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Notes
1 C. Kiriloff, “The Early Relations Between Russia and China,” New Zealand Slavonic Journal, no. 4 (1969): 15-16, https://www.jstor.org/stable/45278730.
2 Lorenz M. Lüthi, The Sino-Soviet Split: Cold War in the Communist World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008), 41.
3 Håvard Hegre et al, “Trade Does Promote Peace: New Simultaneous Estimates of the Reciprocal Effects of Trade and Conflict,” Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 6 (2010): 763, http://www.jstor.org/stable/20798962.
4 Paul Mozur, Aaron Krolik, and Keith Bradsher, “As War in Ukraine Grinds On, China Helps Refill Russian Drone Supplies,” New York Times, March 21, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/business/russia-china-drones-ukraine-war.html.
5 “Russia, China Sign New Agreements, Defying Western Criticism,” Al Jazeera, May 24, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/24/on-beijing-visit-russian-pm-hails-unprecedented-china-ties; Laura He, “Russia Predicts Trade with China Will Hit Record $200 Billion in 2023,” CNN, May 24, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/24/economy/russia-china-trade-new-record-intl-hnk/index.html.
6 David Dodwell, “China-Russia ‘No Limits’ Relationship Should Be Taken with a Pinch of Salt,” South China Morning Post, July 16, 2022, https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3185389/china-russia-no-limits-relationship-should-be-taken-pinch-salt?module=inline&pgtype=article.
7 Emily Feng and Charles Maynes, “The Leaders of China and Russia Have Finished Talks. Here Are Some Takeaways,” NPR, March 22, 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/03/22/1165066688/xi-jinping-putin-talks-china-russia-ukraine.
8 U.S. Energy Information Administration, “China 2022 Primary Energy Data,” 2022, https://www.eia.gov/international/overview/country/CHN; “Energy Industry,” Economist Intelligence Unit, 2024, https://www.eiu.com/industry/energy.
9 Institute of Economics and Research of China National Petroleum Company, China Natural Gas Development Report, Petroleum Industry Press, July 2023, http://www.nea.gov.cn/2023-07/21/c_1310733569.htm; Andrew Mills and Maha El Dahan, “QatarEnergy, China’s National Petroleum Corp to Sign 27-Year LNG Deal,” Reuters, June 20, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/qatarenergy-chinas-national-petroleum-corp-sign-27-year-lng-deal-sources-2023-06-20/.
10 “China Foreign Direct Investment,” CEIC Data (1998-2023), https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/foreign-direct-investment; Henry Foy, “Russia Struggles to Attract Chinese Capital to Its Far East,” Financial Times, May 5, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/d4cf3486-681b-11e9-a79d-04f350474d62.
11 “China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank freezes Russia lending,” Reuters, March 3, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-led-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-freezes-russia-lending-2022-03-03/.
12 Edward White, “China’s Belt and Road spending in Russia drops to zero,” Financial Times, July 24, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/470e2518-410b-4e78-9106-cf881dd43028.
13 Max Seddon, “Russia-China gas pipeline deal stalls over Beijing’s price demands,” Financial Times, June 3, 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/f7a34e3e-bce9-4db9-ac49-a092f382c526.
14 National Intelligence Council, “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World,” March 2021, https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf.
15 Robin Wigglesworth, “The Implications of China’s Mid-Income Trap,” Financial Times, February 26, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/a998c1bc-7632-47c1-baba-6ccd6aaef96e.
16 Iori Kawate, “Foreign investment in China turns negative for first time,” Nikkei Asia, November 4, 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Foreign-investment-in-China-turns-negative-for-first-time; “China's leaders pledge to spur domestic demand, economic recovery in 2024,” Reuters, December 8, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-politburo-meets-economic-work-2024-state-media-2023-12-08/.
17 Alicia García-Herrero, “China’s Weak Recovery Is Turning Off Investors,” Financial Times, May 31, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/031001b1-2f5b-4a8d-b19e-589d205d568a.
18 Mared Gwyn Jones, “EU trade with Russia drops to below 2% of share – Eurostat,” Euro News, September 1, 2023, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/09/01/eu-trade-with-russia-drops-to-below-2-of-share-eurostat.
19 Lüthi, The Sino-Soviet Split: Cold War in the Communist World, 76.
20 Ellie Cook, “Putin Ally Lashes Out at China,” Newsweek, November 21, 2023, https://www.newsweek.com/putin-vladimir-solovyov-china-xi-jinping-joe-biden-1845468.
21 National Intelligence Council, “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World.”
22 “Russia’s Far North Could Be Arable in 20-30 Years As Permafrost Melts – Minister” Moscow Times, September 7, 2021, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/05/12/russias-far-north-could-be-arable-in-20-30-years-as-permafrost-melts-minister-a73863.
23 V.N. Surovtsev et. al, “Risk Assessment and Directions of Adaptation of Agriculture in the North-West of Russia under Climate Change,” Reg. Ecol. 6 (2015): 13–21, www.ecosafety-spb.ru/images/stories/Publications/RegionalEcology/2015_6(41).pdf; N.M. Tchebakova, N. M., E. I. Parfenova, G. I. Lysanova and A. J. Soja, “Agroclimatic potential across central Siberia in an altered twenty-first century,” Environmental Research Letters 6, no. 4 (2011): 10, https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/agroclimatic-potential-across-central-siberia/docview/2551247330/se-2.
24 National Intelligence Council, “Russia: Impact of Climate Change to 2030” (2009), https://permanent.fdlp.gov/lps122080/climate2030_russia.pdf.
