The Role of CPS Nonresponse in the Measurement of Poverty

Abstract

The Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) serves as the data source for official income, poverty, and inequality statistics in the United States. There is a concern that the rise in nonresponse to earnings questions could deteriorate data quality and distort estimates of these important metrics. We use a dataset of internal ASEC records matched to Social Security Detailed Earnings Records (DER) to study the impact of earnings nonresponse on estimates of poverty from 1997–2008. Our analysis does not treat the administrative data as the “truth”; instead, we rely on information from both administrative and survey data. We compare a “full response” poverty rate that assumes all ASEC respondents provided earnings data to the official poverty rate to gauge the nonresponse bias. On average, we find the nonresponse bias is about 1.0 percentage point.

• Administrative data
• Hot deck
• Imputation
• Nonrandom selection

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Charles Hokayem

Charles Hokayem is Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics, Centre College, Danville, KY 40422 (E-mail: [email protected]). Christopher Bollinger is Professor, Department of Economics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506-0034 (E-mail: [email protected]). James P. Ziliak is Chair, Department of Economics, and Director, Center for Poverty Research, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506-0047 (E-mail: [email protected]). We thank Martha Stinson, Graton Gathright, and Gary Benedetto for their help in understanding the Detailed Earnings Record files. The matched ASEC-DER file was made possible by funding to Census from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services under the direction of Joan Turek at ASPE and Chuck Nelson and Ed Welniak at Census. We thank the editor, two anonymous referees, Ed Welniak, Trudi Renwick, Chuck Nelson, Adam Bee, and session participants at the 2012 Joint Statistical Meetings, the 2013 Society of Labor Economists Meetings, 2013 Institute for Research on Poverty Summer Workshop, and University of Kentucky for helpful comments. We also thank the Summer at Census program for support. Much of this article was written while Hokayem was employed by the U.S. Census Bureau. The views expressed in this research, including those related to statistical, methodological, technical, or operational issues, are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions or policies of the Census Bureau. The authors accept responsibility for all errors.Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/r/jasa.

Christopher Bollinger

Charles Hokayem is Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics, Centre College, Danville, KY 40422 (E-mail: [email protected]). Christopher Bollinger is Professor, Department of Economics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506-0034 (E-mail: [email protected]). James P. Ziliak is Chair, Department of Economics, and Director, Center for Poverty Research, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506-0047 (E-mail: [email protected]). We thank Martha Stinson, Graton Gathright, and Gary Benedetto for their help in understanding the Detailed Earnings Record files. The matched ASEC-DER file was made possible by funding to Census from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services under the direction of Joan Turek at ASPE and Chuck Nelson and Ed Welniak at Census. We thank the editor, two anonymous referees, Ed Welniak, Trudi Renwick, Chuck Nelson, Adam Bee, and session participants at the 2012 Joint Statistical Meetings, the 2013 Society of Labor Economists Meetings, 2013 Institute for Research on Poverty Summer Workshop, and University of Kentucky for helpful comments. We also thank the Summer at Census program for support. Much of this article was written while Hokayem was employed by the U.S. Census Bureau. The views expressed in this research, including those related to statistical, methodological, technical, or operational issues, are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions or policies of the Census Bureau. The authors accept responsibility for all errors.Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/r/jasa.

James P. Ziliak

Charles Hokayem is Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics, Centre College, Danville, KY 40422 (E-mail: [email protected]). Christopher Bollinger is Professor, Department of Economics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506-0034 (E-mail: [email protected]). James P. Ziliak is Chair, Department of Economics, and Director, Center for Poverty Research, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506-0047 (E-mail: [email protected]). We thank Martha Stinson, Graton Gathright, and Gary Benedetto for their help in understanding the Detailed Earnings Record files. The matched ASEC-DER file was made possible by funding to Census from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services under the direction of Joan Turek at ASPE and Chuck Nelson and Ed Welniak at Census. We thank the editor, two anonymous referees, Ed Welniak, Trudi Renwick, Chuck Nelson, Adam Bee, and session participants at the 2012 Joint Statistical Meetings, the 2013 Society of Labor Economists Meetings, 2013 Institute for Research on Poverty Summer Workshop, and University of Kentucky for helpful comments. We also thank the Summer at Census program for support. Much of this article was written while Hokayem was employed by the U.S. Census Bureau. The views expressed in this research, including those related to statistical, methodological, technical, or operational issues, are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions or policies of the Census Bureau. The authors accept responsibility for all errors.Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/r/jasa.