Integrated Evaluation of Egypt's Water Resources Plans

Abstract

Because of water scarcity, careful planning of water resources in Egypt is a necessity. A number of tools (models, database, GIS, Decision Support Systems [DSS]) already exist in Egypt that provide invaluable support. Yet planning may be greatly improved by an integrated evaluation of water resources plan alternatives. To achieve this goal, a prototype DSS was developed, which is based on a conceptual model of Egypt's Water Resources and associated Socio-economic and Environmental dynamic System (EWRSES). The model aims at capturing the complex network of relationships relevant to Egypt's development linked with water resources and land-use. Being a dynamic system model, it allows researchers to investigate whether the desired end-of-horizon state can be actually reached or not and how the system will evolve. The model is designed to generate the relevant information for a broad Strategic Environmental Assessment, or, more properly, an Integrated Evaluation, by addressing: i) the physical-technical performance of the system; ii) the quality of life of target groups of people; iii) the strategic decision making problem. The EWRSES model is a complex model where assumptions play a key role; its proper use is to support and enhance the logical thinking that policy makers and decision makers inevitably apply during the planning exercise. The added value of the DSS implementing EWRSES is the systemic approach and the holistic view it provides together with the capability to jump from one level of analysis and evaluation to another by investigating the reasons underlying a given outcome under explicit assumptions. This paper presents the conceptual framework of the DSS and of the EWRSES model, and gives details about the evaluation methodology adopted.

Keywords:

• Decision Support Systems
• integrated water resources planning and management
• decision making
• integrated evaluation
• Strategic Environmental Assessment
• sustainable development
• quality of life
• dynamic systems
• mathematical modeling