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Notes
1 Patrick Reevell, “Russia makes sweeping demands for security guarantees from US amid Ukraine tensions,” ABC News, December 17, 2021, https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-makes-sweeping-demands-security-guarantees-us-amid/story?id=81821816.
2 Bruce W. Jentleson, “The Pretty Prudent Public: Post Post-Vietnam American Opinion on the Use of Military Force,” International Studies Quarterly 36, no. 1 (1992): 49-73; Marc. J Hetherington and Michael Nelson, “Anatomy of a Rally Effect: George W. Bush and the War on Terrorism,” PS: Political Science and Politics 36, no. 1 (2003): 37-42.
3 Dan Reiter, “Exploding the Powder Keg Myth: Preemptive Wars Almost Never Happen,” International Security 20, no. 2 (1995): 25-26.
4 Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981), 23-40.
5 Amy Zegart, “Open Secrets,” Foreign Affairs 102, no. 1 (Jan/Feb 2023), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/open-secrets-ukraine-intelligence-revolution-amy-zegart.
6 Lucy Ash, “How Russia Outfoxes its Enemies,” BBC News, January 29, 2015, https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-31020283; Michael Kofman et al., Lessons from Russia’s Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017), 12-16.
7 Chris Whipple, The Fight of His Life (New York: Scribner, 2023), 211.
8 Dan Lomas, “Ukraine and Intelligence Prebuttal: A Quick Post-Mortem,” Royal United Services Institute, February 24, 2022, https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-and-intelligence-prebuttal-quick-post-mortem; Greg Myre, “As Russia Threatens Ukraine, the U.S. ‘pre-bunks’ Russian Propaganda,” NPR, February 8, 2022, https://www.npr.org/2022/02/08/1079213726/as-russia-threatens-ukraine-the-u-s-pre-bunks-russian-propaganda; Nomaan Merchant, “US Tries to Name and Shame Russian Disinformation on Ukraine,” Associated Press, January 28, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-russia-media-vladimir-putin-ecba20c81181c028b06109cf8620426a.
9 Shane Harris and Paul Sonne, “Russia planning massive military offensive against Ukraine involving 175,000 troops, U.S. intelligence warns,” Washington Post, December 3, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russia-ukraine-invasion/2021/12/03/98a3760e-546b-11ec-8769-2f4ecdf7a2ad_story.html.
10 Julian E. Barnes and Helene Cooper, “Aiming to Avert War with Information,” New York Times, February 13, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/12/us/politics/russia-information-putin-biden.html; Andrew E. Kramer, Anton Troianovski, and Michael D. Shear, “West Sees Buildup of Russian Force, Not a Drawdown,” New York Times, February 17, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/16/world/europe/ukraine-russia-putin-nato.html.
11 Michael Schwirtz, David E. Sanger, and Mark Landler, “Russia is Said to Plot for Ally to Rule in Kyiv,” New York Times, January 23, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/22/world/europe/ukraine-russia-coup-britain.html.
12 David E. Sanger, “U.S. Says Moscow Sent Saboteurs To Roil Ukraine,” New York Times, January 15, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukraine-us-intelligence.html; Julian E. Barnes, “Russia Planned a Fake Video to Ignite War, U.S. Says,” New York Times, February 3, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/us/politics/russia-ukraine-invasion-pretext.html.
13 Andrew E. Kramer and Anton Troianovski, “Fear of War Rises as Shelling Pelts Eastern Ukraine,” New York Times, February 18, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/world/europe/ukraine-conflict-russia-military.html; Victor Jack, “NATO has ‘seen’ Russian false-flag attempts in Ukraine, Stoltenberg says,” Politico, February 17, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-has-seen-attempts-at-russian-false-flag-operation-ukraine-says-alliance-chief/.
14 Nahal Toosi, “Spy world wary as Biden team keeps leaking Russia intel,” Politico, February 8, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/08/spy-world-biden-leaking-russia-intel-00006956#:~:text=The%20Biden%20administration%20has%20gone,attack%20that%20justifies%20an%20invasion.
15 Michael Schwirtz and Andrew E. Kramer, “Ukraine Rebukes U.S. Over Claims Attack Is Close,” New York Times, January 29, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/28/world/europe/biden-ukraine-russia-diplomacy.html.
16 Julian E. Barnes and Helene Cooper, “Aiming to Avert War with Information.”
17 David Ingram, “Google is Trying Out ‘Pre-Bunking’ to Counter Misinformation,” NBC News, August 24, 2022, https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/misinformation/google-trying-pre-bunking-effort-counter-misinformation-rcna43818.
18 Shane Harris et al., “Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion,” Washington Post, August 16, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/.
19 Michael Crowley and David E. Sanger, “In Response to Russia, U.S. and Allies Open Areas for Negotiations,” New York Times, January 27, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/russia-demands-us-ukraine.html.
