Facing past, present, and future: the role of historical beliefs and experiences in the Lithuanian public perception of military threats

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the role of historical beliefs and experiences in threat perception. Drawing on the results of a representative survey in Lithuania, it demonstrates a link between public beliefs about the Soviet period and public assessments of the likelihood of Russian military invasion, NATO disintegration, and diminishing levels of national security. Additionally, the study places historical beliefs within a tapestry of other theoretically-informed factors related to the perception of military threats. The results speak in favor of social complexity, where past and present come to inform the Lithuanian public’s understanding of the future.

KEYWORDS:

• Threat perception
• historical beliefs
• Lithuania
• dyadic threats
• polyadic threats

Acknowledgments

This study was a part of the project GER-15021 entitled “The cognitive map of domestic and external threats in Lithuania” and funded by the Research Council of Lithuania.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. There was also an option to reject a particular issue as a threat altogether, which was coded as 0. Given the range and distribution of values, the variable of interest was treated as continuous.

2. Please refer to the Appendix for more detailed information about these and other measures utilized in the study.

3. In March and April 2014, the Radio and Television Commission of Lithuania temporary suspended the broadcasting of Russian language channels RTR Planeta and NTV Mir Lietuva for inciting war, hatred, and providing false information (Kruopstaite 2014).

Additional information

Funding

This study was a part of the project GER-15021 entitled “The cognitive map of domestic and external threats in Lithuania” and funded by the Research Council of Lithuania.

Notes on contributors

Ainius Lašas

Ainius Lašas is an Associate Professor at Kaunas University of Technology. His research focuses on informal political culture and the role of history and historical beliefs in decision making.

Irmina Matonytė

Irmina Matonytė is a Full Professor of Political Science at the Military Academy of Lithuania. She also teaches at the ISM University of Management and Economics, Lithuania. During 2016-2018 she was a senior research fellow at Kaunas University of Technology. She publishes widely within the fields of political sociology, European studies and political communication.

Vaida Jankauskaitė

Vaida Jankauskaitė holds a PhD in Sociology from Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania. Her main research interests cover civil society and democratic governance with specific focus on interest organizations, party-interest group relationship and political finance.