1. PROLOGUE
For many years, it has been the custom for the past president of the American Statistical Association (ASA) to introduce the presidential address. The 2012 introduction, given by Past President Nancy L. Geller, began with the following story:
Long ago, there was a mathematics professor at Case Western Reserve University named Frank Ryan. Dr. Ryan taught an introductory course in probability and statistics, and he also happened to be the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. Inevitably, his dual career led to class scheduling conflicts during the fall, which were resolved by drafting a graduate student as the backup instructor. Her name was Nancy Geller.
Eventually, Dr. Ryan was signed away from the Browns by Vince Lombardi, the coach of the Washington Redskins. That happened in September, and Nancy was asked to teach the course for the entire semester. Among the students who had enrolled was an undergraduate whose name was Bob Rodriguez.
So it was that Nancy, abetted by Coach Lombardi, introduced me to the study of statistics.
2. INTRODUCTION: STATISTICAL HEROES
When I took that first course, I had no idea where it would lead. I simply wanted to learn more.
Five wonderful years as a graduate student in statistics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill trained me in statistical theory. Work at General Motors Research Laboratories and at SAS taught me the diversity of statistical practice. Participation in ASA activities led me to become a professional statistician. Those were the key steps that transformed me from a beginning statistics student into a member of the statistics profession.
At every step, I have been inspired by the heroes of our profession. Every profession has its heroes. Heroes are people who achieve great things in ways that encourage us in our own efforts to do great things.
Our profession has an extraordinary number of heroes. I believe this is true because statistics is the most unselfish of the sciences.
Statistics improves human welfare. Statistics improves human welfare not by its own ends, but by its contributions in all fields.
Three of my statistical heroes are Walter Shewhart, Frederick Mosteller, and Gertrude Cox. They contributed in industry, education, medicine, public health, and government. All three were ASA presidents. All are warmly remembered for the personal interest they took in the work of others. When I think about their concern for others and their vision for our profession, I am encouraged, motivated, and inspired.
Walter Shewhart gave his presidential address in 1945. His theme was how statistics, working together with the sciences, could serve society. Shewhart believed that if statistics could minister to all people and if the majority of people could understand this contribution, then the future of the statistical profession would be assured.
To advance this goal, Shewhart looked to the ASA. His hope was that the ASA would develop into a “strong organization to serve the common interests of all professional statisticians.”
For me, Fred Mosteller personifies the kind of statistician that Shewhart had in mind. Mosteller used statistics in areas as diverse as anesthesia, presidential elections, and baseball. In 1961, he taught statistics to the public on NBC's television program, “Continental Classroom.”
The most influential hero in my career is Gertrude Cox. Professor Cox came to North Carolina in 1941 and founded three departments at a time when there were few programs in statistics and few women in the field.
She established the program that is today the Department of Statistics at North Carolina State University. She recruited Harold Hotelling to form the Department of Mathematical Statistics at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. And she encouraged Bernard Greenberg to start the Department of Biostatistics in Chapel Hill.
SAS began in 1966 at North Carolina State as a project to analyze agricultural data. Today, I am convinced that I would not have spent the last 29 years at SAS if Gertrude Cox had not come to North Carolina!
Because statistics serves society, each of us has the opportunity to be a hero. It doesn't matter whether you work in research, teaching, applications, or software development. You always have ways to improve human welfare. You always have a place to encourage, serve, and inspire others.
For us, there is no better place for doing this than the ASA. There is no better time than now at the ASA. There is no better way to start than by volunteering for the ASA.
I believe there is no greater opportunity to become a hero than here in our association. Which one of you will be the next hero?
3. THE CONCEPT OF THE BIG TENT
I believe that today the strength of the ASA is its ability to serve our members in the diversity of their statistical practice.
Our future strength over the next 25 years will be serving anyone who uses statistical methods to solve problems. These include problems that draw on new types of data in science, business, and policy making.
Regardless of whom we serve, whether they call themselves statisticians, scientists, or business analysts, we must convey the importance of statistical contributions. We must have the ability to explain, demonstrate, and prove that importance to students, to the media—and most of all—to society.
We have become the world's largest community of professional statisticians by serving the needs of statisticians in universities, industry, and government. Yet today, the landscape for statistical practice is expanding quickly. We must ensure that statisticians of any type—regardless of training, experience, and area of practice—find value in becoming and remaining members of our association.
In other words, the ASA must become the big tent for statistics.
How many of you are familiar with the term “big tent”? If you have children, it means a circus tent—a place where everyone finds enjoyment. If you follow American politics, “the big tent” is a political party that includes many views. If you come to the North Carolina State Fair, you will see big tents that serve barbecue for meat lovers, fresh corn on the cob for vegetarians, and deep-fried Twinkies for thrill seekers.
