Use of computerized models to reduce the consequences of major outbreaks of food-borne illness

Abstract

Food-borne outbreak modelling is a technique by which statistical methodologies and data are used to model various aspects of food contamination outbreaks, with the primary goal of helping to reduce the threat of food-borne illness. There are two primary approaches to such modelling: risk ranking and pathway analysis. These two approaches fulfil different needs and are used side by side to help mitigate the risks of food-borne outbreaks. The increasing severity and impact of food poisoning outbreaks are increasing the need for new techniques to enable rapid detection and response to outbreaks whilst they are still in process. One such novel technique is implemented in the ‘Consequence Management System’, a computerized model that uses a structured, phased form of pathway analysis to model the entire evolution of food-borne illnesses involving scenarios of contamination of specific food products with various agents. The results of these models help in the evaluation of the probable consequences of the scenarios, the optimal ways to intervene in their evolution to reduce these consequences, and the overall risk associated with different products and agents.

Keywords:

• food-borne outbreak modelling
• pathway analysis
• risk ranking

Acknowledgements

Parts of the work discussed herein were supported by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), through a grant awarded to the National Center for Food Protection and Defense at the University of Minnesota, by a contract from the US Food and Drug Administration, and by the DHS National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center through a subcontract with Battelle, Inc.