Planning for Industry in a Post-Industrial World

Abstract

Problem: Many metropolitan jurisdictions face contests over industrial land because growth in the industrial sector is slow while the office and retail sectors and population grow more rapidly. This article presents a methodology for planning and setting priorities for industrial land use under these circumstances.

Purpose: This article describes an approach to evaluating market demand for industrial land, applied here to Prince George's County, MD, in order to determine which industrial areas could be rezoned to alternate uses without causing major employment and tax losses to the county.

Methods: I led a team that included an urban planning colleague and graduate students in identifying three types of industrial land: economically healthy industrial districts; industrially zoned areas where there was evidence of conflict between industry and alternative residential, commercial, and office land uses; and areas zoned for industry where demand for industrial space and land was weak or nonexistent. The project used data from private data provider CoStar, the U.S. Department of Labor's Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, county zoning maps and tax records, Microsoft Map, and Google Map to assign each industrial district to one of five categories of demand, ranging from weakest (no history of industrial demand) to strongest (economically healthy industrial activity).

Results and Conclusions: Two estimates, one based on the projected absorption rate of industrial land over the next 10 years, and one on the industrial acreage exhibiting evidence of weak demand, both suggest a similarly large surplus of industrial land in the county. Further, rezoning and redeveloping industrial districts in the three weakest demand categories would cause the county to lose little industrial employment. Thus, all analyses reach consistent conclusions that the county should release some industrially zoned land for other uses while protecting some that is essential to the local economy.

Takeaway for Practice: This article presents a methodology for assessing industrial areas to determine where industrially zoned land could be rezoned at little loss to the local economy; where land use conflicts should be addressed with urban design or industrial land protections; and where industrial areas are economically healthy and important components of the regional economy. Comprehensive plans can improve the health of local economies by identifying districts where industrial activities are strong and essential to the regional economy and encouraging investment in those areas while accommodating and protecting them.

Research Support: This research evolved out of two years of work for Prince George's County, MD, by a team from the University of Maryland's urban planning program, supported by the Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission.

Keywords:

• industrial land use
• manufacturing employment
• industrial employment
• zoning
• land use

Acknowledgments

I conducted this research (Howland et al., 2010) with the assistance of Jim Cohen, Doan Bao Luu Nguyen, Scott Dempwolf, Amy Hofstra, and Laura Ainsman, and the support of Prince George's County, MD. In addition, the students in my urban studies and planning class at the University of Maryland did the legwork to analyze each industrial area in the county (Choi et al., 2008). I am grateful to Scott Gabor and CoStar for the use of CoStar data, Gerrit Knaap and the National Center for Smart Growth Education and Research for use of the establishment-level QCEW data, and to Michael Asante, Jacqueline Philson, Sonia Ewing, and Craig Rovelstad for their insights. I alone am responsible for any errors, and any opinions do not necessarily reflect those of Prince George's County government.

Marie Howland ([email protected]) is professor of urban studies and planning at the University of Maryland, College Park. She teaches economic development and is director of the Ph.D. program in urban and regional planning and design. She has a master's degree in city and regional planning from the University of California, Berkeley and a Ph.D. in urban and regional planning from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Notes

1. CoStar Group (2008, 2009, 2010) is a private provider of industrial and commercial real estate information, marketing and analytic services. Purchase of CoStar data and terms of use must be negotiated with CoStar.

2. “The QCEW program publishes a quarterly count of employment and wages reported by employers covering 98 percent of U.S. jobs, available at the county, MSA, state and national levels by industry” (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010). I obtained establishment-level QCEW data for this analysis from the Maryland Department of Labor and Licensing and Regulations through the National Center for Smart Growth at the University of Maryland. Different states have different arrangements for negotiating access to these data.

3. The study team was led by Marie Howland, Ph.D., and assisted by Jim Cohen, Ph.D., faculty in the Urban Studies and Planning Program at the University of Maryland. Postdoctoral student Doan Bao Luu Nguyen, Ph.D., student Scott Dempwolf, and masters students Amy Hofstra and Laura Ainsman assisted with the data collection, mapping, and business interviews.

4. County tax records list a NAICS code for the use occupying each taxable property, making it possible to classify each parcel by whether or not it is in industrial use.

5. When we presented the results of this study to the County Planning Board on May 27, 2010, there was some discussion about whether this requirement was excessive given that current growth in PDR employment was almost flat, but the study report took this as a constraint and did not challenge it.

6. Using the first, and more restrictive, definition (mentioned previously but not used in this study), the industrial sector still would account for nearly 64,970 jobs, or 25% of county employment (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009a).

7. The rental market is a better measure of current vacant space than owner-occupied buildings, which may have vacant space that never comes on the market. Moreover, current rental rates and changes in rents are not available for owner-occupied buildings.

8. The published QCEW (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009a) reported 83,735 PDR industrial workers in the county in 2007, but when the team mapped the establishment level data (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009b) to specific locations in the county, deleting observations where the locations made no sense, it yielded 74,841 PDR workers in the county in 2007.

9. The team obtained the original list of industrial businesses in Prince George's County from the commercial provider USADATA (2007), accessed through the Prince George's County Library.

10. The satellite images came from CoStar and free Microsoft MSRMaps (http://msrmaps.com/) and Google Map (http://maps.google.com/) websites.