20 David E. Sanger, “As Fears of an Invasion Grow, Diplomatic Options Remain,” New York Times, January 25, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/us/politics/us-russia-ukraine-war.html.
21 Steven Erlanger, “NATO Haunted by Ukraine Vow As Putin Looms,” New York Times, December 9, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/08/world/europe/nato-ukraine-russia-dilemma.html.
22 Michael Schwirtz, “On Ukrainian Front, Wearily Awaiting the Worst,” New York Times, December 7, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-front.html; also see Ukraine Conflict Update from Institute for the Study of War for Feb. 19, 2022 on provocations by proxy forces, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-2.
23 Harris and Sonne, “Russia planning massive military offensive,” Washington Post, December 3, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russia-ukraine-invasion/2021/12/03/98a3760e-546b-11ec-8769-2f4ecdf7a2ad_story.html; Helene Cooper and Julian E. Barnes, “U.S. Is Considering Giving Ukraine Real-Time Details Should Russia Start Attack,” New York Times, December 24, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/us/politics/russia-ukraine-military-biden.html.
24 David E. Sanger, “Finland and Sweden Embraced by NATO, but Ukraine Must Wait,” New York Times, May 13, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/12/us/politics/nato-finland-sweden-ukraine.html; Melissa Eddy, “In Turnaround, Germany Vows Military Boost,” New York Times, February 28, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-ukraine-russia.html; On the incompleteness of Germany’s transformation, see Katrin Bennhold and Steven Erlanger, “Germany Vowed to Turn Away From Russia, but It Might Be Wavering,” New York Times, April 13, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/world/europe/germany-russia-ukraine-war.html.
25 For instance, see Joel Wuthnow et al. (eds.), Crossing the Strait (Washington, D.C.: NDU Press, 2022).
26 See Michael Crowley, “U.S. Drawing a Line Against Putin in Europe,” Politico, November 1, 2015, https://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/united-states-vladimir-putin-europe-russia-215401.
27 Allen S. Whiting, “China’s Use of Force, 1950-1996, and Taiwan,” International Security 26, no. 2 (2001): 104.
28 Wang Jisi and Xu Hui, “Pattern of Sino-American Crises: A Chinese Perspective,” in Michael D. Swaine and Zhang Tuosheng, eds., Managing Sino-American Crises (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006), 141.
29 John Culver, “How We Would Know When China Is Preparing to Invade Taiwan,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 3, 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/03/how-we-would-know-when-china-is-preparing-to-invade-taiwan-pub-88053.
30 “US Hegemony and its Perils,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, February 2023, https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/wjbxw/202302/t20230220_11027664.html.
31 Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, China’s Search for Security (New York: Columbia University Press, 2012), 220.
32 Evan Braden Montgomery, “Counterfeit Diplomacy and Mobilization in Democracies,” Security Studies 22, no. 1 (2013).
33 Oriana Skylar Mastro, “Invasions are Not Contagious,” Foreign Affairs, March 3, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/taiwan/2022-03-03/invasions-are-not-contagious.
34 For critiques, see Marc Trachtenberg, “The Meaning of Mobilization in 1914,” International Security 15, no. 3 (1990-91); and Norrin M. Ripsman and Jack Levy, “Wishful Thinking or Buying Time?” International Security 33, no. 2 (2008).
35 Julian E. Barnes and Helene Cooper, “Aiming to Avert War with Information,” New York Times, February 13, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/12/us/politics/russia-information-putin-biden.html.
36 James G. Hershberg, “The Cuban Missile Crisis,” in Melvyn P. Leffler and Odd Arne Westad (eds.), The Cambridge History of the Cold War, Vol. II (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2010), 77.
37 Sheldon M. Stern, Averting the Final Failure: John F. Kennedy and the Secret Cuban Missile Crisis Meetings (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2003), 97-98, 100.
38 Ibid., 97-98.
39 Ernest R. May and Philip D. Zelikow (eds.), The Kennedy Tapes (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 2001), 75, 79, 96, 124.
40 Ibid, 68.
41 Ibid, 386.
42 Christopher P. Twomey, “The Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis is Just Starting,” War on the Rocks, August 22, 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis-is-just-starting/.
43 Gordon H. Chang, “To the Nuclear Brink: Eisenhower, Dulles, and the Quemoy-Matsu Crisis,” International Security 12, no. 4 (1988).
44 “Memorandum of Conversation Between the President and the Secretary of State,” April 11, 1955, Foreign Relations of the United State 1955-1957, vol. II (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1986), 475-476.
45 Fredrik Logevall, Choosing War (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1999), 198-203; John M. Schuessler, Deceit on the Road to War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press), 91-98, 105-109.