyzes the role of various state institutions, factions, and individuals in the formulation and conduct of foreign policy. Actual powers of various institutions in Iran have evolved greatly since 1979. The history and causes of such institutional changes are discussed briefly. Iran is not a one-man dictatorship. Rather, it is ruled by an oligarchy comprised of fundamentalist Shia clerics and lay fundamentalists. The ruling elite is composed of competing factions such as hard-liners, expedients, and reformists, as well as sub-factions such as pragmatic hard-liners and ultra-hard-liners. The oligarchy is deeply divided on many issues, including on foreign policy. This article presents, in great detail, the views and policy proposals of the top members of the oligarchy regarding Iran's nuclear program, relations with the U.S., and Iran's regional policies. Finally, this article applies the findings of this research to the case of Iran's nuclear program. Evidence shows that Iran has had a clandestine nuclear weapons program. This article analyzes the ruling oligarchy's responses to the global reaction to Iran's nuclear program.

Acknowledgments

I thank Valerie M. Hudson and Klaus Brummer for their suggestions and critiques of earlier versions of this article. This article owes a great deal to their theoretical and analytical guidance. I also thank Kevjn Lim for his suggestions. I am solely responsible for any errors of fact or interpretation.

Notes on contributor

Masoud Kazemzadeh ([email protected]) is associate professor of political science at Sam Houston State University. He received his BA in international relations from the University of Minnesota, and his MA and PhD in political science from the University of Southern California. He was a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University's Center for Middle Eastern Studies. His articles include: "Hassan Rouhani's Election and its Consequences for American Foreign Policy," American Foreign Policy Interests (2014); "Ayatollah Khamenei's Foreign Policy Orientation," Comparative Strategy (2013); "U.S.-Iran Confrontation: Domestic Asymmetrical Ramifications," Terrorism Law Report (2012); "U.S.-Iran Confrontation in the Post-NIE World: An Analysis of Alternative Policy Options," Comparative Strategy (2009); "Intra-Elite Factionalism and the 2004 Majles Elections in Iran," Middle Eastern Studies (2008); "Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy," Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East (2007); and "Teaching the Politics of Islamic Fundamentalism," PS: Political Science and Politics (1998).

Notes

1. Valerie M. Hudson, “Foreign Policy Analysis: Actor-Specific Theory and the Ground of International Relations,” Foreign Policy Analysis, vol.1 (2005): 1–30; Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2007); Hudson, “The History and Evolution of Foreign Policy Analysis,” in Steve Smith, Amelia Hadfield, and Tim Dunne, eds., Foreign Policy: Theories, Actors, Cases, 2nd ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012), 13–34; and Chris Alden and Amnon Aran, Foreign Policy Analysis: New Approaches (London: Routledge, 2012).

2. Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis, 6.

3. Walter Carlsnaes, “Actors, Structures, and Foreign Policy Analysis,” in Smith et al., eds., Foreign Policy: Theories, Actors, Cases, 113–129.

4. For excellent discussions on the limits of the FPA theory and how to overcome some of these limitations, see Valerie Hudson, “Introduction to Foreign Policy Analysis Beyond North America” and Klaus Brummer, “Implications from FPA Scholarship Beyond North America for Mainstream FPA Theory,” both in Valerie Hudson and Klaus Brummer, eds., Foreign Policy Analysis Beyond North America (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2015).

5. Ole R. Holsti, “Models of International Relations and Foreign Policy,” in G. John Ikenberry, ed., American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays, 5th ed. (New York: Pearson Longman, 2005), 14–40.

6. Ibid., 16.

7. William C. Wohlforth, “Realism and Foreign Policy,” in Steve Smith et al., eds., Foreign Policy, 37, 52.

8. I owe this argument to Valerie Hudson's comment on an earlier version of this article.

9. Tim Dunne, “Liberalism,” in John Baylis, Steve Smith, and Patricia Owens, eds., The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations, 6th ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014), 114.

10. G. John Ikenberry, “America's Liberal Grand Strategy,” in Ikenberry, ed., American Foreign Policy, 268–290.

11. Jeffrey Haynes, An Introduction to International Relations and Religion, 2nd ed. (London: Routledge, 2013); Peter Mandaville, “Islam and International Relations in the Middle East: From Umma to Nation State,” in Louise Fawcett, ed., International Relations of the Middle East, 3rd ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), 167–184; Carolyn M. Warner and Stephen G. Walker, “Thinking About the Role of Religion in Foreign Policy: A Framework for Analysis,” Foreign Policy Analysis, vol. 7 (2011): 113–135.

12. Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis, 186.

13. Masoud Kazemzadeh, “Teaching the Politics of Islamic Fundamentalism,” PS: Political Science and Politics, vol. 31 (1998): 52–59.

14. Ahmad Nizar Hamzeh, In the Path of Hizbullah (Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 2004), 32–36.

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17. I owe this argument to Valerie Hudson's comment on an earlier version of this article.

18. Holsti, 16.

19. Rouholamin Saeedi, “Enghelabiyn Farsoodeh Va Toteeh Jam Zahr” (Dilapidated Revolutionaries and the Conspiracy of Chalice of Poison), Kayhan, December 8, 2012, available at http://www.kayhannews.ir/910918/8.htm#other601 (accessed December 10, 2012), my translation.

20. Kazemzadeh, “Ayatollah Khamenei's Foreign Policy.”

21. Kamrava, “Iranian National-Security Debates”; and Maleki, Decision Making.

22. Hussein Bastani, “Afsaneh va Vaghiyat Dar Mored ‘Mard Posht Pardeh’ Dowlat Ahmadinejad” (Myth and Reality on the ‘Man Behind the Scenes’ of Ahmadinejad's Government), BBC, September 16, 2012, available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2012/09/120916_l39_analysis_khamenei_mashaei_ahmadinejad.shtml (accessed September 18, 2012); Kasra Naji, Ahmadinejad: The Secret History of Iran's Radical Leader (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2008).

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25. Bahmani, ibid.

26. Maleki, Decision Making.

27. Bahmani, “Gamaneh-zani”; BBC Persian, “Rouhani”; and Iran Emrooz, “Mokhalefat.”

28. Rafsanjani, “Mosahebeh ba Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani.”

29. Kamrava, “Iranian National-Security Debates.”

30. Rafsanjani, “Mosahebeh ba Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani”; Rafsanjani, “Mosahebeh Ba Arman” (Interview with Arman Newspaper), October 7, 2012, available at http://www.hashemirafsanjani.ir/fa/print/206158 (accessed October 7, 2012).

31. Hassan Rouhani, “Mosahebeh” (Interview), Baztab, July 22, 2006, available at http://www.baztab.ir/news/43515.php (accessed July 24, 2006).

32. Masoud Kazemzadeh, “Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy,” Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, vol. 27 (2007): 423–449; Masoud Kazemzadeh, “Intra-Elite Factionalism and the 2004 Majles Elections in Iran,” Middle Eastern Studies, vol. 44 (2008): 189–214.

33. Masoud Kazemzadeh, “Ayatollah Khamenei's Foreign Policy Orientation,” Comparative Strategy, vol. 32 (2013): 443–458.

34. Kazemzadeh, “Intra-Elite Factionalism.”

35. Mohsen M. Milani, “Iran's Active Neutrality During the Kuwaiti Crisis: Reasons and Ramifications,” New Political Science, vols. 21–22 (1992): 41–60.

36. Mohsen Aminzadeh, “Kalbod-Shekafi 8 Sal Siasat Khareji Khatami” (Dissection of the Eight Years of Khatami's Foreign Policy), Interview with Zhila Bani Yaaghub, part 1, Gooya, August 10, 2005, available at http://news. gooya.com/columnists/archives/034506.php (accessed July 28, 2012); Aminzadeh, “Kalbod-Shekafi 8 Sal Siasat Khareji Khatami” (Dissection of the Eight Years of Khatami's Foreign Policy), Interview with Zhila Bani Yaaghub, part 2, Gooya, August 10, 2005, available at http://news.gooya.com/columnists/archives/034507.php (accessed July 28, 2012); Aminzadeh, “Siasat Hastehee Iran Va Peyamadhay Aan” (Iran's Nuclear Policy and Its Consequences), Gooya, March 7, 2006, available at http://mag.gooya.com/politics/archives/2006/03/045138print.php (accessed July 28, 2012); Aminzadeh, “Siasat Khareji Iran, Enteghal Az Charchoob Fekri Eslahat Beh Rahyaft Mohajem Va Tondro” (Iran's Foreign Policy, Transition from the Framework of Reformist Thought to Offensive/Aggressive and Extremist Policy), Gooya, April 2, 2006, available at http://mag.gooya.com/politics/archives/2006/04/046129print.php (accessed July 28, 2012); Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, “Factional Positions on the Nuclear Issue in the Context of Iranian Domestic Politics,” Iran Analysis Quarterly, vol. 3 (2006): 2–10; and Mohammad Reza Khatami, “Interview,” ILNA, 2006, available at http://www.ilna.ir/print.asp?code=306058 (accessed September 15, 2007).

