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Abstract
This study investigates possible factors in prediction error for audience share for new prime-time television programmes in the USA and Korea. While previous studies have focused on the factors affecting the size of a programme's actual audience, little attention has been paid to the accuracy of audience share prediction. A total of 193 new prime-time TV programmes from 1994 to 1997 for the USA and from 1998 to 2001 for Korea were examined. Advertising industry forecasters' predicted audience share, and actual share data were accumulated from Broadcasting & Cable and Weekly Nielsen Reports. Findings show that the ‘Programme Type’, ‘Returning Lead-Ins’ and ‘Returning Lead-Outs’ worked as significant factors for estimating error in audience share in the USA, and ‘Programme Type’ and ‘Programme Length’ played major roles in forecasting error in Korea. The degrees of relationship with forecasting error are consistent with previous studies' findings. Similarities and dissimilarities in prediction error in both countries were found and are discussed in this study.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Chan Yun Yoo
Chan Yun Yoo earned his B.A. from Hanyang University (Seoul, Korea) and M.A. from the University of Texas at Austin. Currently, he is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Advertising at the University of Texas at Austin. His current research interests include new media advertising effectiveness, advertising media planning, and cross-cultural consumer behavior. His research appears in several academic conferences such as AAA, AEJMC, ICA, and SCP.
Hyo-Gyoo Kim
Hyo-Gyoo Kim received his B.A. from Korea University and M.A.s from Korea University and the University of Texas at Austin. He is currently a doctoral candidate in the Department of Advertising at the University of Texas at Austin. His research interests include interactive advertising, consumer behavior, and media planning.