New Estimates of Child Mortality in the United States at the Turn of the Century

Abstract

This article estimates levels of childhood mortality on the basis of new data derived from a nationally representative sample of manuscripts of the 1900 U.S. census. The data are responses to census questions on numbers of children ever born and numbers surviving. The results for a subsample corresponding to the small death registration area (DRA) in 1900/02 validate the procedures used. Among the principal findings are that the 1900/02 DRA life tables very seriously overestimate national child mortality among blacks, that there is a small overestimate for whites, but that the combined figures are accurate because of an underrepresentation of blacks in the DRA. Evidence also indicates that child mortality was declining at a moderate pace in the late 19th century, but that little decline was occurring among blacks. The results suggest the need for revising accounts of American black demographic history, including birth rates. They also imply that 20th-century progress in narrowing black-white mortality differentials has been smaller than is commonly believed.

Key Words:

• U.S. mortality
• Child mortality
• Mortality trends
• Black–white mortality