Ethnic Differences in Demographic Behavior in the United States Has There Been Convergence?

Abstract

The author looks at the fertility, mortality, and marriage experience of racial, ethnic, and nativity groups in the United States from the nineteenth to the late twentieth centuries. The first part of the essay describes and critiques the racial and ethnic categories used in the federal census and in the published vital statistics; the second part examines the three dimensions of demographic behavior. Both absolute and relative convergence of fertility across groups has been of relatively recent origin and in large part has been due to stable, or even slightly increasing, birthrates for the majority white population combined with declining birthrates for blacks and the Asian-origin, Hispanic-origin, and Amerindian populations. This has not been true for mortality. The black population has experienced absolute convergence but relative deterioration in mortality (neonatal and infant mortality, maternal mortality, expectation of life at birth, and age-adjusted death rates), in contrast with the Amerindian and Asian-origin populations. The Asian-origin population now has age-adjusted death rates significantly lower than those for the white population. The disadvantaged condition of the black population and the deteriorating social safety net are the likely origins of this outcome. Finally, a trend toward earlier and more extensive marriage existed from about 1900 until the 1960s. At this point, coincident with the end of the baby boom, there has been a movement to later marriage for both males and females among whites, blacks, and the Hispanic-origin populations, a trend that has been more extreme in the black population, especially among females. There has also been a significant rise in percentages never-married at ages 45-54 among blacks and, to a lesser extent, among Hispanics. So here, too, there has been some divergence.

Key Words:

• convergence
• demography
• ethnicity
• race
• United States