Big tents do three things. They attract all kinds of people, they serve them on the inside, and they are highly visible on the outside.
For us, the phrase “big tent for statistics” describes what we must become: the association that attracts all kinds of statisticians, serves them on the inside, and promotes their contributions on the outside.
4. YOUR ROLE IN BUILDING THE BIG TENT
This evening, you will hear about initiatives that are underway to build the big tent. We need your support as volunteers.
When you hear about these initiatives, ask yourself “How can I make a difference?” Can you create an activity in your section, chapter, or committee? Can you organize a session? How can you make a difference?
No matter what skills you have, we need you. Contact the leaders of the initiatives and offer to help.
As we prepare for the International Year of Statistics in 2013, followed by the 175th anniversary of our association in 2014, now is the perfect time to build the ASA as the big tent for statistics.
By volunteering, you will find yourself at the forefront of building the big tent. You will meet outstanding people, acquire new skills, and broaden your understanding of statistics. You will build your own strength as a statistician. You will build the strength of our association to promote our profession. By volunteering, you will build the strength of our profession to serve society's needs.
I believe that the ASA must become the big tent for statistics, and I want to support this theme with three points. First, I will explain the purpose of the big tent. Second, I will show you the progress we are making in building the big tent. Third, I will describe the power of the big tent.
5. THE PURPOSE OF THE BIG TENT
You heard me say that the big tent must serve all kinds of statisticians. The purpose of the big tent is to serve statisticians in every area of practice. It is especially important to the future of the ASA that we serve statisticians in new areas of practice.
Last year, I was invited by a statistics department to give a talk on new career opportunities for statisticians. Afterward, one of the students in my audience came up and introduced herself. I will call her Judy. Judy was a student member of the ASA, planning to graduate with a master's degree in statistics. She was very excited about an upcoming interview with a Big Data company.
Judy had two questions for me, which I've been thinking about ever since:
| • | Can you tell me more about Big Data? | ||||
| • | How do I become a data scientist? | ||||
These are questions all of us need to think about because Big Data is a new area of statistical practice.
We also have to ask ourselves a few more questions:
| • | If Judy doesn't meet data scientists in the ASA, where will she find mentors? | ||||
| • | If Judy doesn't learn about Big Data in the ASA, where will she go? | ||||
| • | Down the road, when the ASA needs Judy's contributions, where will she be? | ||||
To ensure that young people like Judy find value in ASA membership, we must become the big tent that serves all areas of statistical practice.
That certainly includes areas that are strengths of our current members. That also includes areas that are new for us, such as informatics, business analytics, and—most recently—Big Data.
These new areas are emerging because our society is data rich and data dependent. McKinsey Global Institute tells us that by 2018, the United States will need vastly more people with expertise in statistical methods. The additional number is between 140,000 and 190,000.
More and more people outside of the ASA are using statistics to solve important problems with new sources of data. These people include researchers, computer scientists, and data scientists. While many are doing innovative statistical work, they don't call themselves statisticians. They don't see the ASA as the “go to” place for statistics.
This is a serious disconnect! This is a disconnect that marginalizes our field at a time when statistics should be expanding to meet the needs of a data-dependent society. This is a disconnect that limits the ASA's role in promoting the practice and profession of statistics. This is a disconnect that diminishes the ASA's ability to retain young people like Judy.
5.1. What Is Big Data?
I want to suggest ways we can connect with the area of Big Data. Before I do that, I want to go over a few things I've learned about Big Data. This is a new area for us, and after talking to Judy, I felt I had to learn as much as I could.
Big Data is new for us in three ways. First, Big Data is relentless. It is continuously generated on a massive scale. It is generated by online interactions among people, by transactions between people and systems, and by sensor-enabled equipment.
Second, Big Data is relatable. It can be related, linked, and integrated to provide highly detailed information. That detail makes it possible for banks to introduce individually tailored services, for health care providers to offer personalized medicine, and for public safety departments to anticipate crime in targeted areas.
Third, Big Data is renowned. The New York Times reports that Big Data is creating new business and transforming traditional business. The world of science views Big Data as the key to answering big questions.
I was in Washington this past March when the Obama administration announced a Big Data research and development initiative. The initiative includes new funding opportunities supported by the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation (NSF). Yesterday, in the President's Invited Address, Dr. Alan Krueger, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, listed Big Data as the first of his “Six Challenges for the Statistics Community.”
The NSF is now hard at work on Judy's questions. It is encouraging universities to prepare the next generation of data scientists at all levels.