25 Dengpan Xiao, et al., “Designing High-Yielding Maize Ideotypes to Adapt Changing Climate in the North China Plain,” Agricultural Systems 181 (2020): 102805, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102805; Zunfu Lv et. al, “Climate change impacts on regional rice production in china,” Climatic Change 147, no. 3 (2018): 523-537, https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v147y2018i3d10.1007_s10584-018-2151-0.html; Pengfei Wen, et al., “Adaptability of Wheat to Future Climate Change: Effects of Sowing Date and Sowing Rate on Wheat Yield in Three Wheat Production Regions in the North China Plain,” Science of The Total Environment, 901 (2023); Suchul Kang and Elfatih A.B. Eltahir, “North China Plain Threatened by Deadly Heatwaves Due to Climate Change and Irrigation,” Nature Communications 9 (2018), https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y; Lihua Lv et al,“Winter Wheat Grain Yield and Its Components in the North China Plain: Irrigation Management, Cultivation, and Climate,” Chilean Journal of Agricultural Research 73, no. 3 (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-58392013000300005.
26 Ling Yao, et al., “Satellite-Derived Aridity Index Reveals China’s Drying in Recent Two Decades,” iScience, 26, no. 3 (2023), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106185; Xing-Guo Mo, et al., “Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Water Resources and Adaptation on the North China Plain,” Advances in Climate Change Research 8, no. 2 (2017).
27 Bo Wang, et al. “Reducing Water Productivity Gap by Optimizing Irrigation Regime for Winter Wheat-Summer Maize System in the North China Plain,” Agricultural Water Management, 280 (2023): 108229, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108229.
28 “Russia’s supplies of agricultural products to China rise by 44% in 2022,” TASS, February 9, 2023, https://tass.com/economy/1574235.
29 Russia and China sign largest contract for grain supply,” TASS, October 17, 2023, https://tass.com/economy/1692339.
30 Richard Gudaj, et al., American Journal of Economics and Sociology 79, no. 5 (2020): 1517.
31 Michael O’Hanlon, “China’s Shrinking Population and Constraints on Its Future Power,” Brookings, April 23, 2023, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/chinas-shrinking-population-and-constraints-on-its-future-power/.
32 Christina Lu, “Climate Change Could Drown China’s Food Security,” Foreign Policy, September 8, 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/08/china-climate-change-food-security-flood-agriculture/; Chenchen Ding, et al. “Study on the Impact of Climate Change on China's Import Trade of Major Agricultural Products and Adaptation Strategies,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (2022), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9653581/.
33 A. Di Paola, et al, “The expansion of wheat thermal suitability of Russia in response to climate change,” Land Use Policy 78 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.06.035.
34 James Siebens, “China’s Use of Armed Coercion: To Win Without Fighting,” Stimson Center, November 17, 2023, https://www.stimson.org/2023/chinas-use-of-armed-coercion-to-win-without-fighting/.
35 F.B. Chang and S.T. Rucker-Chang, eds., Chinese Migrants in Russia, Central Asia and Eastern Europe, (Routledge, 2011), https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203804438; Eric Hyer, “Dreams and Nightmares: Chinese Trade and Immigration in the Russian Far East,” Journal of East Asian Affairs 10, no. 2 (1996), https://www.jstor.org/stable/23255712.
36 Xiaochen Su, “The Myth of a Chinese Takeover in the Russian Far East,” Diplomat, June 19, 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/the-myth-of-a-chinese-takeover-in-the-russian-far-east/.
37 Gudaj, et al., American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 1518.
38 Xiaochen Su, “The Myth of a Chinese Takeover in the Russian Far East.”
39 David Brennan, “Russia Breaks Silence Over China Map Claiming Its Territory,” Newsweek, September 1, 2023, https://www.newsweek.com/russia-breaks-silence-china-map-disputed-islands-1823983; David Brennan, “Together and Apart: The Conundrum of the China-Russia Partnership,” Asia Society, October 11, 2023, https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/together-and-apart-conundrum-china-russia-partnership.
40 Eugene Kogan, “A Ticking Bomb? - Chinese Immigration to Russia’s Far East - European Security & Defence,” European Security & Defense, May 14, 2019, https://euro-sd.com/2019/05/articles/13223/a-ticking-bomb-chinese-immigration-to-russias-far-east/.
41 John Pollock and Damien Symon, “China’s High-Stakes Incursion in the Heights of Bhutan,” Chatham House, September 29, 2022, https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2022-10/chinas-high-stakes-incursion-heights-bhutan; “Bhutan,” International Fund for Agricultural Development, accessed December 28, 2023, https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/w/country/bhutan.
42 Ze Jiang et. al, “Future changes in rice yields over the mekong river delta due to climate change—Alarming or alerting?,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology 137, no. 1-2 (2019): 545-555.
43 “Overfishing fuels South China Sea tensions, risks armed conflict, researcher says,” Radio Free Asia, May 1, 2022, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/southchinasea-fisheries-01052022141237.html.
44 M. Tarakanov, “Food Production in Irkutsk Oblast: Issues, Prospects,” Problems of Economic Transition 58, no. 7-9, (2016), 571-586, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10611991.2016.1251201?journalCode=mpet20.
45 Kogan, “A Ticking Bomb? - Chinese Immigration to Russia’s Far East - European Security & Defence.”
46 Darren Dodd, “Ukraine War and the West’s Relations with China Reshape Global Trade,” Financial Times, September 18, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/6690df3b-f515-4955-8583-317f14a6ef14.
47 Tom Polansek and Karl Plume, “China signs US agriculture purchase agreements in first ceremony in years,” Reuters, October 24, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N3BU1T6/.