Investigation of the dynamics of COVID-19 with SEIHR nonsingular and nonlocal kernel fractional model

ABSTRACT

We considered an SEIHR mathematical model to investigate the dynamics of COVID-19. Real data of COVID-19 confirmed cases are fitted to the model. The basic reproductive number is approximated to be $R_0\approx 2.16$. The most globally sensitive parameter of the basic reproductive number is the incubation period of coronavirus. The Atangana Baleanu fractional derivative in Caputo sense (ABC) representation of the model is formulated, and a numerical approximation developed by Toufik and Atangana is used. It is shown that decreasing the fractional-order leads to decreasing the infection of the virus in the infected compartments.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID-19
• an SEIHR model
• reproductive number
• ABC fractional derivative
• stability
• global sensitivity analysis

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Authors’ contributions

Conceptualization: Chernet Tuge Deresssa and Gemechis File Duressa, Formal analysis: Chernet Tuge Deresssa and Gemechis File Duressa, Visualization: Chernet Tuge Deresssa, Writing – original draft: Chernet Tuge Deresssa, Writing – review & editing, Gemechis File Duressa.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Chernet Tuge Deressa

Chernet Tuge Deressa is an Ethiopian citizen and defended his Ph.D. degree in Physical and Mathematical Sciences at the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia in June 2015. He is currently working as an associate professor of Mathematics at the Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences, Jimma University, Ethiopia. His research interest is mathematical modeling, stability analysis, bifurcation, and control analysis of nonlinear dynamic systems. He has more than 20 publications in national and international journals.

Gemechis File Duressa

Gemechis File Duressa is an Ethiopian citizen and defended his Ph. D. degree in Mathematics from the National Institute of Technology Warangal, India in 2014. He is currently a full professor of Mathematics at the Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences, Jimma University, Ethiopia. He has currently more than 90 publications in national and international journals. His research interest is in the numerical solutions of singularly perturbed differential equations.