A modified Grey forecasting model for long‐term prediction

Abstract

Grey theory is a truly multidisciplinary and generic theory that deals with systems which are characterized by poor information and /or for which information is lacking. In this paper, a modified grey model, combined with a simple statistical method to determine the model coefficient and a sectional model, by using another variable to modify the original grey prediction model for long‐term forecasting, is proposed. This new method not only can improve the prediction accuracy of the original grey model, but also can make it suitable for long‐term forecasting. Finally, we use power demand forecasting in Taiwan for our case study to test the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Key words:

• grey theory
• modified GM(1,1) model
• long‐term forecasting

Notes

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