Arming China or arming India: Future Russian dilemmas

Abstract

Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has continued the Soviet policy of selling arms to India while also cultivating China as a customer for its high‐technology military hardware. China and India have purchased some of Russia's most advanced weapons and have helped to prop up Russia's disintegrating defense industry. But the underlying rivalry between India and China could, over the long term, derail this dual‐track Russian arms‐sales policy toward its two largest and most important clients. This article first outlines the nature and extent of Russo‐Indian and Sino‐Russian arms cooperation. It then explains the geopolitical and economic factors that could eventually force Russia to make a choice between one client or the other, a contest that India would probably win. Finally, it examines the consequences of these events for the future of Russian foreign policy.