37. Jalil Roshandel, “Iran's Foreign and Security Policies: How the Decisionmaking Process Evolved,” Security Dialogue, vol. 31 (200): 105–117.

38. Kaveh Afrasiabi and Abbas Maleki, “Iran's Foreign Policy After 11 September,” Brown Journal of World Affairs, vol. 9 (2003): 255–265; Kamrava, “Iranian National-Security Debates”; Kazemzadeh, “Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy”; Ali Khamenei, “Supreme Leader's Speech to Government Officials,” July 24, 2012, available at http://english. khamenei.ir//index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1655&Itemid=4 (accessed July 29, 2012); and YouTube, “Monazereh Shariatmadari va Asgharzadeh” (Debate between Shariatmadari and Asgharzadeh), November 2, 2012, available at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vd0oWeZT94& (accessed November 4, 2012).

39. Mehdi Perpinchi, “Cheragh Sabz Eslah-talabha Dar Vaziyat Ghermez Hastehee” (Green Light of the Reformists Under the Red Nuclear Condition), BBC, July 18, 2012, available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/ iran/2012/07/120718_ll_iran_politics.shtml (accessed July 19, 2012).

40. Perpinchi, ibid.; Rouholamin Saeedi, “Enghelabiyn Farsoodeh.

41. YouTube, Debate between Shariatmadari and Asgharzadeh.

42. Gary Samore, The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Definitive Guide (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, 2015), available at http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/25599/iran_nuclear_deal.html?breadcrumb=%2Fproject%2F77%2 Firan_project (accessed March 27, 2016).

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44. Kamrava, “Iranian National-Security Debates”; Kazemzadeh, “Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy”; Khalaji, Apocalyptic Politics; Khamenei, “Supreme Leader's Speech”; Karim Sadjadpour, Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran's Most Powerful Leader, (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2008); Saeedi, “Enghelabiyn.”

45. Golnaz Esfandiari, “Zionists Waiting to Kill Hidden Imam, Says Iranian Cleric,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 1, 2010, available at http://www.rferl.org/content/Zionists_Waiting_To_Kill_Hidden_Imam_Says_Iranian _Cleric/2145806.html (accessed November 10, 2010); Khalaji, Apocalyptic Politics; Tabnak, “Ahmadinejad: Sanad Darim America Mikhahad Joloyeh Zohour Imam Zaman Ra Begirad” (Ahmadinejad: We Have Document on the U.S. Wanting to Prevent the Appearance of the 12th Imam), December 4, 2009, available at http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/pages/?cid=75711 (accessed December 5, 2010); YouTube, “CIA and MI6 Torture to Get Information on the Hidden Imam Zamaan In Iraq,” program produced by the Iranian state television, March 18, 2011, available at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkWT0fcSfg8 (accessed March 20, 2011).

46. ISNA, “Saeedi: Sepah Yaki Az Abzarhay Zamineh Saz Zohor Imam Zaman (Aj) Ast” (Saeedi: The IRGC is One of the Instruments for the Creation of Conditions for the Appearance of the 12th Imam), July 27, 2012, available at http://isna.ir/fa/news/91050603505 (accessed July 27, 2012).

47. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, “U.S. Worried About Emam Zaman,” Iranian, 2008, available at http://www.iranian. com/main/singlepage/2008/u-s-worried-about-emam-zaman (accessed June 1, 2008); Kazemzadeh, “Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy”; Khalaji, Apocalyptic Politics.

48. BBC, “Iran Press Divided Over Geneva Deal,” January 20, 2014, available at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25809977 (accessed November 30, 2014).

49. For an excellent study, see Kevjn Lim, “National Security Decision-Making in Iran,” Comparative Strategy, vol. 34 (2015): 149–168. Also see Shahram Chubin, “The Politics of Iran's Nuclear Program,” The Iran Primer (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace, 2010) available at https://www.wilsoncenter.org/ sites/default/files/The%20Politics%20of%20Iran%2527s%20Nuclear%20Program.pdf (accessed September 25, 2016).

50. Michael R. Gordon, “Iran's Master of Iraq Chaos Still Vexes U.S.,” The New York Times, October 2 2012.

51. Shahram Chubin, “Command and Control in a Nuclear-Armed Iran,” Proliferation Papers, no. 45 (January–February 2013): 24.

52. “Sardar Soleymani: Tahrimha Daha Barabar Ham Shavad, Iran Hemayatash Az Felestin Ra Ghat'a Nemikonad” (Gen. Soleymani: Even if the Sanctions Are Multiplied by Factors of Tens, Iran Will Not Stop Its Support for Palestine), Fars News, March 17, 2016, available at http://www.farsnews.com/13941227000240 (accessed March 28, 2016).

