Forecasting the Effectiveness of Policy Implementation Strategies

Abstract

Primarily, policies are intended to address economic, social and environmental problems. When implementing a policy, any government will be faced with the decision as to what strategy to adopt in order to meet the objectives set out by the policy in the most cost effective way. Several such Policy Implementation Strategies (PIS) may be available, making such a decision not so straightforward. With limited funds available, such a decision has particular importance for budgeting. This paper proposes forecasting PIS effectiveness as a decision support tool. The nature of Structured Analogies (SA) is considered suitable for generating such forecasts. A simpler version of SA, semi-structured analogies (S-SA), where experts do not need to recollect the exact outcome of analogies, is tested. Empirical findings suggest that in the hands of non-experts, the S-SA approach improves forecast accuracy when compared to unaided judgment. Accuracy improves further when forecasts are produced in groups.

Keywords:

• policy implementation
• strategy
• forecasting
• structured analogies
• judgement

Notes

¹Usually in the form of financial remuneration from the Government for adopting the new technology

²The extent to which the results of the task can be applied to every day working contexts.

³The degree to which expertise can be conditioned in the task domain in a useful manner (no feedback of accuracy will essentially waste the experience of a judge).