Support for free trade: an experimental survey in Estonia and Latvia

ABSTRACT

This study examines successful and intensive free-trade policies in Estonia and Latvia, which exist despite the low-levels of domestic welfare in these countries. In contrast to the conventional elite-centric approach, this study uses a survey experiment to explore rationales for positive public opinion toward free trade policy. The results reveal that an individual exposed to the stimulus of a strategic security issue or consumer consideration tends to support free trade. These effects are evident among Latvians and highly-educated Estonians. Furthermore, the favorable international environment enhances the positive public opinion of free trade in Estonia and Latvia.

KEYWORDS:

• Free trade
• Latvia
• Estonia
• national security
• consumer goods
• survey experiment

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Acknowledgments

I would like to express my gratitude to Timofey Agarin and Heiko Pääbo for providing me with local language assistance when designing the survey form. Ethical approval of the survey was obtained from the affiliated university's Institutional Review Board (#19-7, #30-9, The University of Kitakyushu).

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The dataset associated with this paper will be provided through the Harvard Dataverse (https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/rn).

Notes

1. In addition, there was a period when high tariffs were introduced on certain products as a countermeasure against Russian dumping.

2. In this regard, we can debate the extent to which the competitiveness of these industry specialist immigrant groups was low/high. It also defines the degree of concern about free trade. Nissinen (1999) and Feldmann (2001) discuss this industrial-technological perspective in detail.

3. The same also seems to have been the case on the receiving side (EU). It is said that the reason why the Baltic states concluded Free Trade Agreements with the EU as early as 1994 was not because they met the economic criteria, but because of the many political and geopolitical considerations in western European countries (van Ham 1998, 28).

4. Strategic decisions of political elites came into play here as well. Small economies have the advantage of being able to shift more toward the tech and service-oriented sectors, such as the initiative of former President Toomas Hendrik Ilves to promote Estonia’s investment in ICT industries. This meant state funding and investment shifted from the agricultural and industrial sectors to the tech and service sectors. Whether or not this could successfully happen party depended on how far the existing old interest groups were able to exercise their political influence on the process.

5. From the perspective of EU politics, one could argue that even if welfare spending by the Estonian and Latvian governments is weak, they are still subsidized by EU cohesion funds. At the same time, while cohesion funds can be used for development programs, constructing infrastructure, and stimulating the overall economy of the two countries, they do not necessarily directly help those in economic distress.

6. The wording of the question was retrieved from the New Baltic Barometer (Rose 2010).

7. Taken together, when analyzing the baseline of support, cognizance of individual economic circumstances had no effect, but cognizance of the economic circumstances of the state had an effect. People do not operate solely with a myopic view of benefits or damages but hold a sociotropic view.

8. Woolfson (2007; 2009; 2010) provide important insights into the labor emigration issue in Latvia (and Lithuania) in the context of hardship and liberalization and ethnic issues.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the JSPS Grants-in-Aids No. 17H02484.

Notes on contributors

Ryo Nakai

Ryo Nakai is an associate professor of political science at the University of Kitakyushu. Previous affiliations include Rikkyo University and Waseda University. His research interests focus on elections, public opinion, and nationalism in the Baltic countries and other European nations.