5.2. What Is a Data Scientist?
This is the term increasingly used for people who draw insights from large amounts of data. Employers who hire data scientists tell me they need innovative problem solvers with expertise in statistical modeling and machine learning, specialized programming skills, and a solid grasp of the business. Data scientists must also communicate what they learn from data.
Some of these skills are taught in statistics programs. In fact, data science is an interdisciplinary blend of statistical, mathematical, and computational sciences.
5.3. Connecting with Big Data
Now that we have this background, how do we connect with the area of Big Data? There are three steps we can take.
Step 1 is to engage with data scientists outside of the ASA who are involved in Big Data problems, research, and technology.
Many of you are thinking about sessions for the 2013 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM 2013). I ask you to organize interdisciplinary sessions about Big Data that cover challenging applications, collaborative research, and workforce training. The person to contact is your section program chair.
Step 2 is to explain why statisticians are essential. We must explain our unique contributions to consumers of Big Data and to the media.
I ask you to take every opportunity to explain what sets us apart from mathematical and computational scientists. Explain that we bring statistical thinking into the picture. Explain that statistical thinking sets us apart in three ways:
| • | Like others, we look for features in large data—and moreover we guard against false discovery, bias, and confounding. | ||||
| • | Like others, we build statistical models that explain, predict, and forecast—and moreover we qualify their use with measures of uncertainty. | ||||
| • | Like others, we work with available data—and moreover we design studies to produce data that have the right information content. | ||||
Most of all, be sure to explain that we make a difference because Big Data on its own does not guarantee reliable answers to the Big Questions.
Step 3 is to provide training that prepares our members to work with Big Data.
For example, because so much Big Data comes from sources such as mobile phones, social networks, and health records, we will need the ability to analyze unstructured text data. I ask you to organize tutorials for JSM 2013 that introduce statisticians to topics such as text analytics. The person to contact is the JSM 2013 program chair, Bhramar Mukherjee.
If we engage with other disciplines, if we explain our contributions, and if we educate our members, we will see results. Many of you will make important contributions with Big Data. All of us will see data scientists in the big tent. And one of them will be Judy.
6. PROGRESS TOWARD THE BIG TENT
I've spent some time giving you the concept of the big tent. What I find exciting is not the concept, but seeing what volunteer members are doing to make the concept a reality.
Several years ago, I heard about a new executive briefing center that was being built on the SAS campus. I heard it would be huge, nearly 300,000 square feet, with state-of-the-art technology, and yet I had a hard time picturing it.
Then one day I ran into the supervisor who was in charge of the construction. When I asked her about it, she offered me a tour of the project. I had to wear a hard hat for safety, and the site was noisy and dusty. Nonetheless, as we walked around, I began to see a lot more than concrete, steel, and cables. I saw how people would someday use the design, the space, and the technology. I saw myself there. And I couldn't wait to get back and tell my friends about it.
That's how I feel about the big tent. I want to share my excitement by giving you a tour of the big tent construction site. Of course, you won't have to wear a hard hat tonight!
6.1. Completed Construction
As we enter the construction site, I’d like you to see two goals that we've reached after several years of work by our members.
Our accreditation program is fully up and running. Accreditation recognizes the training, experience, and ethical standards for competent statistical practice. If you know people whose work would benefit from this recognition, encourage them to apply! Accreditation is value that will bring them into the big tent. Accreditation adds visibility to the big tent because it says to society that statistics is a job for skilled professionals.
We also have a new conference. This winter, we held our first annual Conference on Statistical Practice, which we created to deliver the skills, knowledge, and experience needed for successful practice. The conference also serves new areas such as business analytics.
Feedback this year was absolutely positive. One person told me, “I've been waiting 20 years for a conference like this!” He won't have to wait so long for the next one. It is scheduled for February 21, 2013, in New Orleans.
Mark that date and tell others about this conference! Students will learn about new career areas. Experienced statisticians will sharpen their skills, update their knowledge, and gain fresh insights.
6.2. Newer Construction
Now, let's move to some newer construction. Around here, you’re going to have to watch out for wet paint, loose nails, and forklifts driving around.
Last year, I started four presidential initiatives. For each of these initiatives, I’ll give you a contact person so that you can pick up some power tools and help out.
My first initiative is planning for the 175th anniversary of the ASA in 2014. We are the second oldest professional society in the country. Because this anniversary is a major milestone in the long life of our association, we have a lot to celebrate and everyone should be involved. A group headed by Christy Chuang-Stein is generating ideas for the anniversary and is working with chapters, sections, and committees to coordinate their activities.