53. Thomas Erdbrink, “Iran Tests More Missiles in Message to Israel and Biden,” The New York Times, March 9, 2016.

54. AFP, “Iran Reveals Huge Underground Missile Base with Broadcast on State TV,” The Guardian, October 15, 2015.

55. Jamie Crawford, “Close Encounter between U.S. Warship and Iranian Rocket,” CNN, January 9, 2016, available at http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/29/politics/iran-missile-test-uss-harry-truman-aircraft-carrier/ (accessed April 6, 2016).

56. David Larter, “U.S. Navy Rebukes Iran after Propaganda Video Shows Sailor Crying,” Navy Times, February 10, 2016, available at http://www.navytimes.com/story/military/2016/02/10/iran-images-riverine-crying-strong-condemnation-navy/80186322/ (accessed April 6, 2016).

57. Dan Lamothe, “Iranian Weapons Keep Getting Smuggled at Sea: Stopping Them Isn't Easy for the Navy,” The Washington Post, April 5, 2016.

58. Rick Gladstone, “Iran Executions at Highest Level Since ‘89,” The New York Times, March 10, 2016.

59. Ray Takeyh, “Introduction: What Do We Know?” in Robert D. Blackwill, ed., Iran: The Nuclear Challenge (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2012), 1.

60. Chubin, “The Politics of Iran's Nuclear Program.”

61. IAEA, Report by the Director General, Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran, November 8, 2011, available at http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2011/gov2011-65.pdf (accessed December 20, 2011), 8.

62. Takeyh, “Introduction,” 2.

63. Haghighatjoo, “Factional Positions,” 4, 8.

64. R. Jeffrey Smith and Joby Warrick, “Pakistan Scientist Khan Describes Iranian Efforts to Buy Nuclear Bombs,” The Washington Post, March 14, 2010.

65. Kazemzadeh, “Hassan Rouhani's Election.”

66. IAEA, Report by the Director General, Annex 1.

67. IAEA, ibid.

68. Aminzadeh, “Dissection”; Aminzadeh, “Iran's Foreign Policy”; Islamic Iran Participation Front, No Title, March 19, 2006 (published under the title “The Statement that Was Published After Six Years,” October 21, 2012, available at http://www.iran-emrooz.net/index.php/news1/41410/ (accessed October 23, 2012); Haghighatjoo, “Factional Positions,” 3.

69. Aminzadeh, “Iran's Nuclear Policy.”

70. Ibid.

71. Ibid.

72. Ibid.

73. Ahmad Jennati, “Ahmad Jennati: Masir Parvandeh Hastehi dar Do Sale Gozashte Na-dorost Bood” (Ahmad Jennati: The Policy Trend of the Nuclear File in the Past Two Years Was Unsound), ILNA, February 17, 2006, available at http://www.ilna.ir/shownews.asp?code=281793&code1=1 (accessed February 20, 2006).

74. Khamenei, “Supreme Leader's Speech.”

75. Islamic Iran Participation Front, “The Statement.”

76. Ibid., my translation.

77. Ali Khamenei, “Supreme Leader's Letter to President Rouhani Regarding the Bar-Jaam,” Khamenei.ir, October 21, 2015, available at http://english.khamenei.ir//index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2130 (accessed October 31, 2015).

78. Masoud Kazemzadeh, “Post-Khamenei Iran and American National Interests,” The Hill, July 11, 2016.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Masoud Kazemzadeh

Masoud Kazemzadeh ([email protected]) is associate professor of political science at Sam Houston State University. He received his BA in international relations from the University of Minnesota, and his MA and PhD in political science from the University of Southern California. He was a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University's Center for Middle Eastern Studies. His articles include: “Hassan Rouhani's Election and its Consequences for American Foreign Policy,” American Foreign Policy Interests (2014); “Ayatollah Khamenei's Foreign Policy Orientation,” Comparative Strategy (2013); “U.S.-Iran Confrontation: Domestic Asymmetrical Ramifications,” Terrorism Law Report (2012); “U.S.-Iran Confrontation in the Post-NIE World: An Analysis of Alternative Policy Options,” Comparative Strategy (2009); “Intra-Elite Factionalism and the 2004 Majles Elections in Iran,” Middle Eastern Studies (2008); “Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy,” Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East (2007); and “Teaching the Politics of Islamic Fundamentalism,” PS: Political Science and Politics (1998).