Changing relations of political power in South Africa's transition: the politics of conquering in conditions of stalemate

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the effect of changing power relations between the African National Congress (ANC) and the National Party (NP) government on the process and possible outcomes of the political transition in South Africa. The point of departure of the analysis is that the ANC and the Government entered into negotiations from a position of strategic stalemate. These two major negotiating parties started negotiating from positions of neither complete crisis or collapse, nor from absolute strength. Against the background of comparative literature on transitions to democracy, it is argued that in South Africa the notions of negotiation, transaction and pact‐formation are proscribed through the parties’ determination to use negotiations to achieve original, as opposed to compromised, objectives. They entered into negotiations with the goal of using negotiations to win their original demands. Over time changes set in. These changes are explained through identifying and analysing the phases and the turning points in the balance of power between the two parties. The period of analysis is September 1989 until October 1992.