I challenge all of you to contribute activities that energize our future by making the ASA the big tent for statistics in the next 25 years. Contact our executive director, Ron Wasserstein, with your ideas.
My second initiative is to provide ASA training in career success factors. When I began planning my initiatives, I decided to learn more about needs in new areas of statistical practice. I invited executives from several major corporations to spend an afternoon at ASA headquarters. I asked how the ASA could serve the needs of their statisticians.
Every executive said the same thing: “Please provide training in soft skills. The statisticians we hire need communication skills to explain the importance of their work to the rest of the organization.” In fact, many ASA members would benefit from better skills for communication and for influencing others.
To meet these needs, a group led by Robert Starbuck is developing training in presentation skills and leadership. The goal is to offer this training next year to local ASA audiences.
I ask you to participate when the training becomes available. Sign up for it. Sponsor it in your chapter, your department, or your company. For young people, this is training that will get your career off to a fast start. For those with experience, this is training that will make you more valuable to your organization.
My third initiative is to strengthen master's degree programs in statistics and biostatistics. A group chaired by John Bailer is recommending learning outcomes for master's degree programs. These are based on input from employers and recent graduates about knowledge that benefits statisticians on the job.
If you teach in a master's degree program, I encourage you to contact John Bailer. Applying these outcomes will help you equip your students for success after they graduate.
My fourth initiative enables you to tell others about important new developments in our association. During the last 3 years, we have accomplished significant goals such as the new Conference on Statistical Practice. Now, we need to make sure everyone knows about them. We need to inform our local statistical communities about the most exciting developments in the ASA.
A group led by Jeri Mulrow has prepared attractive presentation slides that you can present to your chapter or your department. We call these messages “in-reach communication” because they are for our own members, colleagues, and students.
If you are a chapter officer, I ask you to include these messages in your meetings. Contact Jeri Mulrow or Ron Wasserstein for more information.
When you get home, your friends are going to ask you what you did at JSM. Tell them you took a hard-hat tour. Tell them many volunteers are building the big tent for statistics. Tell them anyone can volunteer. Tell them what excited you the most.
7. POWER OF THE BIG TENT
I've talked about creating a big tent that serves all kinds of statisticians. You've done the tour and seen the construction of the big tent. None of that will mean anything if the people who come to the big tent don't make it their permanent professional home.
The power of the big tent is the personal value that someone finds inside. It is what drives someone to look at what we’re doing and say, “Me too!”
I had a wonderful opportunity to explain this on Sunday. The Committee on Minorities held a diversity workshop for students and recent graduates, and I was invited to tell these young people what they will gain by actively participating in the ASA.
This week, all of you have seen young people here at JSM. You’ll see a lot more of them on the dance floor tonight! Tomorrow morning, I’d like each of you to do one thing for me. Find a couple of these young people and buy them a cup of coffee—they’ll probably need it! Sit down and talk. Ask about their interests. Then tell them about three values they will find by participating in the ASA.
The first value is the power to remain in demand. The students I meet are career minded. They know statistics graduates are in demand. They want to know what will keep them in demand after they leave school.
Young professionals will need to keep up with statistical theory, methodology, and applications. They will need to know about new data, new problems, and new computational technology. They will need to develop skills in collaboration, communication, and leadership.
The best place for young people to keep learning is the ASA. Here is where they will learn from outstanding researchers and teachers. Here is where they will learn to serve and to lead. Here is where they will learn from you.
That has always been my experience. I’ll never forget my first ASA short course; the instructors were John Tukey and Fred Mosteller. Many of you here tonight have helped me become a professional statistician. I deeply appreciate your teaching, your wisdom, and your encouragement.
The power to remain in demand will bring young people into the big tent. What will challenge and engage them for the long run?
That is the second value. It is the power to become purpose driven. It means coming to work with a broader view of what you are accomplishing as a statistician. You perceive your career as far more than designing experiments, analyzing data, and writing papers, because those activities are now the means to a greater end.
Purpose-driven statisticians do better science, they transform business, they inform public policy, and they empower students.
For young people who seek to be part of something bigger, the ASA is the best place for them to meet outstanding statisticians who are purpose driven. This evening, you and I are surrounded by role models, including the new fellows we are recognizing and those who are receiving awards.
There is a third value we can offer to young people. That is the power to reach higher with our profession. We reach higher by influencing the use of statistics in policy decisions at the national level.
This matters to the young people I meet. They need to hear what we are doing to promote better use of statistics in education, science, and policy.
