Calibrated Seismic Verification of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty

Abstract

To improve verification of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty, the United States and Russia have embarked on an effort to make on-site yield measurements of each other's nuclear tests. Beyond their direct use in verification, these measurements also may prove useful in calibrating a monitoring system based on seismic magnitudes. The relative merits of seismic monitoring vis-a-vis on-site measurement have been at the core of a long-standing controversy. Many seismic verification problems hinge on statistical issues, including linear calibration based on a small data set and the formal use of expert opinion.

Key Words:

• Arms control
• Bayesian methods
• Calibration
• Expert opinion
• Verification technology