An introduction to the IBMR, a hydro-economic model for climate change impact assessment in Pakistan’s Indus River basin

Abstract

The Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR) is a hydro-agro-economic optimization model for agricultural investment planning across Pakistan’s Indus Basin provinces. This study describes IBMR-2012, an update and modification of the model that reflects the current agro-economic conditions in Pakistan for the purpose of evaluating the impact of climate change on water allocation and food security. Results of hydro-climatic parameter sensitivity and basin-wide and provincial-level climate change impacts on crop productions are presented. The study finds that compared to Punjab, Sindh faces both significantly larger climate change impacts on agriculture and higher uncertainty regarding climate change impacts in the future.

Keywords:

• Indus Basin Model Revised
• Pakistan
• water allocation
• GCM uncertainty
• climate

Acknowledgements

The study was financially support by the World Bank project, Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture in the Indus Basin of Pakistan. The authors would like to thank Masood Ahmad at the World Bank for his help during the IBMR update process. The comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers and guest editors are also highly appreciated.