Here are three examples of how we are reaching higher:
| • | ASA members are influencing the way statistics is taught at the K–12 level in the 48 states that have adopted the Common Core State Standards. Here we have reached higher by working as an association. None of us could do this on our own. | ||||
| • | This winter, several ASA members went to Capitol Hill and participated in Climate Science Day for the second year in a row. Here, the outcome of reaching higher is better-informed legislation. | ||||
| • | A number of our members with expertise in forensic science have reached higher by meeting with Senate staff members to advocate for improving forensic science. Last week I wrote to Senator John Rockefeller supporting a bill he is proposing to reform forensic science. | ||||
I believe the power of the big tent gives us the ability to engage and retain the young people who are the future of our association. We must show them that the ASA gives all of us the ability to remain in demand, to become purpose driven, and to reach higher.
Young people who draw on the power of the big tent will gain personal success. They will experience that moment of transformation when statistics becomes more than a job. They will experience a greater scope of accomplishment.
The power of the big tent also benefits those of us who have lived in the ASA for many years. We will see an even stronger association when the next generation understands the broad purpose of statistics. We will see better policy decisions when the next generation joins us in advocating for statistics in high-level decision making.
8. CLOSING: STRENGTH THROUGH SERVICE
Today, the strength of our association is the ability to serve our members in the diversity of their statistical practice. Our future strength, as we look to our 200th anniversary, will be serving anyone who solves problems with statistical methods. Regardless of whom we serve, we must always convey the importance of statistical contributions to students, to the media, and—most of all—to the public.
You have heard about our progress in building the big tent. You have taken the tour. Now is the perfect time to join in. Start by contacting the leaders of the initiatives you heard about or our executive director, Ron Wasserstein.
By becoming the big tent for statistics, our association will gain the vigor, the vitality, and the visibility it needs for the next 25 years.
At the 200th birthday of our association, our members will celebrate what we accomplished in the big tent for statistics. Above all, they will celebrate what our profession accomplished to improve human welfare and serve society's deepest needs.
Look around this room. Look at the people in your rows: to your left and to your right. Look around and notice all the people in the professional home we call the ASA.
As you notice all those people, think about what I said earlier. You heard me say that statistics is the most unselfish science. You heard me say that ASA's strength today is serving members in their diversity of practice. You heard me say that our future strength, as the big tent for statistics, is serving anyone who uses statistical methods to solve problems.
Here is what I believe you should see as you look around the room. You should see unlimited opportunity. You should see unlimited opportunity to serve within the ASA. You should see unlimited opportunity to serve society.
For me, one of the greatest examples of serving society is an Olympic champion named Eric Liddell. It seems appropriate to talk about him this week because the news is all about the Olympic Games. The media haven't quite figured out that the Olympics are only the second most exciting meeting in the world!
During the 1924 Olympics, Liddell won the gold medal in the 400 meter race. He set a new world record with a time of 47.5 seconds. Although Liddell ran for Great Britain, he is also listed as an Olympic champion by China because he was born there in 1902. For some of you, Eric Liddell is the main character in the film Chariots of Fire, which won four Academy Awards in 1981. The film ends where the real story begins.
After the 1924 games, Liddell returned to China, where he taught science and sports. When Japanese invaders reached his area of China in 1943, he was placed in an internment camp for civilians in the city of Weifang. There, he constantly served others. He taught, he helped the elderly, he made sure food was distributed fairly, and he organized sports activities for the children. He encouraged everyone.
Eric Liddell never left that camp. He died of illness in 1945, only a few months before the camp was liberated. Before he died, he was offered freedom in a prisoner exchange. Instead, he gave his place to a pregnant woman, trading his life for two.
The story does not end there. In Weifang, where the camp once stood, there is now a middle school. It is a place of learning where Eric Liddell is honored by teachers, students, and his former pupils. They do not remember him as a great athlete. They remember him as a hero who dedicated his life to helping others.
Eric Liddell gives each of us a gold standard for service. As individuals, we can follow his example by serving others wherever we happen to be. As ASA members, we can follow his example by serving our profession. As professional statisticians, we can follow his example by serving society.
The average person looking at the ASA from the outside does not see the opportunity we have to make a difference in the world. Nor is it likely that you were thinking about that today as you attended technical sessions.
We see the opportunity in the big tent for statistics when we view our profession the way in which Walter Shewhart, Fred Mosteller, and Gertrude Cox did. We see statistics serving society in every field. We see that opportunity in everyone here this evening.
The future of our profession is unlimited if we grow the opportunity for statistics to meet the needs of a data-dependent society.
I challenge each of you to serve our profession as Walter Shewhart, Fred Mosteller, and Gertrude Cox did. I challenge each of you to serve others as Eric Liddell did. I challenge each of you to become a hero.
That's what the big tent is all about!