What Makes People Reoffend? Predictors of Reconviction – A 2-year Longitudinal Study

ABSTRACT

Male offenders constitute a substantial proportion of the whole male prison population. A comparison of recidivism rates in the entire world shows that the return to criminal behavior ranges from 9% to even 79%. Recent studies indicate that a risk for criminal reoffending is based on many different factors. The aim of the study was to determine the influence of personality, criminal thinking styles, stress coping styles, moral feelings, some aspects of socialization and crime characteristics on reoffending. This longitudinal study was conducted twice over the course of two years and involved 247 male prison inmates housed in 20 Polish prisons. Recidivism and other penitentiary data were obtained from administrative records. Independent sample t-tests were used to indicate differences between recidivists and non-recidivists. Logistic multiple linear regression analyses were used to test the potential predictive value of the potential risk factors for recidivism. The overall recidivism rate was 35%. The study findings showed that sentimentality, shame, the type of the correctional facility, the criminal record, and the type of the inmate’s upbringing had an impact on recidivism while therapeutic methods and a sense of contrition could decrease the probability of reoffending.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

¹ The Research Ethics Committee of the Council in the Faculty of Pedagogy and Psychology of the University of Silesia is similar to U.S. Institutional Review Board (IRB). In Poland, each University has its own ethical review board. The research ethics board gives its opinion when there are doubts regarding the ethical aspects of a research project (in this study the researcher decided to ask the board for permission because prisoners are a specific group that can be exposed to abuse).

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Notes on contributors

Wiola Friedrich

Wiola Friedrich, PhD, is a psychologist and a lawer. She is an assistant professor at Institute of Psychology, University of Silesia. Her research spans various topics in psychology and law, with particular interest in penitentiary diagnose, psychological characteristics of offenders, the role of a psychologist in a criminal trial, the use of psychological knowledge in law. She is the author of many publication such as: Friedrich, W. (2021). A Polish adaptation of Self-Stigma of Individuals with Criminal Records - SSICR. Journal of Social Rehabilitation. no 21. 363–380. Friedrich, W. (2020). Women in Prisons. Personality and Temperamental Characteristics. Personality and Individual Differences. Vol. 167 (2020), art. no. 110218, s. 1-3. Pilch, I., Baran, L., Bolek-Kochanowska, M., Bożek, M., Friedrich, W., Hyla, M., Sikora, J., (2018). Situational suppression use and social hierarchy in non-individualistic and hierarchic society: A replication study. Journal of Research in Personality. 74 (2018) 114–123. She also served as a psychologist at prison working with inmates and gathering her experience. She also participated in many conferences, including different areas of forensic psychology, organized in Poland and in Europe.